地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1105-1121.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105005
收稿日期:
2020-06-23
修回日期:
2021-03-23
出版日期:
2021-05-25
发布日期:
2021-07-25
通讯作者:
王成金(1975-), 男, 山东沂水人, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事经济地理学与区域发展研究。E-mail: cjwang@igsnrr.ac.cn作者简介:
王武林(1982-), 男, 湖南邵阳人, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 主要从事区域发展与交通地理研究。E-mail: wangwulin421@163.com
基金资助:
WANG Wulin1,2(), WANG Chengjin1,3(
)
Received:
2020-06-23
Revised:
2021-03-23
Published:
2021-05-25
Online:
2021-07-25
Supported by:
摘要:
东北航线因其战略地位重要而日益受到世界各国的关注。本文计算出中欧港口航运经济成本及中欧国家贸易互补指数,基于东北航线构建随机前沿贸易引力模型,探究中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易的影响因素,结果发现:① 以12000 TEU运输量为对比,中欧港口基于东北航线的航运经济成本约为传统航线的1.58~2.80倍。② 2000—2018年间,基于中国出口的中欧贸易互补指数CEij>1的次数占52.63%,CEij较高的对应国家包括冰岛、丹麦、挪威、法国、瑞典和英国等国家;基于中国进口的中欧贸易互补指数CIij<1的比例高达94.74%,呈下降趋势,中国进口与欧洲18国出口的互补性较差。③ 在中国向欧洲18国出口的贸易规模方面,贸易伙伴国经济规模比中国经济规模的影响更大,东北航线航运经济成本与贸易规模显著负相关;在中国向欧洲18国进口的贸易规模方面,贸易伙伴国经济规模比中国经济规模的影响更大,东北航线航运经济成本与贸易规模正相关关系的置信度较低。④ 以东北航线为中欧贸易通道,中国向欧洲18国的出口贸易效率和进口贸易效率分别呈现出不同程度的下降和上升趋势,中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易效率的提升空间较大。本文强化了东北航线与中欧航运及贸易之间关系的研究,为中国参与东北航线建设、北极资源的开发利用以及加强中欧贸易等方面提供参考。
王武林, 王成金. 基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1105-1121.
WANG Wulin, WANG Chengjin. Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1105-1121.
表3
12000 TEU运输量下东北航线较传统航线的航运经济成本增量(万美元)
港口 | 大连 | 秦皇岛 | 天津 | 青岛 | 连云港 | 上海 | 宁波 | 厦门 | 深圳 | 广州 | 防城港 | 海口 | 平均 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
摩尔曼斯克 | 394.21 | 400.88 | 402.77 | 397.15 | 400.65 | 404.66 | 409.13 | 456.25 | 491.11 | 492.18 | 523.87 | 513.37 | 440.52 |
圣彼得堡 | 620.63 | 630.71 | 632.60 | 626.98 | 630.48 | 634.49 | 638.96 | 686.08 | 720.94 | 722.01 | 753.70 | 743.20 | 670.07 |
奥斯陆 | 598.18 | 604.85 | 606.74 | 601.11 | 604.62 | 608.63 | 613.10 | 660.22 | 695.08 | 696.15 | 727.84 | 717.34 | 644.49 |
哥德堡 | 598.69 | 602.51 | 604.40 | 598.78 | 602.28 | 606.30 | 610.76 | 657.88 | 692.74 | 693.82 | 725.50 | 715.00 | 642.39 |
赫尔辛基 | 636.81 | 642.71 | 644.60 | 638.98 | 642.48 | 646.49 | 650.96 | 698.08 | 732.94 | 734.01 | 765.70 | 755.20 | 682.41 |
塔林 | 635.82 | 642.35 | 644.24 | 638.61 | 642.12 | 646.13 | 650.60 | 697.72 | 732.58 | 733.65 | 765.34 | 754.84 | 682.00 |
里加 | 625.85 | 632.37 | 634.27 | 628.64 | 632.15 | 636.16 | 640.63 | 687.75 | 722.60 | 723.68 | 755.37 | 744.87 | 672.03 |
克莱佩达 | 618.96 | 625.49 | 627.38 | 621.75 | 625.26 | 629.27 | 633.74 | 680.86 | 715.72 | 716.79 | 748.48 | 737.98 | 665.14 |
格但斯克 | 619.68 | 626.35 | 628.24 | 622.62 | 626.12 | 630.13 | 634.60 | 681.72 | 716.58 | 717.65 | 749.34 | 738.84 | 665.99 |
汉堡 | 612.51 | 619.18 | 621.07 | 615.44 | 618.95 | 622.96 | 627.43 | 674.55 | 709.41 | 710.48 | 742.17 | 731.67 | 658.82 |
哥本哈根 | 607.56 | 614.08 | 615.97 | 610.35 | 613.85 | 617.87 | 622.33 | 669.45 | 704.31 | 705.38 | 737.07 | 726.57 | 653.73 |
鹿特丹 | 625.16 | 631.83 | 633.72 | 628.09 | 631.60 | 635.61 | 640.08 | 687.20 | 722.06 | 723.13 | 754.82 | 744.32 | 671.47 |
安特卫普 | 631.62 | 638.29 | 640.18 | 634.56 | 638.06 | 642.07 | 646.54 | 693.66 | 728.52 | 729.59 | 761.28 | 750.78 | 677.93 |
勒阿弗尔 | 648.21 | 654.88 | 656.77 | 651.15 | 654.65 | 658.66 | 663.13 | 710.25 | 745.11 | 746.18 | 777.87 | 767.37 | 694.52 |
毕尔巴鄂 | 701.53 | 708.05 | 709.94 | 704.32 | 707.82 | 711.84 | 716.30 | 763.42 | 798.28 | 799.36 | 831.05 | 820.54 | 747.70 |
里斯本 | 745.64 | 752.31 | 754.21 | 748.58 | 752.09 | 756.10 | 760.56 | 807.68 | 842.54 | 843.62 | 875.31 | 864.80 | 791.95 |
南安普顿 | 650.13 | 656.66 | 658.55 | 652.93 | 656.43 | 660.44 | 664.91 | 712.03 | 746.89 | 747.96 | 779.65 | 769.15 | 696.31 |
都柏林 | 641.15 | 647.67 | 649.57 | 643.94 | 647.45 | 651.46 | 655.93 | 703.05 | 737.90 | 738.98 | 770.67 | 760.17 | 687.33 |
雷克雅未克 | 605.66 | 612.33 | 614.23 | 608.60 | 612.11 | 616.12 | 620.59 | 667.71 | 702.56 | 703.64 | 735.33 | 724.83 | 651.98 |
平均 | 622.00 | 628.60 | 630.50 | 624.87 | 628.38 | 632.39 | 636.86 | 683.98 | 718.83 | 719.91 | 751.60 | 741.10 | —— |
表4
面板数据单位根检验结果
变量 | LLC检验统计量 | P值 | 结论 |
---|---|---|---|
lnEXijt | -8.9735 | 0.000 | 平稳 |
lnIMijt | -7.4359 | 0.000 | 平稳 |
lnGDPit | -6.4064 | 0.000 | 平稳 |
lnGDPjt | -7.8754 | 0.000 | 平稳 |
lnCEijt | -3.5680 | 0.000 | 平稳 |
lnCIijt | -4.8176 | 0.000 | 平稳 |
lnEXijt、lnGDPit、lnGDPjt、lnCEijt协整检验 | T统计量: -4.9656 | 0.000 | 存在协整关系 |
lnIMXijt、lnGDPit、lnGDPjt、lnCIijt协整检验 | T统计量: -4.6801 | 0.000 | 存在协整关系 |
表5
基于东北航线的面板随机前沿贸易引力模型回归结果
因变量lnEXijt | 系数 | 因变量lnIMijt | 系数 |
---|---|---|---|
常数项 | -7.15*** | 常数项 | -63.38* |
lnGDPit | 0.62* | lnGDPit | 0.28*** |
lnGDPjt | 0.98*** | lnGDPjt | 0.87*** |
lnECij | -1.90* | lnECij | 7.72 |
lnCEij | -0.06 | lnCIij | 0.03 |
Bij | 0.31 | Bij | 0.39* |
FTAij | -0.16 | FTAij | -0.48** |
μ | 0.00 | μ | 0.00 |
η | -0.01 | η | 0.04 |
γ | 0.91 | γ | 0.95 |
0.69 | 1.61 | ||
0.07 | 0.08 | ||
对数似然值 | -110.50 | 对数似然值 | -95.93 |
LR | 399.37 | LR | 467.69 |
[1] |
Smith L C, Stephenson S R. New trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury. PNAS, 2013,110(13):E1191-E1195.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1214212110 |
[2] | Bennett M M, Stephenson S R, Yang K, et al. The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts. Marine Policy, 2020: 104178. DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104178. |
[3] |
Lindholt L, Glomsrød S. The Arctic: No big bonanza for the global petroleum industry. Energy Economics, 2012,34(5):1465-1474.
doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.06.020 |
[4] |
Lavissière A, Sohier R, Lavissière M C. Transportation systems in the Arctic: A systematic literature review using textometry. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2020,141:130-146.
doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.09.003 |
[5] | Hassol S. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004. |
[6] |
Schøyen H, Bråthen S. The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: Cases from bulk shipping. Journal of Transport Geography, 2011,19(4):977-983.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.03.003 |
[7] |
Lee S W, Song J M. Economic possibilities of shipping through Northern Sea Route. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 2014,30(3):415-430.
doi: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2014.12.009 |
[8] |
Zeng C, Lu T Y, Lin K C, et al. The competitiveness of Arctic shipping over Suez Canal and China-Europe railway. Transport Policy, 2020,86:34-43.
doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.11.005 |
[9] | Shou Jianmin, Feng Yuan. Potential for container transport through the Arctic Northern Sea Route. Chinese Journal of Polar Research, 2015,27(1):65-73. |
[ 寿建敏, 冯远. 基于航运成本的北极东北航道集装箱运输潜力研究. 极地研究, 2015,27(1):65-73.] | |
[10] |
Ding W, Wang Y, Dai L, et al. Does a carbon tax affect the feasibility of Arctic shipping? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2020,80:102257. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102257.
doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102257 |
[11] | Rahman N A, Saharuddin A, Rasdi R. Effect of the Northern Sea Route opening to the shipping activities at Malacca Straits. International Journal of e-Navigation and Maritime Economy, 2014,1:85-98. |
[12] | Li Zhenfu, You Xue, Wang Wenya, et al. Economic analysis of the container shipping on the Arctic Northern Route. Journal of Jimei University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2015,18(1):34-40. |
[ 李振福, 尤雪, 王文雅, 等. 北极东北航线集装箱运输的经济性分析. 集美大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2015,18(1):34-40.] | |
[13] |
Theocharis D, Pettit S, Rodrigues V, et al. Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies. Journal of Transport Geography, 2018,69:112-128.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2018.04.010 |
[14] | Xu Hua, Yin Zhifang. Cost evaluation of the summertime container shipping on the Arctic Northern Passage. World Regional Studies, 2013,22(3):10-17. |
[ 徐骅, 尹志芳. 北冰洋东北航道夏季集装箱航运经济性研究. 世界地理研究, 2013,22(3):10-17.] | |
[15] | Zhang Aifeng, Song Yanping. Economy study of Arctic route based on the influence of sea ice. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2014,40(2):43-46. |
[ 张爱锋, 宋艳平. 基于海冰影响的北极航线经济性研究. 大连海事大学学报, 2014,40(2):43-46.] | |
[16] | Qian Zuoqin, Xu Li, Yan Xinping, et al. Navigation strategy and economic research of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic. Chinese Journal of Polar Research, 2015,27(2):203-211. |
[ 钱作勤, 徐立, 严新平, 等. 北极东北航道通航策略及经济性研究. 极地研究, 2015,27(2):203-211.] | |
[17] |
Wang D, Ding R, Gong Y, et al. Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route for oil shipping from the economic and environmental perspective and its influence on China’s oil imports. Marine Policy, 2020,118:104006. DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104006.
doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104006 |
[18] | Zhang Xia, Tu Jingfang, Guo Peiqing, et al. The economic estimate of Arctic Sea Routes and its strategic significance for the development of Chinese economy. China Soft Science, 2009(Suppl.2):86-93. |
[ 张侠, 屠景芳, 郭培清, 等. 北极航线的海运经济潜力评估及其对我国经济发展的战略意义. 中国软科学, 2009(Suppl.2):86-93.] | |
[19] |
Liu M J, Kronbak J. The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe. Journal of Transport Geography, 2010,18(3):434-444.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.08.004 |
[20] | Carmel S M. The cold, hard realities of Arctic shipping. US Naval Institute Proceedings Magazine, 2013,139(7):38-41. |
[21] |
Verny J, Grigentin C. Container shipping on the northern sea route. International Journal of Production Economics, 2009,122(1):107-117.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2009.03.018 |
[22] |
Zhang Y R, Meng Q, Ng S H. Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal. Journal of Transport Geography, 2016,57:241-249.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.09.008 |
[23] |
Pierre C, Olivier F. Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2015,78:337-346.
doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.05.020 |
[24] |
Lasserre F, Pelletier S. Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: An analysis of shipowners’ intentions. Journal of Transport Geography, 2011,19(6):1465-1473.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.08.006 |
[25] |
Somanathan S, Flynn P, Szymanski J. The Northwest Passage: A simulation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2009,43(2):127-135.
doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2008.08.001 |
[26] |
Wang N, Yan B, Wu N, et al. Comments on "Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes: Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector". Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2016,94:699-702.
doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.004 |
[27] |
Liu X H, Ma L, Wang J Y, et al. Navigable windows of the Northwest Passage. Polar Science, 2017,13:91-99.
doi: 10.1016/j.polar.2017.02.001 |
[28] |
Lasserre F. Case studies of shipping along Arctic routes: Analysis and profitability perspectives for the container sector. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014,66:144-161.
doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.05.005 |
[29] |
Zhao H, Hu H, Lin Y S. Study on China-EU container shipping network in the context of Northern Sea Route. Journal of Transport Geography, 2016,53:50-60.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.01.013 |
[30] |
Lee T, Kim H J. Barriers of voyaging on the Northern Sea Route: A perspective from shipping companies. Marine Policy, 2015,62:264-270.
doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.09.006 |
[31] |
Ho J. The implications of Arctic sea ice decline on shipping. Marine Policy, 2010,34(3):713-715.
doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2009.10.009 |
[32] |
Sur J M, Kim D J. Multi criteria evaluation of beneficial effect of commercializing Northern Sea Route on Europe and Asia countries. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 2000,36(4):193-201.
doi: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2020.03.002 |
[33] |
Valsson T, Ulfarsson G F. Future changes in activity structures of the globe under a receding Arctic ice scenario. Futures, 2011,43(4):450-459.
doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2010.12.002 |
[34] |
Sun Z, Zheng J F. Finding potential hub locations for liner shipping. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2016,93:750-761.
doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2016.03.005 |
[35] | He Shufeng, Ping Ying, Zhang Weihua. Influence of Arctic Passage on China’s trade potential: An empirical research based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Journal of International Trade, 2013(8):3-12. |
[ 贺书锋, 平瑛, 张伟华. 北极航道对中国贸易潜力的影响: 基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究. 国际贸易问题, 2013(8):3-12.] | |
[36] | Li Zhenfu, Yan Qianqian, Liu Cuilian. Division of the Arctic route’s economic hinterland. World Regional Studies, 2016,25(5):22-28. |
[ 李振福, 闫倩倩, 刘翠莲. 北极航线经济腹地范围和等级划分研究. 世界地理研究, 2016,25(5):22-28.] | |
[37] | Borgerson S G. Arctic meltdown: The economic and security implications of global warming. Foreign Affairs, 2008,87(2):63-77. |
[38] | Li Zhenfu, Sun Jianping. Analysis of criterion game mechanism of Arctic Route geopolitical. World Regional Studies, 2011,20(1):56-62. |
[ 李振福, 孙建平. 北极航线地缘政治的规范博弈机制分析. 世界地理研究, 2011,20(1):56-62.] | |
[39] | Yang Jian. On the Arctic governance regimes and non-Arctic actors’ participation. Journal of Social Sciences, 2014(1):4-13. |
[ 杨剑. 域外因素的嵌入与北极治理机制. 社会科学, 2014(1):4-13.] | |
[40] | Liu Weidong, Song Zhouying, Liu Zhigao, et al. Progress in research on the Belt and Road Initiative. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(4):620-636. |
[ 刘卫东, 宋周莺, 刘志高, 等. “一带一路”建设研究进展. 地理学报, 2018,73(4):620-636.] | |
[41] | Li Zhenfu, Peng Yan. Research on the connection power theory and the construction of the supraglacial Silk Road. Journal of Northeast Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2019(4):23-32. |
[ 李振福, 彭琰. “通权论”与“冰上丝绸之路”建设研究. 东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版), 2019(4):23-32.] | |
[42] |
Baykasoğlu A, Kaplanoğlu V. Application of activity-based costing to a land transportation company: A case study. International Journal of Production Economics, 2008,116(2):308-324.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.049 |
[43] |
Theocharis D, Rodrigues V S, Pettit S, et al. Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route: The role of distance, fuel prices, ice breaking fees and ship size for the product tanker market. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2019,129:111-135.
doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.07.003 |
[44] | Cai Jingwei. Market situation and development trend of ultra-large container carrier in the world. World Shipping, 2018,41(1):5-11. |
[ 蔡敬伟. 全球超大型集装箱船市场形势及发展趋势. 世界海运, 2018,41(1):5-11.] | |
[45] | Pharand D. The Arctic waters and the Northwest Passage: A final revisit. Ocean Development & International Law, 2007,38(1/2):3-69. |
[46] | Brigham L W. Environmental security challenges and the Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment//Berkman P, Vylegzhanin A. Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Dordrecht: Springer, 2013. |
[47] | Xu H, Yin Z F, Jia D S, et al. The potential seasonal alternative of Asia-Europe container service via Northern Sea Route under the Arctic sea ice retreat. Maritime Policy & Management, 2011,38(5):541-560. |
[48] | Faury O, Cheaitou A, Givry P. Best maritime transportation option for the Arctic crude oil: A profit decision model. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2020,136:101985. DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2020.101865. |
[49] | You Xue. The study on container shipping economy through Northeast Passage[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2015. |
[ 尤雪. 北极东北航线集装箱运输经济性的仿真研究[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2015.] | |
[50] | Chen Yu. Influence of high fuel cost on container ship fuel consumption management. Containerization, 2008,19(12):19-22. |
[ 陈羽. 高燃油成本对集装箱船油耗管理的影响. 集装箱化, 2008,19(12):19-22.] | |
[51] | Yu Jinping. Comparative advantage and trade complementarity between China and other Asian economies. The Journal of World Economy, 2003,26(5):33-40, 80. |
[ 于津平. 中国与东亚主要国家和地区间的比较优势与贸易互补性. 世界经济, 2003,26(5):33-40, 80.] | |
[52] |
Battese G E, Coelli T J. A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics, 1995,20(2):325-332.
doi: 10.1007/BF01205442 |
[53] |
Fratianni M, Kang H. Heterogeneous distance-elasticities in trade gravity models. Economics Letters, 2006,90(1):68-71.
doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2005.07.007 |
[54] | Armstrong S . Measuring trade and trade potential: A survey. The Australian National University, Asia Pacific Economic Papers No. 368, 2007. |
[55] | Cai Hongbo. Trade flow effect of China free trade areas: Analysis based on gravity model with panel data. Journal of International Trade, 2010(1):25-31. |
[ 蔡宏波. 我国自由贸易区的贸易流量效应:基于面板数据的引力模型分析. 国际贸易问题, 2010(1):25-31.] | |
[56] |
Xu H, Yang D. LNG-fuelled container ship sailing on the Arctic Sea: Economic and emission assessment. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2020,87:102556.
doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102556 |
[57] |
Kuusi O, Lauhakangas O, Ruttas-Küttim R. From metaphoric litany text to scenarios: How to use metaphors in futures studies. Futures, 2016,84:124-132.
doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2016.03.014 |
[58] |
Ye Binhong, Cheng Yang, Wang Li, et al. A systematic review on geo-relations research in the Arctic. Progress in Geography, 2019,38(4):489-505.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.04.003 |
[ 叶滨鸿, 程杨, 王利, 等. 北极地区地缘关系研究综述. 地理科学进展, 2019,38(4):489-505.] | |
[59] | Dai Changlei, Zhang Xiaohong, Yu Miao, et al. Feasibility study on land-river combined transport between Dalian and Tiksi. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019,74(6):1224-1235. |
[ 戴长雷, 张晓红, 于淼, 等. 大连至北冰洋季克西港陆河联运路线的可行性研究. 地理学报, 2019,74(6):1224-1235.] |
No related articles found! |