中国城市流动人口住房质量的空间分异与影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202112006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2015年全国1%人口抽样调查和2014年流动人口动态监测调查（CMDS）数据,本文以房屋面积、设施条件、建筑年代和社区类型来衡量流动人口住房质量,运用空间统计工具探讨了中国310个地级及以上行政单元流动人口住房质量的空间分异特征,进而通过空间计量模型考察流动人口住房质量的影响因素。研究发现：① 流动人口住房整体水平虽不及本地居民,但差距并不悬殊;② 流动人口住房质量的空间差异明显,中部地区流动人口住房质量最高,东部、西部和东北地区在住房质量4个方面各有劣势;③ 按照行政等级和规模等级划分,中等城市流动人口住房质量最好,超大城市住房质量最差;④ 流动人口住房质量呈现出显著的空间正相关,但各指标高、低值集聚区的分布格局存在一定差异;⑤ 流动人口个体（内部特征）和流入地（外部特征）因素对流动人口住房质量具有显著影响,分别作用于不同的方面;⑥ 中小城市和大城市流动人口住房质量的决定因素及作用强度不尽相同。

关键词: 中国, 城市, 流动人口, 住房质量, 空间分异, 影响因素

Abstract:

Based on data from the 1% National Population Sample Survey 2015 and the 2014 China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey (CMDS), the paper selects four indicators to measure housing quality of the migrant population including floor area, housing facilities, construction period and living communities (urban or rural) and discusses the phenomenon about spatial differentiation of migrant populations' housing quality in 310 prefecture- and provincial-level cities in China, using GIS spatial analysis methods such as Moran's I coefficient and Getis-Ord G_i^*. Besides, we investigate the influencing factors of migrant populations' housing quality. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) Compared with the local residents, the housing quality of the migrants is not that worse. (2) The spatial distribution of housing quality of migrant population presents marked spatial differentiation on cities of different levels and scales, population sizes and geographical divisions. (3) The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrate that there is a significant positive spatial correlation in the indicators of the migrant population's housing quality on a national scale, and identify the phenomenon of their spatial clustering and the centers of such spatial clustering. (4) The housing quality is influenced by both internal factors of migrant population and external factors of in-flow cities. (5) Population, economic development and the housing market play different roles in the housing quality of migrant population.

Key words: China, cities, migrant population, housing quality, spatial differentiation, influencing factor

王宇凡, 柴康妮, 卓云霞, 冯长春. 中国城市流动人口住房质量的空间分异与影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(12): 2944-2963.

WANG Yufan, CHAI Kangni, ZHUO Yunxia, FENG Changchun. Spatial variation of migrant population's housing quality and its determinants in China's prefecture-level cities[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(12): 2944-2963.

图/表 10

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

表2

图5

表3

变量描述性统计

类型	变量名称	变量描述	均值(标准差)
房屋面积	Area	城市流动人口平均家庭住房建筑面积(m²)	97.179(24.853)
设施条件	Facility	住房内有独立使用的厨房的流动人口占比与住房内有独立使用的厕所的流动人口占比的乘积	0.717(0.191)
建筑年代	Buildage	住房建成年代在2000年后的流动人口占比	0.585(0.118)
社区性质	Community	社区性质为居委会的流动人口占比	0.749(0.224)
户籍制度	Crossprov	流入地跨省迁移流动人口与总流动人口之比	0.389(0.239)
	Rural	流入地乡—城流动人口与总流动人口之比	0.844(0.095)
家庭人口	Age	流动人口平均年龄(岁)	34.556(1.823)
	Single	从未结过婚的流动人口占比	0.196(0.091)
	Child	流动人口平均子女数量(个)	1.137(0.218)
	Family	流动人口本地家庭成员数量与家庭总规模之比	0.852(0.084)
流动属性	Purpose	迁移目的为务工经商的流动人口占比	0.872(0.096)
	Length	流动人口平均停留时间(年)	4.482(1.658)
	Stay	拥有在流入地停留5年以上意愿的流动人口占比	0.563(0.158)
教育经济	Education	受教育水平在大专及以上的流动人口占比	0.117(0.073)
	Job	雇员流动人口占比	0.453(0.181)
	Security	有社保的流动人口占比	0.209(0.130)
	lnIncome	流动人口平均家庭月总收入(取对数)	8.572(0.227)
住房特征	Ownership	流动人口住房自有率	0.194(0.168)
	lnRentexp	流动人口租户平均月租金支出(取对数)	6.588(0.399)
人口	lnPopulation	流入地总人口(取对数)	15.046(0.761)
	Migrant	流入地流动人口与总人口之比	0.091(0.119)
经济发展	lnGDP	流入地人均GDP(取对数)	10.662(0.544)
	Sector2	流入地第二产业占比	0.491(0.098)
	Sector3	流入地第三产业占比	0.386(0.091)
	lnPublic	流入地人均公共财政支出(取对数)	8.957(0.422)
房地产市场	lnPrice	流入地商品住宅平均售价(取对数)	8.586(0.435)
	lnRent	流入地商品住宅平均租金(取对数)	5.289(0.319)
	Land	流入地居住用地面积与城镇建设用地总面积之比	0.322(0.085)
	lnInvest	流入地地均商品住宅开发投资完成额(取对数)	18.596(1.335)

表3

表4

中国流动人口住房质量影响因素的模型估计结果

				(5) 房屋面积		(6) 设施条件		(7) 建筑年代		(8) 社区性质		(9) 房屋面积		(10) 设施条件		(11) 建筑年代		(12) 社区性质
Crossprov				-16.481^***		-0.184^***		-0.078^**		-0.328^***		-21.724^***		-0.156^**		-0.072^*		-0.318^***
				(5.682)		(0.054)		(0.036)		(0.063)		(6.707)		(0.062)		(0.042)		(0.069)
Rural				-38.488^***		0.014		-0.057		-0.588^***		-13.292		0.058		0.002		-0.534^***
				(13.526)		(0.121)		(0.087)		(0.154)		(18.198)		(0.157)		(0.118)		(0.193)
Age				-3.837^***		0.016^**		-0.015^***		-0.005		-2.573^***		0.017^**		-0.010		0.020^**
				(0.796)		(0.007)		(0.005)		(0.009)		(0.921)		(0.008)		(0.006)		(0.010)
Single				2.077		0.119		0.064		-0.171		23.641		0.168		0.060		0.229
				(18.310)		(0.180)		(0.117)		(0.209)		(20.245)		(0.200)		(0.130)		(0.214)
Child				19.612^**		-0.178^**		0.014		-0.057		23.803^***		-0.182^**		-0.005		-0.176^**
				(8.177)		(0.084)		(0.052)		(0.093)		(8.395)		(0.088)		(0.054)		(0.088)
Family				-77.287^***		0.098		-0.060		0.214		-57.521^***		0.090		0.000		0.133
				(15.481)		(0.141)		(0.098)		(0.175)		(18.480)		(0.162)		(0.119)		(0.196)
Purpose												25.092^*		0.229^*		0.202^**		0.128
												(13.989)		(0.126)		(0.090)		(0.148)
Length												-1.110		-0.010		0.002		-0.015
												(0.913)		(0.008)		(0.006)		(0.010)
Stay												-5.528		0.074		0.034		0.248^**
												(11.386)		(0.096)		(0.074)		(0.121)
Education												26.006		0.014		0.176		-0.066
												(24.383)		(0.213)		(0.157)		(0.259)
Job												-12.609		-0.142^*		-0.002		-0.287^***
												(9.666)		(0.086)		(0.062)		(0.102)
Security												26.831^**		0.110		-0.076		0.066
												(13.346)		(0.115)		(0.086)		(0.141)
lnIncome												12.505^*		-0.024		-0.013		0.094
												(6.847)		(0.059)		(0.044)		(0.072)
Ownership												0.415		0.053		-0.028		-0.212^*
												(11.222)		(0.100)		(0.073)		(0.119)
	(1) 房屋面积	(2) 设施条件	(3) 建筑年代	(4) 社区性质	(5) 房屋面积		(6) 设施条件		(7) 建筑年代		(8) 社区性质		(9) 房屋面积		(10) 设施条件		(11) 建筑年代		(12) 社区性质
lnRentexp													-3.425		-0.047		0.042^*		0.122^***
													(3.791)		(0.034)		(0.024)		(0.040)
lnPopulation	-2.112	-0.014	0.011	0.032	-2.516		-0.022		0.000		-0.001		-3.689^*		-0.025		-0.009		-0.032
	(2.190)	(0.019)	(0.013)	(0.025)	(2.094)		(0.018)		(0.014)		(0.023)		(2.091)		(0.019)		(0.014)		(0.022)
Migrant	-35.533^**	-0.092	0.149^*	-0.045	-50.559^***		-0.015		0.112		0.179		-63.468^***		-0.051		0.154		0.244
	(15.047)	(0.149)	(0.09)	(0.173)	(14.983)		(0.145)		(0.095)		(0.169)		(16.088)		(0.153)		(0.102)		(0.168)
lnGDP	-1.734	0.085^**	0.011	0.000	6.963^*		0.053		0.027		-0.060		8.401^*		0.072^*		0.020		-0.021
	(4.188)	(0.041)	(0.026)	(0.049)	(4.199)		(0.040)		(0.027)		(0.048)		(4.288)		(0.041)		(0.028)		(0.045)
Sector2	-38.857	-0.061	-0.057	-0.404	-72.770^***		0.031		-0.161		-0.158		-80.689^***		-0.039		-0.101		-0.172
	(24.96)	(0.242)	(0.153)	(0.292)	(23.891)		(0.235)		(0.153)		(0.273)		(23.891)		(0.240)		(0.154)		(0.254)
Sector3	-52.515^*	0.072	0.145	-0.711^**	-58.003^**		0.190		0.118		-0.407		-62.054^**		0.170		0.164		-0.385
	(27.429)	(0.262)	(0.168)	(0.320)	(25.718)		(0.252)		(0.165)		(0.293)		(25.433)		(0.254)		(0.164)		(0.269)
lnPublic	-15.334^***	-0.110^***	0.012	0.075	-12.295^***		-0.115^***		0.017		0.020		-12.582^***		-0.118^***		0.006		-0.047
	(4.119)	(0.038)	(0.025)	(0.048)	(3.917)		(0.037)		(0.025)		(0.045)		(3.964)		(0.038)		(0.026)		(0.042)
lnPrice	-3.200	-0.005	-0.093^***	-0.047	-7.678		0.017		-0.095^***		0.009		-7.853		0.016		-0.102^***		0.009
	(5.495)	(0.053)	(0.034)	(0.064)	(5.324)		(0.051)		(0.034)		(0.061)		(5.342)		(0.050)		(0.034)		(0.057)
lnRent	10.639	0.090	0.000	-0.066	9.276		0.078		0.003		-0.019		9.246		0.085		0.010		-0.037
	(7.010)	(0.068)	(0.043)	(0.082)	(6.892)		(0.066)		(0.044)		(0.079)		(6.923)		(0.066)		(0.045)		(0.073)
Land	4.642	0.078	-0.001	0.122	5.211		0.082		0.029		0.096		9.896		0.049		0.035		0.098
	(12.894)	(0.107)	(0.079)	(0.151)	(12.163)		(0.105)		(0.078)		(0.139)		(12.001)		(0.105)		(0.077)		(0.127)
lnInvest	0.519	0.004	0.001	-0.005	0.142		0.004		-0.001		-0.005		0.019		0.005		-0.002		-0.009*
	(0.466)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.439)		(0.004)		(0.003)		(0.005)		(0.437)		(0.004)		(0.003)		(0.005)
λ	0.339^***		0.177^***		0.252^***				0.154^**				0.203^***				0.150^**
	(0.057)		(0.062)		(0.057)				(0.062)				(0.057)				(0.061)
ρ		0.597^***					0.578^***								0.580^***
		(0.057)					(0.058)								(0.058)
N	275	275	275	275	275		275		275		275		275		275		275		275
R²	0.451	0.388	0.094	0.109	0.535		0.446		0.155		0.298		0.564		0.461		0.200		0.452

表4

表5

中国流动人口住房质量影响因素的模型估计结果：不同规模城市间的异质性作用

	房屋面积			设施条件			建筑年代			社区性质
	(1) 中小城市	(2) 大城市	组间系数差异 SUR检验	(3) 中小城市	(4) 大城市	组间系数差异 SUR检验	(5) 中小城市	(6) 大城市	组间系数差异 SUR检验	(7) 中小城市	(8) 大城市	组间系数差异 SUR检验
Crossprov	-37.026^***	-7.796	-29.23^**	-0.242^***	0.010	-0.253^**	-0.078	-0.054	-0.024	-0.320^***	-0.197	-0.123
	(9.585)	(8.133)		(0.086)	(0.114)		(0.059)	(0.072)		(0.085)	(0.139)
Rural	-5.825	-10.092	4.267	0.010	-0.649	0.659	-0.070	0.295	-0.365	-0.554^**	-1.977^***	1.423^***
	(23.908)	(37.235)		(0.215)	(0.523)		(0.148)	(0.329)		(0.213)	(0.638)
Age	-2.637^**	-2.101	-0.536	0.022^**	0.002	0.021	-0.013^*	0.017	-0.030^**	0.023^**	-0.020	0.043^*
	(1.196)	(1.607)		(0.011)	(0.023)		(0.007)	(0.014)		(0.011)	(0.028)
Single	33.420	36.898	-3.478	-0.006	0.138	-0.144	0.020	0.159	-0.139	0.334	-0.100	0.434
	(27.795)	(29.840)		(0.250)	(0.419)		(0.172)	(0.263)		(0.247)	(0.511)
Child	28.469^***	31.617^*	-3.149	-0.223^**	0.339	-0.562^***	0.010	0.004	0.006	-0.138	-0.242	0.104
	(10.792)	(15.950)		(0.097)	(0.224)		(0.067)	(0.141)		(0.096)	(0.273)
Family	-62.556^***	14.608	-77.164	-0.049	1.571^***	-1.620^***	-0.060	0.705^*	-0.764^**	0.066	-0.149	0.216
	(23.944)	(39.558)		(0.215)	(0.555)		(0.148)	(0.349)		(0.213)	(0.677)
Purpose	21.805	17.101	4.704	0.214	0.951^**	-0.737^**	0.208^*	0.261	-0.053	0.228	0.163	0.064
	(17.970)	(32.769)		(0.161)	(0.460)		(0.111)	(0.289)		(0.160)	(0.561)
Length	-1.388	-2.148	0.760	-0.008	-0.067^**	0.058^**	0.002	-0.017	0.019	-0.016	-0.041	0.025
	(1.165)	(1.875)		(0.010)	(0.026)		(0.007)	(0.017)		(0.010)	(0.032)
Stay	-0.392	-31.367	30.975	0.024	-0.477	0.500	0.081	-0.307	0.388^**	0.214	0.979^**	-0.764^**
	(14.618)	(25.310)		(0.131)	(0.355)		(0.091)	(0.223)		(0.130)	(0.433)
Education	18.592	27.207	-8.615	0.173	-0.058	0.231	0.109	0.053	0.056	-0.097	-1.217^*	1.12^*
	(33.377)	(38.674)		(0.300)	(0.543)		(0.207)	(0.341)		(0.297)	(0.662)
Job	-7.035	-30.292	23.256	-0.111	-0.349	0.238	0.049	-0.089	0.138	-0.283^**	-0.448	0.165
	(12.759)	(19.829)		(0.115)	(0.278)		(0.079)	(0.175)		(0.114)	(0.340)
Security	41.291^**	9.107	32.184	0.098	0.729^***	-0.631^***	-0.103	0.144	-0.248	-0.012	0.122	-0.134
	(19.311)	(17.439)		(0.173)	(0.245)		(0.120)	(0.154)		(0.172)	(0.299)
lnIncome	18.173^**	7.406	10.767	0.029	-0.627^***	0.656^***	0.028	-0.164	0.192^*	0.095	-0.065	0.16
	(8.734)	(14.507)		(0.078)	(0.204)		(0.054)	(0.128)		(0.078)	(0.248)

表5

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类别	影响因素	研究理论基础	选取指标
流动人口特征	户籍制度因素	制度文化理论	户籍所在地、户籍性质
	家庭人口因素	生命周期理论效用经济学理论	性别、年龄、婚姻、子女数量、家庭规模、家庭迁移比例、迁移目的
	流动因素	社会融合理论	在流入地的停留时间、定居落户意愿、社会资本、居住社区
	教育经济因素	社会分层理论人力资本理论效用经济学理论	受教育程度、就业身份、职业类型、单位性质、社保、住房自有率、流出地资产、流出地收入、流入地收入、流入地支出
流入地特征	人口因素	制度文化理论住房市场供需理论效用经济学理论	人口规模、人口结构
	经济因素		经济水平、产业结构、公共服务
	房地产市场因素		房价、房租、住房存量、新增住房供给、住房限购政策