北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105003

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1078-1089.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105003

北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制

王利¹(), 吴良², 李言鹏¹, 张丹², 杨林生¹^,³()

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所世界地理与资源研究中心,北京 100101
3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-05-18 修回日期:2021-03-15 出版日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-07-25
通讯作者: 杨林生(1966-), 男, 河南唐河县人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事世界地理与环境健康研究。E-mail: yangls@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:王利(1985-), 女, 陕西绥德人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事环境健康与世界地理研究。E-mail: wangli@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4);中国科学院先导专项(XDA19070502)

The geopolitical driving forces and mechanism on Arctic energy exploitation

WANG Li¹(), WU Liang², LI Yanpeng¹, ZHANG Dan², YANG Linsheng¹^,³()

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Research Center for World Geography & Resources, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-05-18 Revised:2021-03-15 Published:2021-05-25 Online:2021-07-25
Supported by:
Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4);The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19070502)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变暖加速了北极海冰的融化,使得北极能源开发变成可能,大大激发了泛北极国家参与北极能源开发的积极性。本文在分析了泛北极国家（北极8国和13个观察员国）能源贸易格局的基础上;利用相关性分析方法,明确了影响北极能源的关键地缘要素;并通过模糊定性分析（fs/QCA）,揭示了关键地缘要素及其组合对不同国家开发或参与开发北极能源的驱动机制。结果表明：① 北极国家多为能源输出国,而北极观察员国多为能源进口国;中国从北极国家能源进口量较少,潜力较大;② 能源依赖性、能源重要性、军事力量、对外投资影响力和国家包容性是影响泛北极国家开发北极能源的关键地缘要素,而气候表现和环保指数与北极能源开发的关系并不显著;③ 关键地缘要素的作用路径主要包括：一是以能源依赖性、能源重要性和军事力量为主要驱动,包括俄罗斯、中国、美国、印度、日本和韩国等国家;二是受到包容性发展限制的、以大国力量为驱动的西欧国家;三是以能源重要性为驱动的北欧国家。基于以上研究结果,本文提出了中国参与北极能源开发的对策建议。

关键词: 北极, 能源, 地缘要素, 驱动机制, 模糊定性分析法（fs/QCA）

Abstract:

The accelerating global warming enhanced the Arctic sea ice melting, which made it possible to explore energy resources in the Arctic region. This study firstly analyzed the energy trade structure in the pan-Arctic countries, covering Arctic countries and the observer countries. Secondly, it uses correlation analysis to extract the direct geopolitical factors including energy dependence, energy importance, energy security, and indirect geopolitical factors including national power (military power and foreign investment influence), climate and environmental protection and social inclusive development, which might influence the willingness of the pan-Arctic countries to exploit the Arctic energy. Finally, we apply fuzzy-set qualitative analysis (fs/QCA) to examine the driving mechanisms of these geopolitical factors on the willingness to exploit the Arctic energy. The results showed that: (1) Arctic countries mainly serve as energy exporter while observer countries mainly serve as energy importer. The amount of China's energy imported from Arctic counties is small at current stage, but with a huge potential. (2) Energy dependence, energy importance, national power and social inclusive development are significantly correlated with the willingness on Arctic energy exploitation, acting as key geopolitical factors. (3) Key geopolitical factors drive or impede the willingness on Arctic energy exploitation through three major pathways, among which, national power together with energy dependence or energy importance behave as the major driving forces for most of the pan-Arctic countries, large countries in particular, such as Russia, USA, China and India. The second pathway is driven by national power but restricted by social inclusive development, including most European countries and Canada. The third pathway is mainly driven by energy importance while restricted by social inclusive development, mainly including Norway. Finally, this study provided coping strategies and suggestions on China's participating Arctic energy exploitation based on the energy trade structure and the driving mechanisms.

Key words: Arctic, energy, geopolitical factor, driving mechanism, fs/QCA

王利, 吴良, 李言鹏, 张丹, 杨林生. 北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1078-1089.

WANG Li, WU Liang, LI Yanpeng, ZHANG Dan, YANG Linsheng. The geopolitical driving forces and mechanism on Arctic energy exploitation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1078-1089.

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	依赖性	重要性	安全性	军事力量	FDI	气候表现	环保指数	包容度
依赖性	1
重要性	0.684^***	1
安全性	-0.536^***	-0.310^*	1
军事力量	0.564^***	0.283	-0.489^**	1
FDI	0.105	-0.108	0.155	0.421^**	1
气候表现	-0.341^*	-0.213	0.137	-0.276	-0.504^***	1
环保指数	-0.575^***	-0.301	0.340^*	0.320^*	-0.024	0.254	1
包容度	-0.697^***	-0.458^**	-0.431^**	-0.574^***	-0.026	0.398^**	-0.652^***	1
开发积极性	0.598^***	0.507^***	-0.155	0.531^**	0.383^**	-0.196	-0.075	-0.330^*

路径	解	覆盖度	一致性	国家
1	~包容性∗军事力量∗重要性	0.511	0.828	俄罗斯、波兰、中国、印度、美国
2	~包容性∗军事力量∗依赖性	0.447	0.778	韩国、意大利、中国、印度、日本
3	包容性∗FDI∗军事力量∗~依赖性	0.404	0.760	加拿大、英国
4	包容性∗FDI∗军事力量∗~重要性	0.468	0.846	德国、法国、英国
5	包容性∗~FDI∗重要性∗~军事力量∗~依赖性	0.276	0.765	挪威、瑞典

北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制

The geopolitical driving forces and mechanism on Arctic energy exploitation

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