地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (8): 1976-1996.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202108012
龚胜生1(), 李孜沫2, 谢海超3, 王晓伟4, 张涛1, 石国宁1, 陈发虎3
收稿日期:
2020-06-05
修回日期:
2021-07-08
出版日期:
2021-08-25
发布日期:
2021-10-25
作者简介:
龚胜生(1965-), 男, 湖南涟源人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事历史地理学、健康地理学和可持续发展研究。E-mail: shshgong@mail.ccnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
GONG Shengsheng1(), LI Zimo2, XIE Haichao3, WANG Xiaowei4, ZHANG Tao1, SHI Guoning1, CHEN Fahu3
Received:
2020-06-05
Revised:
2021-07-08
Published:
2021-08-25
Online:
2021-10-25
Supported by:
摘要:
疫灾是人类灾害链网中的顶级灾害。利用历史疫灾史料,建立疫灾时间序列,使用历史断面分析、因子相关分析、时间序列分析等方法,对中国过去2720年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:① 中国疫灾流行的频度和强度有长期上升趋势,温暖期形成疫灾低谷,寒冷期形成疫灾高峰。② 中国疫灾流行总体以夏、秋季为主,但有阶段性差异,15世纪50年代以后,由于疫病种类增多,疫灾频度提高,疫灾的季节性差异逐渐不显著。③ 中国疫灾波动周期主要有620~610 a、320~310 a、230~220 a、170 a、90 a等,它们大都是12 a或11.2 a的倍数,反映了“十二地支”周期的存在和太阳黑子活动对疫灾周期的重大影响。④ 过去近3000年里,中国累积的疫灾广泛度为93.51%,疫灾厚度达16.86层,东南半壁的疫灾比西北半壁的频繁得多、严重得多。⑤ 中国疫灾区域拓展与土地开发同步,疫灾重心变迁受经济重心的牵引,南宋以前由北向南迁移,南宋以后由东向西迁移;外来疫病输入对疫灾分布格局产生重大影响。⑥ 疫灾流行既是自然生态现象,也是社会文化现象,疫灾时空分布变迁反映人地关系变迁,人口稠密区、交通沿线区、都城周边区、自然疫源区、灾害频发区都是疫灾多发区。⑦ 地理环境分异奠定疫灾空间分异,高温、高湿、低海拔地区疫灾易于流行;自然灾害对疫灾具有诱发作用,灾害频繁区也是疫灾频发区,灾害频繁期也是疫灾频繁期;气候变迁影响疫灾波动,寒冷期疫灾多发,温暖期疫灾少发;人口增加带来的土地开发和人地关系紧张,加剧疫灾的流行;疫灾与战争如影随形,战乱频繁期也是疫灾频繁期。
龚胜生, 李孜沫, 谢海超, 王晓伟, 张涛, 石国宁, 陈发虎. 中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(8): 1976-1996.
GONG Shengsheng, LI Zimo, XIE Haichao, WANG Xiaowei, ZHANG Tao, SHI Guoning, CHEN Fahu. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(8): 1976-1996.
表2
中国3000年各世纪的疫灾等级结构表
世纪 | BC7 | BC6 | BC5 | BC4 | BC3 | BC2 | BC1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 小计 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1级疫灾 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 184 |
2级疫灾 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 24 | 58 | 62 | 69 | 36 | 0 | 370 |
3级疫灾 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 87 |
4级疫灾 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 75 |
5级疫灾 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 49 |
6级疫灾 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 54 |
7级疫灾 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 71 |
合计 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 42 | 51 | 43 | 47 | 68 | 97 | 98 | 97 | 100 | 50 | 890 |
表3
中国3000年疫灾流行的主周期
疫灾指数序列 | 全时段(770 BC—AD 1949) | 前时段(770 BC—AD 960) | 后时段(AD 960—AD 1949) |
---|---|---|---|
疫灾年数指数序列Iey | 910 a、620 a、220 a | 320 a、170 a | 610 a、370 a、230 a;310*a、170*a |
疫灾等级时点序列Ley | 612 a | 72 a | 96 a |
疫灾等级指数序列Iel | 1300 a、620 a | 410 a、250 a | 220 a、90 a |
疫灾等级平均序列Ael | 1330 a、960 a、590 a | 960 a、390 a、260 a | 560 a、90 a、230 a |
表4
中国历史时期各时间断面的疫灾空间分异
区域范围 | 政区县数(个) | 项目 | 汉唐时期 | 宋元时期 | 明代时期 | 清代时期 | 中华民国时期 | 历史时期 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
全国版图 | 2435 | Nec (个) | 1207 | 1499 | 953 | 1754 | 2201 | 2277 |
∑Nec (县次) | 5116 | 4903 | 3019 | 10480 | 17546 | 41064 | ||
Wec (%) | 49.57 | 61.56 | 39.14 | 72.03 | 90.39 | 93.51 | ||
Te (层) | 2.10 | 2.01 | 1.24 | 4.30 | 7.21 | 16.86 | ||
东南半壁 | 1927 | Nec (个) | 1171 | 1495 | 937 | 1558 | 1854 | 1911 |
∑Nec (县次) | 5079 | 4898 | 2994 | 9711 | 15148 | 37830 | ||
Wec (%) | 60.77 | 77.58 | 48.62 | 80.85 | 96.21 | 99.17 | ||
Te (层) | 2.64 | 2.54 | 1.55 | 5.04 | 7.86 | 19.63 | ||
西北半壁 | 508 | Nec (个) | 36 | 4 | 16 | 196 | 347 | 366 |
∑Nec (县次) | 37 | 5 | 25 | 769 | 2398 | 3234 | ||
Wec (%) | 7.09 | 0.79 | 3.15 | 38.58 | 68.31 | 72.05 | ||
Te (层) | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 1.51 | 4.72 | 6.37 |
表5
中国3000年疫灾与地理环境、自然灾害、气候变迁的相关系数
分析阶段 | 历年数(a) | 站点数(个) | 时空关系 | 年均气温/ 气温指数 | 年均降水/ 干湿指数 | 平均 海拔 | 旱灾 | 水灾 | 蝗灾 | 地震 | 饥荒 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
汉唐时期 200 BC—AD 959 | 1160 | 63 | 空间站点相关 | 0.55*** | 0.48*** | -0.37** | 0.82*** | 0.65*** | 0.61*** | 0.64*** | 0.64*** |
时间序列相关 | -0.37*** | -0.14 | - | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.24*** | 0.18** | |||
宋元时期 960—1396年 | 410 | 454 | 空间站点相关 | 0.29*** | 0.29*** | -0.16*** | 0.16*** | 0.19*** | -0.12** | 0.22*** | 0.21*** |
时间序列相关 | -0.28* | -0.32** | - | 0.18* | 0.41*** | 0.23 | 0.44*** | 0.33** | |||
明代时期 1360—1649年 | 290 | 238 | 空间站点相关 | 0.16** | 0.07 | -0.44*** | 0.66*** | 0.68*** | 0.56*** | 0.39*** | - |
时间序列相关 | -0.61*** | -0.35* | - | 0.86*** | 0.74*** | 0.68*** | 0.64*** | - | |||
清代时期 1640—1909年 | 270 | 638 | 空间站点相关 | 0.05 | 0.09 | -0.40*** | 0.54*** | 0.52*** | 0.43*** | 0.40*** | 0.51*** |
时间序列相关 | -0.09 | -0.19 | - | 0.18 | 0.40** | 0.39** | 0.34* | 0.35** |
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