地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (9): 2253-2268.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202109015

• 气候变化与地表过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国天山冰川变化脆弱性研究

蔡兴冉1,2(), 李忠勤1(), 张慧1, 徐春海1,3   

  1. 1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,兰州 730000
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心,兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-05 修回日期:2021-04-16 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 李忠勤(1962-), 男, 甘肃兰州人, 研究员, 博导, 主要从事冰冻圈与环境变化研究。E-mail: lizq@lzb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:蔡兴冉(1993-), 女, 山东济宁人, 博士生, 主要从事冰冻圈与可持续发展研究。E-mail: xingrancai@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20020102);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20060201);国家自然科学基金项目(41761134093);国家自然科学基金项目(41471058);国家自然科学基金项目(42001067);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0201);国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心开放基金(20D03)

Vulnerability of glacier change in Chinese Tianshan Mountains

CAI Xingran1,2(), LI Zhongqin1(), ZHANG Hui1, XU Chunhai1,3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. National Cryosphere Desert Data Center, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2020-06-05 Revised:2021-04-16 Published:2021-09-25 Online:2021-11-25
  • Supported by:
    Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20020102);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20060201);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41761134093);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41471058);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001067);The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0201);National Cryosphere Desert Data Center(20D03)

摘要:

冰川是重要的淡水资源,对社会经济发展和生态环境影响显著,而其变化的脆弱性也关乎区域生态服务和经济可持续发展。本文以中国天山为例,基于脆弱性的暴露度、敏感性、适应能力构建涵盖自然地理特征、人口状况、社会经济水平、农业发展和社会服务等因素的冰川变化脆弱性框架,并以此针对性构建评价指标体系,探析天山冰川变化脆弱性的空间特征,采用地理探测器模型探讨自然、社会、经济和人口等因素对冰川变化适应能力的影响及交互作用。结果表明:① 脆弱性等级由西部地区向东部地区呈降低趋势,且水平差异显著。天山东部地区脆弱性最低、中部地区次之、西部地区较高。② 暴露度、敏感性和适应能力在空间上分别存在明显正相关与负相关,表明区域范围内冰川变化具有高暴露、高敏感地区往往适应能力较低,进而导致脆弱性较高;反之,脆弱性较低。③ 天山应对冰川变化能力的空间异质性是自然、社会、经济和人口因素共同作用的结果。其中,第二、三产业产值、城镇人口数、城镇固定资产投资与年末单位从业人员等因素具有主导作用。

关键词: 冰川变化, 脆弱性, 适应能力, 地理探测器, 中国天山

Abstract:

Glacier is a crucial freshwater resource for populations and socio-economies in arid and semiarid regions, and the vulnerability of glacier change is an issue concerning regional ecological services and sustainable socio-economic development. We took Chinese Tianshan Mountains as an example and constructed a basic framework of the vulnerability of glacier change covering factors such as physical geography, population status, socio-economic level, agricultural development and social services based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, and constituted a targeted evaluation index system accordingly. We examined the spatial structure and spatial autocorrelation of the vulnerability on glacier change using ArcGIS and GeoDa softwares. We discussed the influence and interaction of natural conditions, socio-economy, population and other factors on glacier change adaptability using the GeoDetector model. Our results suggest that: (1) The vulnerability level decreased from west to east with significant differences. The eastern part of Chinese Tianshan Mountains has the lowest vulnerability, followed by the central part, and the western part has the highest value. (2) There is a significant positive correlation between exposure and sensitivity and a significant negative correlation between exposure and adaptability, indicating that the areas with high exposure and high sensitivity to glacier changes tend to have low adaptive capacity, which leads to higher vulnerability; on the contrary, the vulnerability is low. (3) The spatial heterogeneity of the ability to cope with glacier change in the Tianshan Mountains is the result of the combined effects of natural, social, economic and demographic factors. Among them, factors such as the production value of secondary and tertiary industries, urban population, urban fixed-asset investment and employees at the end of the year play a leading role.

Key words: glacier change, vulnerability, adaptability, GeoDetector model, Chinese Tianshan Mountains