地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1257-1273.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105016

• 资源利用与环境演变 • 上一篇    下一篇

咸海流域社会经济用水分析与预测

刘爽1,2(), 白洁1, 罗格平1,2(), 吕娜娜3, 吴淼4   

  1. 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830000
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
    4.中国科学院新疆分院文献信息中心,乌鲁木齐 830000
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-05 修回日期:2020-11-16 出版日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-07-25
  • 通讯作者: 罗格平(1968-), 男, 湖南湘乡人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事土地变化及其生态效应、遥感与GIS应用研究。E-mail: luogp@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:刘爽(1994-), 女, 江苏沭阳人, 硕士生, 主要从事社会经济用水分析、遥感与GIS应用研究。E-mail: liushuang174@mails.ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20060302);国家自然科学基金项目(U1803243)

Analysis and prediction of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea Basin

LIU Shuang1,2(), BAI Jie1, LUO Geping1,2(), LYU Nana3, WU Miao4   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    4. Document and Information Center of Xinjiang Branch of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:2019-06-05 Revised:2020-11-16 Published:2021-05-25 Online:2021-07-25
  • Supported by:
    Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20060302);National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1803243)

摘要:

1960年以来咸海流域大规模的水土资源开发使得社会经济用水激增,致使至1990年咸海面积萎缩50%,引发咸海生态危机。目前对引起咸海生态危机的社会经济用水的时空变化特征和趋势尚不清楚。本文在整合了多途径获取的1960—2016年咸海流域国家/州级水资源和社会经济数据的基础上,利用系统动力学模型,仿真模拟和分析了1960—2016年咸海流域社会经济和用水时空变化特征,并多情景预测2016—2030年咸海流域社会经济用水。1960—2016年咸海流域人口增幅267%,GDP增幅1100%,社会经济用水量从410亿m3增长至910亿m3。咸海流域的工农业用水效益在1991年苏联解体后明显增加,但仍处于较低水平。对未来的情景预测表明:若延续现有社会经济用水效率、农作物种植面积持续扩张(S1),至2030年咸海流域社会经济用水量达到962亿m3;而在滴灌普及率达到70%、种植面积不变的情景下(S10),社会经济用水量降至681亿m3,可有效缓解咸海危机。

关键词: 咸海流域, 水资源, 社会经济用水, 系统动力学

Abstract:

Since 1960, water and land resource development in the Aral Sea Basin has led to a surge in socio-economic water consumption and resulted in about 50% shrinkage of the Aral Sea until 1990, which is also known as the Aral Sea Crisis. However, the spatial and temporal changes in socio-economic water consumption are still unclear. Based on the multi-source acquisition of Aral Sea Basin national/state water resource and socio-economic data during 1960-2016, this paper used the system dynamics model to simulate and analyze the characteristics of the socio-economic and water use changes in the Aral Sea Basin and forecasted the socio-economic water use in 2016-2030 under multi-scenarios. The population and GDP in the Aral Sea Basin increased rapidly, by 267% and 1100% respectively, during the study period. The socio-economic water consumption increased from 41 km3 in 1960 to 91 km3 in 2016. The socio-economic water consumption of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased rapidly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and decreased afterwards. The socio-economic water consumption in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan continued to grow in the past 60 years. The benefits of industrial and agricultural water use in the basin increased significantly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but remained at a relatively low level. The future forecasts show that if the existing socio-economic water use efficiency and cropland continue to increase (S1), the socio-economic water consumption in the Aral Sea Basin will reach 96.2 km3 by 2030. Under the S10 scenario that the drip irrigation penetration rate reaches 70% and the cropland remains unchanged, the socio-economic water consumption will drop to 68.1 km 3, which can effectively alleviate the crisis in the study area.

Key words: Aral Sea Basin, water resources, socio-economic water, system dynamics