基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105005

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1105-1121.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105005

基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究

王武林¹^,²(), 王成金¹^,³()

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101
2.福州大学环境与资源学院,福州 350108
3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-06-23 修回日期:2021-03-23 出版日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-07-25
通讯作者: 王成金(1975-), 男, 山东沂水人, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事经济地理学与区域发展研究。E-mail: cjwang@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:王武林(1982-), 男, 湖南邵阳人, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 主要从事区域发展与交通地理研究。E-mail: wangwulin421@163.com
基金资助:
中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M641458);中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4);国家自然科学基金项目(42071151);国家自然科学基金项目(41701118)

Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route

WANG Wulin¹^,²(), WANG Chengjin¹^,³()

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Environment and Resources, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-06-23 Revised:2021-03-23 Published:2021-05-25 Online:2021-07-25
Supported by:
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2018M641458);Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071151);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701118)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

东北航线因其战略地位重要而日益受到世界各国的关注。本文计算出中欧港口航运经济成本及中欧国家贸易互补指数,基于东北航线构建随机前沿贸易引力模型,探究中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易的影响因素,结果发现：① 以12000 TEU运输量为对比,中欧港口基于东北航线的航运经济成本约为传统航线的1.58~2.80倍。② 2000—2018年间,基于中国出口的中欧贸易互补指数CE_ij>1的次数占52.63%,CE_ij较高的对应国家包括冰岛、丹麦、挪威、法国、瑞典和英国等国家;基于中国进口的中欧贸易互补指数CI_ij＜1的比例高达94.74%,呈下降趋势,中国进口与欧洲18国出口的互补性较差。③ 在中国向欧洲18国出口的贸易规模方面,贸易伙伴国经济规模比中国经济规模的影响更大,东北航线航运经济成本与贸易规模显著负相关;在中国向欧洲18国进口的贸易规模方面,贸易伙伴国经济规模比中国经济规模的影响更大,东北航线航运经济成本与贸易规模正相关关系的置信度较低。④ 以东北航线为中欧贸易通道,中国向欧洲18国的出口贸易效率和进口贸易效率分别呈现出不同程度的下降和上升趋势,中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易效率的提升空间较大。本文强化了东北航线与中欧航运及贸易之间关系的研究,为中国参与东北航线建设、北极资源的开发利用以及加强中欧贸易等方面提供参考。

关键词: 航运经济成本, 随机前沿贸易引力模型, 贸易效率, 东北航线

Abstract:

The Northern Sea Route has been increasingly attracting the attention from countries all over the world due to its important strategic status. By calculating the economic costs of shipping among China-EU ports through the Northern Sea Route and China-EU trade complementarity index, this study builds a trade gravity model in stochastic frontier based on the Northern Sea Route, and explores the influencing factors of China’s import from and export trade to 18 European countries, which shows the following: (1) Taking the traffic volume of 12000 TEU for comparison, the economic costs of shipping along the Northern Sea Route are 1.58-2.80 times those based on the traditional passage among China-EU ports. (2) In 2000-2018, the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s export (CE_ij) greater than 1 accounted for 52.63%, and countries with higher CE_ij included Iceland, Denmark, Norway, France, Sweden and the United Kingdom, while the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s import (CI_ij) less than 1 accounted for 94.74%, with a declining trend. So, China’s import and export with 18 European countries were less complementary. (3) In terms of trade scale of China’s export to 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the economic costs of shipping are significantly negatively correlated with the trade scale based on the Northern Sea Route; in terms of trade scale of China’s import from 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the positive correlation relationship between the economic costs of shipping and the trade scale has lower confidence based on the Northern Sea Route. (4) If the Northern Sea Route was taken for the China-EU trade, the trade efficiencies of China’s export to 18 European countries and import from them declined and rose to varying degrees, respectively, which means that the trade efficiency of China’s import and export had large room for improvement. This study can strengthen the research foundation of relationship between China-EU shipping and trade based on the Northern Sea Route, and provide references for China on participating in the construction of the Northern Sea Route, exploiting and utilizing Arctic resources, and reinforcing the trade between China and Europe.

Key words: economic cost of shipping, trade gravity model in stochastic frontier, trade efficiency, Northern Sea Route

王武林, 王成金. 基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1105-1121.

WANG Wulin, WANG Chengjin. Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1105-1121.

图/表 8

图1

表1

表2

表3

12000 TEU运输量下东北航线较传统航线的航运经济成本增量(万美元)

港口	大连	秦皇岛	天津	青岛	连云港	上海	宁波	厦门	深圳	广州	防城港	海口	平均
摩尔曼斯克	394.21	400.88	402.77	397.15	400.65	404.66	409.13	456.25	491.11	492.18	523.87	513.37	440.52
圣彼得堡	620.63	630.71	632.60	626.98	630.48	634.49	638.96	686.08	720.94	722.01	753.70	743.20	670.07
奥斯陆	598.18	604.85	606.74	601.11	604.62	608.63	613.10	660.22	695.08	696.15	727.84	717.34	644.49
哥德堡	598.69	602.51	604.40	598.78	602.28	606.30	610.76	657.88	692.74	693.82	725.50	715.00	642.39
赫尔辛基	636.81	642.71	644.60	638.98	642.48	646.49	650.96	698.08	732.94	734.01	765.70	755.20	682.41
塔林	635.82	642.35	644.24	638.61	642.12	646.13	650.60	697.72	732.58	733.65	765.34	754.84	682.00
里加	625.85	632.37	634.27	628.64	632.15	636.16	640.63	687.75	722.60	723.68	755.37	744.87	672.03
克莱佩达	618.96	625.49	627.38	621.75	625.26	629.27	633.74	680.86	715.72	716.79	748.48	737.98	665.14
格但斯克	619.68	626.35	628.24	622.62	626.12	630.13	634.60	681.72	716.58	717.65	749.34	738.84	665.99
汉堡	612.51	619.18	621.07	615.44	618.95	622.96	627.43	674.55	709.41	710.48	742.17	731.67	658.82
哥本哈根	607.56	614.08	615.97	610.35	613.85	617.87	622.33	669.45	704.31	705.38	737.07	726.57	653.73
鹿特丹	625.16	631.83	633.72	628.09	631.60	635.61	640.08	687.20	722.06	723.13	754.82	744.32	671.47
安特卫普	631.62	638.29	640.18	634.56	638.06	642.07	646.54	693.66	728.52	729.59	761.28	750.78	677.93
勒阿弗尔	648.21	654.88	656.77	651.15	654.65	658.66	663.13	710.25	745.11	746.18	777.87	767.37	694.52
毕尔巴鄂	701.53	708.05	709.94	704.32	707.82	711.84	716.30	763.42	798.28	799.36	831.05	820.54	747.70
里斯本	745.64	752.31	754.21	748.58	752.09	756.10	760.56	807.68	842.54	843.62	875.31	864.80	791.95
南安普顿	650.13	656.66	658.55	652.93	656.43	660.44	664.91	712.03	746.89	747.96	779.65	769.15	696.31
都柏林	641.15	647.67	649.57	643.94	647.45	651.46	655.93	703.05	737.90	738.98	770.67	760.17	687.33
雷克雅未克	605.66	612.33	614.23	608.60	612.11	616.12	620.59	667.71	702.56	703.64	735.33	724.83	651.98
平均	622.00	628.60	630.50	624.87	628.38	632.39	636.86	683.98	718.83	719.91	751.60	741.10	——

表3

图2

表4

表5

基于东北航线的面板随机前沿贸易引力模型回归结果

因变量lnEX_ijt	系数	因变量lnIM_ijt	系数
常数项	-7.15^***	常数项	-63.38^*
lnGDP_it	0.62^*	lnGDP_it	0.28^***
lnGDP_jt	0.98^***	lnGDP_jt	0.87^***
lnEC_ij	-1.90^*	lnEC_ij	7.72
lnCE_ij	-0.06	lnCI_ij	0.03
B_ij	0.31	B_ij	0.39^*
FTA_ij	-0.16	FTA_ij	-0.48^**
μ	0.00	μ	0.00
η	-0.01	η	0.04
γ	0.91	γ	0.95
$σ μ 2$	0.69	$σ μ 2$	1.61
$σ υ 2$	0.07	$σ υ 2$	0.08
对数似然值	-110.50	对数似然值	-95.93
LR	399.37	LR	467.69

表5

图3

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航线	YS	SS	HN或 HS	BN	DN_ij或 DS_ij	RN_ij或 RS_ij	ON_ij或 OS_ij	PN_ij或 PS_ij	MN_ij或 MS_ij	XN_ij或 XS_ij	WN_ij或 WS_ij	IN_ij或 IS_ij
东北航线	-	-	72	180	9.6	7.2	0.0441	1.44	0.72	0.1728	0.09	0.1749
传统航线	50	7	28	-	1.11	4	0.0259	0.463	0.2315	0.0756	0.0556	0.1944

变量类型	变量	观测数量	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差
因变量	lnEX_ij_t	342	16.68	25.08	22.02	1.89
因变量	lnIM_ijt	342	14.84	25.39	21.19	2.30
影响因素	lnGDP_it	342	27.82	30.24	29.15	0.82
	lnGDP_jt	342	22.46	29.00	26.38	1.68
	lnEC_ij	342	9.05	9.21	9.12	0.04
	lnCE_ijt	342	-0.32	0.35	0.0028	0.13
	lnCI_ijt	342	-0.82	0.29	-0.2981	0.18

变量	LLC检验统计量	结论
lnEX_ijt	-8.9735	平稳
lnIM_ijt	-7.4359	平稳
lnGDP_it	-6.4064	平稳
lnGDP_jt	-7.8754	平稳
lnCE_ijt	-3.5680	平稳
lnCI_ijt	-4.8176	平稳
lnEX_ijt、lnGDP_it、lnGDP_jt、lnCE_ijt协整检验	T统计量: -4.9656	存在协整关系
lnIMX_ijt、lnGDP_it、lnGDP_jt、lnCI_ijt协整检验	T统计量: -4.6801	存在协整关系

基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究

Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route

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