基于冲突—适配视角的土地利用可持续性评价

doi:10.11821/dlxb202107014

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (7): 1763-1777.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202107014

基于冲突—适配视角的土地利用可持续性评价

韩博¹^,²(), 金晓斌¹^,²^,³(), 孙瑞¹^,², 李寒冰¹^,², 梁鑫源¹^,², 周寅康¹^,²^,³

1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
2.自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京 210023
3.江苏省土地开发整理技术工程中心,南京 210023

收稿日期:2020-07-03 修回日期:2021-04-19 出版日期:2021-07-25 发布日期:2021-09-25
通讯作者: 金晓斌(1974-), 男, 甘肃兰州人, 教授, 博士, 博士生导师, 主要从事土地资源管理研究。E-mail: jinxb@nju.edu.cn
作者简介:韩博(1995-), 男, 河南新乡人, 博士生, 主要从事土地利用与国土整治研究。E-mail: mg1727028@smail.nju.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41971234);自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室开放基金项目(2019CZEPK02)

Land use sustainability evaluation based on conflict-adaptation perspective

HAN Bo¹^,²(), JIN Xiaobin¹^,²^,³(), SUN Rui¹^,², LI Hanbing¹^,², LIANG Xinyuan¹^,², ZHOU Yinkang¹^,²^,³

1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
3. Jiangsu Land Development and Consolidation Technology Engineering Center, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2020-07-03 Revised:2021-04-19 Published:2021-07-25 Online:2021-09-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971234);Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources(2019CZEPK02)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用可持续性评价是土地系统科学与可持续发展交叉学科研究中一个重要内容,对识别区域土地利用与管理问题,制定可持续土地管理决策具有重要意义。本文从土地利用可持续内涵解析出发,提出了一种基于土地系统冲突与适配视角、适用于不同区域与时段的土地利用可持续评价框架,并以2000—2015年长三角地区为例进行实证分析。结果显示：① 基于土地系统外部发展施压及土地系统内部支撑角度,可以构建由“资源子系统冲突”“功能子系统冲突”“承载子系统冲突”“资源—功能适配性”“功能—承载适配性”组成的土地系统结构。并基于静力学平衡方程,通过计算结构支撑性与平衡性得到土地利用可持续性;② 长三角地区各项土地冲突适配指标中,土地系统功能冲突改善程度最高,但土地功能与承载适配程度最低。各项冲突适配指标具有显著的城乡、纬度、海陆空间分异特征;③ 长三角地区包含17种土地系统构型,呈现最稳定与最不稳定构型两极分布多、中间构型数量少的特征。长三角地区土地利用可持续性结果范围是0.20~1.58,其中浙江>安徽>长三角地区均值>江苏>上海,浙江诸暨市、安吉县等实施绿色发展战略地区显著高于江苏连云港市、如东县等实施传统经济主导型发展战略地区。本文可以为分析区域土地系统可持续性、设置土地可持续发展规划目标、探索土地系统转型方向提供思路与方法借鉴。

关键词: 土地利用可持续性, 评价框架, 土地系统, 长三角

Abstract:

Land use sustainability evaluation is vital in the cross-disciplinary study of land system science and sustainable development, which is of great significance to the identification of regional land-use problems and the decision making in sustainable land management. With the connotation analysis of land use sustainability (LUS), this study proposes a new framework for LUS evaluation based on the perspective of land system conflict and adaptation, which is suitable for different regions and periods. Taking the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2000 to 2015 as an example, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) Based on the external development pressure and the internal support of land system, the "M"-shaped land system structure consisting of "resource subsystem conflict", "function subsystem conflict", "capacity subsystem conflict", "resource-function adaptation" and "function-capacity adaptation" can be constructed. Further, land use sustainability is obtained by calculating the structural support and balance based on the static balance equation. (2) Among the land conflict-adaptation indicators in the study region, the improvement degree of FC is the highest and the degree of F-C is the lowest. All indicators have significant spatial differentiation characteristics of urban-rural areas, latitude, and land-sea. (3) The YRD region contains 17 types of land system configuration, showing the characteristics of the stable and unstable polarization and the small number of intermediate structures. The LUS results in the YRD region range from 0.20 to 1.58, among which the LUS of Zhejiang > Anhui > average of the whole region > Jiangsu > Shanghai. The LUS in areas implementing green development strategies like Zhuji City and Anji County in Zhejiang Province is significantly higher than that in areas implementing traditional economy-led development strategies such as Lianyungang City and Rudong County in Jiangsu Province. This study can provide a reference for analyzing the sustainability of the regional land system, setting the land sustainable development planning goal, and exploring the direction of land system transformation.

Key words: land use sustainability, evaluation framework, land system, Yangtze River Delta

韩博, 金晓斌, 孙瑞, 李寒冰, 梁鑫源, 周寅康. 基于冲突—适配视角的土地利用可持续性评价[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(7): 1763-1777.

HAN Bo, JIN Xiaobin, SUN Rui, LI Hanbing, LIANG Xinyuan, ZHOU Yinkang. Land use sustainability evaluation based on conflict-adaptation perspective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(7): 1763-1777.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

土地冲突与适配评价指标体系

指标类型	指标层	计算方法说明	指标解释
资源冲突变化(RC)	耕地细碎化程度变化(x₁)	使用景观聚集度指数(AI)反映耕地细碎化程度^[45]。	耕地细碎化程度变化主要受建设用地扩展影响,是建设用地与农用地冲突的主要体现。
资源冲突变化(RC)	生态用地细碎化程度变化(x₂)	使用景观蔓延度指数(CONTAG)反映生态用地细碎化程度^[46]。	反映生态用地的空间连通性。土地开发、土地开垦等活动会导致生态空间连通性下降。
功能冲突变化(FC)	生境质量变化(x₃)	使用InVEST模型中生境质量模块进行计算^[47]。	功能冲突主要表现在经济活动、粮食生产等人类主导土地功能与土地对其他生物、资源功能供给的矛盾。InVEST模型生境质量通过量化人类对栖息地等的生态压力,反映土地利用生产、生活活动对生态活动的扰动。
承载冲突变化(CC)	承载冲突指数变化(x₄)	承载冲突指数= $GD P k × (100 - P M 2.5 k) Po p k$	综合反映人口增长、经济增长、环境恶化之间冲突关系。经济水平越高、环境质量越好、人口越少承载冲突指数越小,表明冲突越小。k为评价单元个数。
资源—功能适配性(R-F)	资源—功能适配指数(x₅)	$x 5 = ∑ 1 i ω i exp f ik . t n ∑ 1 k f ik . t n - f ik . t n - 1 ∑ 1 k f ik . t n - 1 exp r ik . t n ∑ 1 k r ik . t n - r ik . t n - 1 ∑ 1 j r ik . t n - 1$	资源—功能适配指数是资源子系统各要素与对应功能的适配性加权求和。f和r分别为土地功能值和土地要素面积值,i为资源与功能要素适配类型数, $ω i$ 为各类型权重,根据图2,本文 $ω i$ =6。
功能—承载适配性(F-C)	功能—承载适配指数(x₆)	$x 6 = ∑ 1 j η j exp c jk . 2015 ∑ 1 k c jk . 2015 - c jk . 2000 ∑ 1 k c jk . 2000 exp f jk . 2015 ∑ 1 k f jk . 2015 - f jk . 2000 ∑ 1 k f jk . 2000 - 1$	功能—承载适配指数是功能子系统各要素与对应承载的适配性加权求和。c为承载要素值,j为功能与承载要素适配类型数, $η j$ 为各类型权重。根据图2,本文 $η j$ =5。

表1

表2

土地系统构型分类及可持续性计算公式

构型编号	土地可持续性计算方法	构型涵义
A1	$LUS = [F out - (F R - F + F F - C + F R + F F + F C)] - 1 - ∂ × lg (F R + 0.5 F R - F) - (F C + 0.5 F F - C)$	总体结构适应发展需求能力强,系统内部发生偏转可能性小; $∂$ =1。
B1& B2	$LUS = [F out - (F R - F + F F - C + F R C + F F)] - 1 - ∂ × lg (F R C + 0.5 F (R - F) (F - C)) - 0.5 F (F - C) (R - F)$	子系统间适配性较高,但存在土地冲突短板; $∂$ =0.8。
B3	$LUS = [F out - (F R - F + F F - C + F R + F C)] - 1 - ∂ × lg (F R + 0.5 F R - F) - (F C + 0.5 F F - C)$	子系统间适配性较高,功能冲突更严重,但结构总体比较稳定; $∂$ =0.8。
C1& C2	$LUS = [F out - (F R - F + F F - C + F R)] - 1 - ∂ × lg (F R C + 0.5 F (R - F) (F - C)) - 0.5 F (F - C) (R - F)$	子系统间适配性较高,仅有1个子系统冲突得到改善,系统偏转可能性大; $∂$ =0.6。
C3	$LUS = [F out - (F R - F + F F - C + F F)] - 1 - ∂ × lg 0.5 F R - F - 0.5 F F - C$	子系统间适配性较高,功能冲突得到改善,系统偏转可能性小; $∂$ =0.6。
D1	$LUS = [F out - (F R - F + F F - C)] - 1 - ∂ × lg 0.5 F R - F - 0.5 F F - C$	子系统间适配性较高,但子系统冲突较大,系统偏转受适配性影响; $∂$ =0.3。
E1& E2	$LUS = [F out - (F (R - F) (F - C) + F R C + F F)] - 1 - ∂ × lg 0.5 F R C - 0.5 F F$	一类子系统适配性较差,导致对于支撑点的冲突改善不再具有支撑性,其他类型冲突改善情况较好,系统偏转程度较小; $∂$ =0.2。
F1& F2 & F3 & F4	$LUS = [F out - (F (R - F) (F - C) + F R / C / F)] - 1 - ∂ × lg 0.25 F R / C / F - 0.25 F (R - F) (F - C)$	一类子系统适配性较差,另一类子系统适配性对应的两种冲突,仅有一种得到改善,系统偏转程度较大; $∂$ =0.1。
G1&G2	$LUS = [F out - F (R - F) (F - C)] - 1$	一类子系统适配性较差,另一类子系统适配性对应的两种冲突都未得到改善。系统无偏转。
H1	$LUS = F out - 1$	两类子系统适配性较差,忽略冲突改善的支撑性。系统无偏转。

表2

图3

表3

图4

表4

图5

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数据类型	数据来源	数据精度	数据说明
土地利用数据	中国科学院资源环境数据共享中心	1 km	将耕地归为农用地,将林地、草地、水域、未利用地归为生态用地
社会经济空间化数据	中国科学院资源环境数据共享中心	1 km	包括GDP和人口空间化插值数据
道路矢量数据	https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/	1∶100万	无
夜间灯光遥感数据	http://www.noaa.gov/	1 km	选用Version 4 DMSP-OLS Nighttime Lights Time Series,受数据限制选用2000年、2013年两期数据
净初级生产力NPP	http://www.noaa.gov/	1 km	MOD17A3产品,8天一期,选取6、7、8月NPP数据取均值
植被指数NDVI	地理空间数据云	500 m	MYDND1M中国500M NDVI月合成产品
PM_2.5空间数据	https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/	1 km	PM_2.5浓度,每立方米空气中可入肺颗粒物的含量,单位μg/m³

区域	RC平均值	FC平均值	CC平均值	R-F平均值	F-C平均值	LUS平均值
长三角全域	0.682	0.796	0.462	0.669	0.563	0.595
长三角中心区	0.665	0.764	0.482	0.645	0.560	0.590
生态绿色一体化发展示范区	0.489	0.633	0.424	0.527	0.559	0.328
上海市	0.617	0.714	0.478	0.526	0.513	0.416
江苏省	0.677	0.792	0.437	0.697	0.573	0.583
浙江省	0.667	0.754	0.559	0.623	0.558	0.617
安徽省	0.709	0.849	0.400	0.705	0.567	0.615

基于冲突—适配视角的土地利用可持续性评价

Land use sustainability evaluation based on conflict-adaptation perspective

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