地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (7): 1792-1809.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202107016

• 土地利用与地表过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

1948—2018年国际河流跨境水冲突的时空演化规律

王涛1,2(), 刘承良1,2,3(), 杜德斌1,2,3   

  1. 1.华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海 200062
    2.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200241
    3.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-11 修回日期:2021-05-14 出版日期:2021-07-25 发布日期:2021-09-25
  • 通讯作者: 刘承良(1979-), 男, 湖北武汉人, 教授, 博导, 中国地理学会会员(S110013672M), 研究方向为世界经济地理。E-mail: clliu@re.ecnu.edu.cn
    刘承良(1979-), 男, 湖北武汉人, 教授, 博导, 中国地理学会会员(S110013672M), 研究方向为世界经济地理。E-mail: clliu@re.ecnu.edu.cn
    刘承良(1979-), 男, 湖北武汉人, 教授, 博导, 中国地理学会会员(S110013672M), 研究方向为世界经济地理。E-mail: clliu@re.ecnu.edu.cn
    刘承良(1979-), 男, 湖北武汉人, 教授, 博导, 中国地理学会会员(S110013672M), 研究方向为世界经济地理。E-mail: clliu@re.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王涛(1990-), 男, 河南新乡人, 博士生, 研究方向为世界地理与地缘关系。E-mail: 52193902013@stu.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100311)

Spatio-temporal dynamics of international freshwater conflict events and relations from 1948 to 2018

WANG Tao1,2(), LIU Chengliang1,2,3(), DU Debin1,2,3   

  1. 1. Center for World Geography and Geo-Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    3. Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2020-12-11 Revised:2021-05-14 Published:2021-07-25 Online:2021-09-25
  • Supported by:
    Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100311)

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摘要：

随着全球气候变化和人类社会经济高速发展,水资源供需矛盾日益突出,国际河流流域跨境水冲突不断加剧,其时空演化规律成为当前跨学科研究的热点和难点。为此,从水冲突“事件—关系”视角,对1948—2018年间全球跨境水冲突的时空演化规律进行系统分析发现：① 1948—2018年全球跨境水冲突规模总体呈非单调波动增长态势,在1987年前后发生显著突变,表现出兼具趋势性、突变性和波动性等多维特征的非单调动力过程;② 全球跨境水冲突事件以围绕水文干预和资源权属争夺的低强度事件为主,大坝等水利工程建设引发的冲突显著增加,南亚、西亚和东非地区成为主导全球跨境水冲突趋势演化的“序参量”;③ 全球跨境水冲突呈现由单中心向多中心格局转变的空间扩散趋势,但“北多南少、东多西少、相对集中”的总体不均衡格局基本锁定,形成以30°N为中心、横跨南亚—中亚—西亚—东非高水资源压力区的水冲突密集带;④ 国家间跨境水冲突关系趋于普遍化、复杂化和网络化,发育多个流域性网络社团,但水冲突关系的“马太效应”和极化分布特征持续显著,产生“路径锁定”效应;水冲突“规模—强度”关系存在一定的空间错配。

关键词: 跨境水冲突, 事件—关系, 时空演化, 国际河流流域, 突变点

Abstract:

With global climate change and the rapid development of human society and economy, the contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent in recent years, and the freshwater conflicts in international river basins have intensified, which has aroused widespread concern in academia. Here we analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamics of global freshwater conflicts (GFCs) over the last 70 years from the "event-relations" perspective, and establish a spatio-temporal database of GFCs from 1948 to 2018 based on data mining method and spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) The evolution of GFCs is a non-monotonic dynamic process with multi-dimensional characteristics of trend, mutation and volatility. The GFCs showed a general trend of fluctuating growth, with an obvious sudden change around 1987. (2) The GFCs are mainly composed of low-intensity conflicts, and the hydrological intervention and contention for resource ownership are the focus of conflicts. The number of conflicts caused by the construction of dams and other water conservancy projects increases significantly. South Asia, West Asia and East Africa are the leading forces driving the evolution of GFCs. (3) The pattern of GFCs has changed from single-center to multi-center, and there is a clear trend of spatial spread. However, the overall distribution pattern with more conflicts in the northern and eastern hemispheres and the pattern with less conflicts in the southern and western hemispheres is relatively stable. Along 30-degree north latitude, a dense zone of freshwater conflicts covering high water stress basins in South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, and East Africa has formed. (4) International freshwater conflict has gradually become more ubiquitous, complicated and networked, and the basin communities of freshwater conflict network have increased significantly. But the "Matthew effect" of freshwater conflicts among countries are obvious, and its polarized distribution pattern is relatively stable. A "path-locking" effect has been formed among the major conflictive countries. There is a certain spatial mismatch between the quantity relationship and intensity relationship of GFCs.

Key words: transboundary freshwater conflicts, event-relations, spatio-temporal dynamics, international river basins, change point