中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202108012

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (8): 1976-1996.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202108012

中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素

龚胜生¹(), 李孜沫², 谢海超³, 王晓伟⁴, 张涛¹, 石国宁¹, 陈发虎³

1.华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院可持续发展研究中心,武汉 430079
2.南昌师范学院旅游与经济管理学院,南昌 330032
3.中国科学院青藏高原研究所古生态与人类适应团队青藏高原地球系统与资源环境国家重点实验室,北京100101
4.山东女子学院旅游学院,济南 250100

收稿日期:2020-06-05 修回日期:2021-07-08 出版日期:2021-08-25 发布日期:2021-10-25
作者简介:龚胜生(1965-), 男, 湖南涟源人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事历史地理学、健康地理学和可持续发展研究。E-mail: shshgong@mail.ccnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41171408);国家社会科学基金项目(12&ZD145)

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China

GONG Shengsheng¹(), LI Zimo², XIE Haichao³, WANG Xiaowei⁴, ZHANG Tao¹, SHI Guoning¹, CHEN Fahu³

1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Research Institute of Sustainable Development, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
2. School of Tourism and Economic Management, Nanchang Normal University, Nanchang 330032, China
3. Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4. Tourism School, Shandong Woman's University, Jinan 250300, China

Received:2020-06-05 Revised:2021-07-08 Published:2021-08-25 Online:2021-10-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41171408);National Social Science Foundation of China(12&ZD145)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

疫灾是人类灾害链网中的顶级灾害。利用历史疫灾史料,建立疫灾时间序列,使用历史断面分析、因子相关分析、时间序列分析等方法,对中国过去2720年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明：① 中国疫灾流行的频度和强度有长期上升趋势,温暖期形成疫灾低谷,寒冷期形成疫灾高峰。② 中国疫灾流行总体以夏、秋季为主,但有阶段性差异,15世纪50年代以后,由于疫病种类增多,疫灾频度提高,疫灾的季节性差异逐渐不显著。③ 中国疫灾波动周期主要有620~610 a、320~310 a、230~220 a、170 a、90 a等,它们大都是12 a或11.2 a的倍数,反映了“十二地支”周期的存在和太阳黑子活动对疫灾周期的重大影响。④ 过去近3000年里,中国累积的疫灾广泛度为93.51%,疫灾厚度达16.86层,东南半壁的疫灾比西北半壁的频繁得多、严重得多。⑤ 中国疫灾区域拓展与土地开发同步,疫灾重心变迁受经济重心的牵引,南宋以前由北向南迁移,南宋以后由东向西迁移;外来疫病输入对疫灾分布格局产生重大影响。⑥ 疫灾流行既是自然生态现象,也是社会文化现象,疫灾时空分布变迁反映人地关系变迁,人口稠密区、交通沿线区、都城周边区、自然疫源区、灾害频发区都是疫灾多发区。⑦ 地理环境分异奠定疫灾空间分异,高温、高湿、低海拔地区疫灾易于流行;自然灾害对疫灾具有诱发作用,灾害频繁区也是疫灾频发区,灾害频繁期也是疫灾频繁期;气候变迁影响疫灾波动,寒冷期疫灾多发,温暖期疫灾少发;人口增加带来的土地开发和人地关系紧张,加剧疫灾的流行;疫灾与战争如影随形,战乱频繁期也是疫灾频繁期。

关键词: 瘟疫灾害, 时空特征, 影响因素, 疫灾周期, 历史时期, 中国

Abstract:

Epidemics are one of the most severe events in the human disaster network. On the basis of establishing the epidemic sequence by using historical epidemic data, and using the methods such as historical section analysis, factor correlation analysis, and time sequence analysis, this article examines the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of the epidemic disasters for the past 2720 years (770 BC-AD 1949) in China. The results show that: (1) The frequency and intensity of epidemic disasters in China have a long-term upward trend, with troughs in the warm periods and peaks in the cold periods. (2) The epidemic prevalence in China generally occurred mainly in summer and autumn, but varied with time, so that since the 1450s, the seasonal difference tended to be less significant due to the increase of the kinds and frequency of epidemics. (3) China's epidemic fluctuation cycles are mainly 620-610 a, 320-310 a, 230-220 a, 170 a, 90 a, etc., which confirms the existence of "Twelve Earthly Branches" cycle and the significant impact of sunspot activity on the epidemic cycles. (4) For the past 3000 years, within the China's territory, the Epidemic Widespread is 93.51%, which indicates the percentage of the number of affected counties to the total number of counties, and the Epidemic Thickness is 16.86 layers, which represents the ratio of cumulative affected counties to the total number of administrative counties. The epidemics in the southeast half of China occurred much more frequently and severely than those in the northwest half. (5) The expansion of the epidemic prevalent areas in China is synchronized with the areal land exploration. The change of the epidemic centers of gravity is obviously affected by the spatial changes of the economic centers of gravity. The centers shifted from north to south before the Southern Song Dynasty, and moved from east to west after that. The import of foreign infectious diseases has a great impact on the distribution pattern of epidemics in China. (6) The prevalence of epidemics is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a sociocultural phenomenon. The change in the spatiotemporal distribution of epidemics reflects the change of human-environmental relationship. The densely populated areas, the areas along the traffic line, the surrounding areas of the capital city, the natural foci areas and the disaster-prone areas are all epidemic-prone areas. (7) The geographical environment has a basic impact on the spatial distribution of epidemics, that is, low altitude, warm and humid areas are prone to the prevalence of epidemics. Natural disasters can induce epidemics, so the disaster-prone area is also the epidemic-prone area, and the disaster-prone period is also the epidemic-prone period. Climate change has impacts on epidemic fluctuations, so epidemics are more frequent in the cold periods than in the warm periods. The land excessive development and the conflict between human and land resulting from population growth intensified the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, epidemics always follow wars, that is, the frequent periods of war are also the frequent periods of epidemic.

Key words: epidemic disaster, spatiotemporal characteristics, impact factor, epidemic cycle, historical period, China

龚胜生, 李孜沫, 谢海超, 王晓伟, 张涛, 石国宁, 陈发虎. 中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(8): 1976-1996.

GONG Shengsheng, LI Zimo, XIE Haichao, WANG Xiaowei, ZHANG Tao, SHI Guoning, CHEN Fahu. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(8): 1976-1996.

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定性描述	微疫	小疫	中疫	大疫	巨疫	特大疫	超大疫
L_e	1级	2级	3级	4级	5级	6级	7级
N_ec(个)	1~3	4~29	30~50	51~190	191~419	420~644	645~833
N_ed(人)	≤ 2000	2000~5000	5000~10000	10000~30000	30000~50000	50000~100000	> 100000

疫灾指数序列	全时段(770 BC—AD 1949)	前时段(770 BC—AD 960)	后时段(AD 960—AD 1949)
疫灾年数指数序列I_ey	910 a、620 a、220 a	320 a、170 a	610 a、370 a、230 a;310^a、170^a
疫灾等级时点序列L_ey	612 a	72 a	96 a
疫灾等级指数序列I_el	1300 a、620 a	410 a、250 a	220 a、90 a
疫灾等级平均序列A_el	1330 a、960 a、590 a	960 a、390 a、260 a	560 a、90 a、230 a

区域范围	政区县数(个)	项目	汉唐时期	宋元时期	明代时期	清代时期	中华民国时期	历史时期
全国版图	2435	N_ec(个)	1207	1499	953	1754	2201	2277
		∑N_ec(县次)	5116	4903	3019	10480	17546	41064
		W_ec(%)	49.57	61.56	39.14	72.03	90.39	93.51
		T_e(层)	2.10	2.01	1.24	4.30	7.21	16.86
东南半壁	1927	N_ec(个)	1171	1495	937	1558	1854	1911
		∑N_ec(县次)	5079	4898	2994	9711	15148	37830
		W_ec(%)	60.77	77.58	48.62	80.85	96.21	99.17
		T_e(层)	2.64	2.54	1.55	5.04	7.86	19.63
西北半壁	508	N_ec(个)	36	4	16	196	347	366
		∑N_ec(县次)	37	5	25	769	2398	3234
		W_ec(%)	7.09	0.79	3.15	38.58	68.31	72.05
		T_e(层)	0.07	0.01	0.05	1.51	4.72	6.37

分析阶段	历年数(a)	站点数(个)	时空关系	年均气温/ 气温指数	年均降水/ 干湿指数	平均海拔	旱灾	水灾	蝗灾	地震	饥荒
汉唐时期 200 BC—AD 959	1160	63	空间站点相关	0.55^***	0.48^***	-0.37^**	0.82^***	0.65^***	0.61^***	0.64^***	0.64^***
汉唐时期 200 BC—AD 959	1160	63	时间序列相关	-0.37^***	-0.14	-	0.09	0.15	0.17	0.24^***	0.18^**
宋元时期 960—1396年	410	454	空间站点相关	0.29^***	0.29^***	-0.16^***	0.16^***	0.19^***	-0.12^**	0.22^***	0.21^***
宋元时期 960—1396年	410	454	时间序列相关	-0.28^*	-0.32^**	-	0.18^*	0.41^***	0.23	0.44^***	0.33^**
明代时期 1360—1649年	290	238	空间站点相关	0.16^**	0.07	-0.44^***	0.66^***	0.68^***	0.56^***	0.39^***	-
明代时期 1360—1649年	290	238	时间序列相关	-0.61^***	-0.35^*	-	0.86^***	0.74^***	0.68^***	0.64^***	-
清代时期 1640—1909年	270	638	空间站点相关	0.05	0.09	-0.40^***	0.54^***	0.52^***	0.43^***	0.40^***	0.51^***
清代时期 1640—1909年	270	638	时间序列相关	-0.09	-0.19	-	0.18	0.40^**	0.39^**	0.34^*	0.35^**

相关分析区间	温度距平	降水量	尘暴指数	人口总数	耕地面积	战争指数
近3000年疫灾指数 (840 BC—AD 1949)	-0.31^***	-0.79^***	0.10^*	0.65^***	0.99^***	0.25^***
近2000年疫灾指数 (0—1949年)	-0.31^***	-0.71^***	0.17^**	0.64^**	0.92^**	0.15^**
近1000年疫灾指数 (960—1949年)	-0.60^***	-0.51^***	0.27^**	0.54^***	0.82^***	-0.21^**

中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China

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世纪	BC7	BC6	BC4	BC3	BC2	BC1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	小计
1级疫灾	1	4	1	1	3	4	2	1	11	8	5	10	3	4	4	10	10	16	14	14	19	12	12	14	1	0	184
2级疫灾	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9	5	6	9	4	8	0	4	2	16	17	18	22	24	58	62	69	36	0	370
3级疫灾	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	1	3	5	4	0	1	0	3	1	6	9	2	0	6	8	15	5	13	0	87
4级疫灾	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	1	3	0	1	2	2	2	3	2	4	1	1	2	7	6	3	7	15	5	75
5级疫灾	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	2	3	2	5	6	1	1	13	8	49
6级疫灾	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	2	0	3	2	0	2	1	0	1	1	5	4	2	0	1	10	13	54
7级疫灾	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	5	4	2	3	5	5	0	12	24	71
合计	1	4	2	2	5	9	12	15	26	22	20	19	18	8	18	16	42	51	43	47	68	97	98	97	100	50	890

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