地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (4): 1034-1048.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202104017

• 地缘关系与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

COVID-19疫情对中国区域经济及产业的影响

吴锋1,2(), 刘桂君1,2, 郭纳良1,2, 李志慧1,2(), 邓祥征1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-27 修回日期:2021-03-04 出版日期:2021-04-25 发布日期:2021-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 李志慧(1990-), 女, 江西鹰潭人, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事水土资源管理与政策研究。E-mail: lizhihui@igsnrr.ac.cn
    李志慧(1990-), 女, 江西鹰潭人, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事水土资源管理与政策研究。E-mail: lizhihui@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:吴锋(1979-), 男, 河北张家口人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕导, 主要从事复杂系统建模与可持续发展研究。E-mail: wufeng@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(72042020)

The effects of COVID-19 epidemic on regional economy and industry in China

WU Feng1,2(), LIU Guijun1,2, GUO Naliang1,2, LI Zhihui1,2(), DENG Xiangzheng1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-05-27 Revised:2021-03-04 Published:2021-04-25 Online:2021-06-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(72042020)

摘要:

科学评估重大突发公共卫生事件的经济系统影响,调控其负效应,提升经济系统韧性,是国家重要战略需求。目前,新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情在中国得以有效遏制,而外源性输入与局部风险仍存,系统辨识其影响路径与作用强度,对经济系统恢复具有指导意义。基于改进的中国多区域一般均衡分析模型,测度了中国不同疫情风险等级区的经济与产业影响,模拟了生产资料供给和产品需求变化下产业经济发展趋势及受损程度。结果表明,宏观经济层面,2020年中国GDP相比常态损失约0.4%~0.8%,导致短期消费平均下降约2%,就业平均下降约0.7%,而物价平均上涨约0.9%。产业经济层面,疫情对消费型及劳动密集型产业短期冲击最大,如服务业产值相比常态下降6.3%。从疫情对产业经济系统的影响分区来看,受疫情影响冲击较大的省份是风险一级区湖北省,呈现出以湖北为中心向四周扩散的蔓延格局,而不同地区受损的主要产业存在显著差异。此外,复工复产和积极财政政策两类疫情应对情景下区域经济系统的恢复强度模拟结果显示,相较于有序复工复产,增加财政刺激政策对GDP的提升率高了0.3%,但物价水平上涨约1.8%,而复工复产举措拉动产业恢复的辐射空间范围更广。

关键词: COVID-19疫情, 经济系统影响, 产业影响, 分区分级, 多区域一般均衡, 系统韧性, 恢复策略

Abstract:

To scientifically assess the effects of major public health emergencies on economic system, regulate its negative effect and improve the resilience of the economic system is an important national strategic requirement. Currently, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic has been effectively contained in China, while exogenous and regional risks remain. Systematical identification of influence path and strength of COVID-19 epidemic on economic system has guiding significance for economic system recovery. Based on the improved multi-regional computable general equilibrium model for China, this research measures the output changes in economic system and major industries in China under different COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control scenarios with different changes in factors supply and products demand. The results show that the provincial economic growth in China falls by 0.4%-0.8% compared with the normal situation in 2020, and residential consumption and employment falls by about 2% and 0.7% respectively, while commodity prices rise by about 0.9% in the short term. From the perspective of industrial economy, consumption-oriented and labor-intensive industries are the most adversely affected in the short term. For example, the output value of the service sector will decrease by 6.3% compared with normal levels. Besides, regarding the regional differences of the effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the economic system and industrial economy, Hubei province, as one of the regions with first-level epidemic prevention and control risk, faces the greatest challenge. The effects of COVID-19 epidemic present a spatial spreading pattern with Hubei province as the center. The major industries that suffer from the impacts of COVID-19 epidemic vary in different regions. In addition, this research assesses the intensity of the regional economic recovery under the resumption of work and production scenario and the proactive fiscal policy scenario respectively. The results show that compared with the resumption of work and production, the effect of increasing fiscal stimulus has more potential for economic system recovery, up by 0.3% in GDP and by 1.8% in commodity price, while resumption of work and production has a wider range of spatial pulling effects on industries.

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic, economic system impact, industrial impact, multi-level and multi-region, multi-regional computable general equilibrium, system resilience, recovery strategy