地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (6): 1334-1349.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202106002

• 人口与城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国五大城市群人口流入的空间模式及变动趋势

曹广忠1,2(), 陈思创1, 刘涛1,2()   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
    2. 北京大学未来城市研究中心,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-10 修回日期:2021-02-03 出版日期:2021-06-25 发布日期:2021-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 刘涛(1987-), 男, 安徽宿州人, 博士, 研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110010320M), 研究方向为城镇化与人口迁移。E-mail: liutao@pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:曹广忠(1969-), 男, 山东莘县人, 博士, 教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110001570M), 研究方向为城市地理与城乡发展、城市与区域规划。E-mail: caogzh@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41801146);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJC840022);英国研究与创新基金会全球挑战研究基金项目(ES/P011055/1)

Changing spatial patterns of internal migration to five major urban agglomerations in China

CAO Guangzhong1,2(), CHEN Sichuang1, LIU Tao1,2()   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Center for Urban Future Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2020-06-10 Revised:2021-02-03 Published:2021-06-25 Online:2021-08-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801146);Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(18YJC840022);UKRI's Global Challenge Research Fund(ES/P011055/1)

摘要:

城市群在中国城镇化格局中占有重要地位,也是快速城市化时期的主要人口流入地。本文关注京津冀、长三角、珠三角、长江中游和成渝五大城市群,利用人口普查和流动人口动态监测调查数据,从流入人口分布格局、流动范围和来源地等多维度剖析城市群人口流入的空间模式,并从居留和落户意愿空间差异的视角探讨空间模式的发展趋势及其对流入地和流出地的影响。研究发现,各城市群流入人口向中心城市持续集中,等级和空间分布格局总体稳定;流动范围有所扩大,省内流动增速普遍高于省际;沿海城市群人口吸引范围大但仍服从距离衰减律,不同来源地流入人口的城市群偏好存在差异。在流入地,沿海城市群中心城市面临流动人口管理服务的持续挑战,内陆城市群中心城市和一般城市吸引力并存;在流出地,平等开放的高质量公共服务供给是吸引人口回流的重要途径,少数地区的人口流失可能成为较长期的现象。

关键词: 人口流入, 空间模式, 迁移距离, 居留落户, 城市群

Abstract:

Internal migration in China has presented a series of new characteristics recently. The secondary migration and spatial redistribution of existing migrants become increasingly important in determining the future patterns of urbanization. Urban agglomerations (UAs) have long been the major destination of China's internal migration. They are also appointed as the main form of future urbanization in the recently released national planning of new-type urbanization. Five major UAs were selected as a case study, including three coastal ones, namely the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH), and two inland ones, namely the Middle Yangtze River (MYR) and the Chengdu-Chongqing (CC) region. Based on data of the latest population census and the dynamic monitoring survey of floating population in the five major UAs, this paper first examined the spatial patterns of in-migrants from multiple dimensions of destination, origin, and distance of migration. The trends and urbanization effects of migration on the destination and origin were then assessed by comparing the settlement and hukou transfer intentions of migrants with different origins and destinations. The results showed the coexistence of common and distinct features in these mega regions. Although the continuous attractiveness of central cities for migrants was observed in all regions, peripheral cities in the YRD and PRD have become increasingly attractive as well, leading to a moderately dispersing trend in these two pioneering coastal UAs. Moreover, the concentration level and spatial distribution of migrants among cities were generally stable in the YRD and PRD but continuously adjusting in the BTH and two inland UAs. The fastest growth was found in inter-county migration within province and the slowest in intra-county migration. The coastal UAs were strongly preferred by inter-provincial migrants, while the inland ones could only attract migrants from the same or surrounding provinces. Despite this, significant distance attenuation was found in all of them. In terms of the origins of migrants, those from central provinces had flowed mainly to the YRD and PRD, whereas those from the northeast showed a high preference for the BTH region. We can anticipate the future patterns of migration and urbanization from the settlement intentions of migrants from and to different cities. From the destination view, the advantage in public services made central cities considerably more attractive than other cities. Hence, they are expected to be continuously faced with severe contradiction between supply and demand of public services. In the inland UAs, however, central cities and ordinary ones are able to share the pressure of public service provision. From the original view, the high-quality and equally accessible public services are important for inland regions to attract return migrants, and providing high possibility for the return-migration-induced urbanization. However, the population loss in the northeast may become a long-term trend that can hardly be reversed in the visible future.

Key words: internal migration, spatial pattern, migration distance, permanent settlement, urban agglomeration