珠三角地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202104013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市韧性是新兴的研究话题,其实质为城市面对不确定性扰动的抵抗、恢复及适应能力。本文构建“规模—密度—形态”三维城市生态韧性评价体系,借鉴物理学耦合模型测算2000—2015年珠三角城市城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调度,并对其时空变化特征进行深入探讨。结果表明：2000—2015年珠三角各市的城镇化水平总体不断提升,生态韧性水平持续降低,两者耦合协调度总体由基本协调向基本失调下滑。在空间分布上,珠三角地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调度呈现出以珠江入海口城市为中心、向外围递增的圈层式格局。从生态韧性子系统对城镇化与生态韧性耦合协调的作用来看,规模韧性主要起反向阻滞作用;形态韧性的协调影响力主要为正向,且随时间推移不断增强;密度韧性的正向协调影响力持续下降,且在低于零值后负向增长。以新型城镇化引领区域协调发展,并通过严守三区三线、适应生态承载力、合理布局城市绿地等方法提高生态韧性,是未来珠三角实现城镇化与生态韧性协调可持续发展的主要路径。

关键词: 城镇化, 生态韧性, 规模韧性, 密度韧性, 形态韧性, 耦合协调度模型, 珠三角

Abstract:

Urban resilience is an emerging research topic of urban studies, and its essence is the ability of cities to resist, recover and adapt to uncertain disturbances. This paper first constructs a "Size-Density-Morphology" urban ecological resilience evaluation system, and then uses the coupling coordination degree model to measure the degree of coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2015, and conducts an in-depth discussion on its temporal and spatial characteristics. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2015, the urbanization level of cities in the study area generally increased while the level of ecological resilience declined. The coupling coordination degree between the two systems decreased from basic coordination to basic imbalance. (2) In terms of spatial distribution, the coupling coordination degree between ecological resilience and urbanization of cities presented a circle pattern that centered on the cities at the mouth of the Pearl River and increased toward the periphery. (3) Ecological resilience subsystems played different roles in the coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological resilience. Specifically, size resilience mainly played a reverse blocking role; the influence of morphological resilience was mainly positive and continued to increase over time; the effect of density resilience was positive and continued to decline and further became negative after falling below zero. Leading the coordinated development of regions with new urbanization, and improving ecological resilience by strictly observing the three areas and three lines, adapting to ecological carrying capacity, and rationally arranging urban green spaces, are the main path for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta in the future.

Key words: urbanization, ecological resilience, size resilience, density resilience, morphological resilience, coupling coordination model, Pearl River Delta

王少剑, 崔子恬, 林靖杰, 谢金燕, 苏坤. 珠三角地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(4): 973-991.

WANG Shaojian, CUI Zitian, LIN Jingjie, XIE Jinyan, SU Kun. Coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(4): 973-991.

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土地类型	均衡因子r_i	产量因子m_j
耕地	2.8	2.88
草地	0.5	1.38
林地	1.1	0.88
水域	0.2	2.01
化石燃料用地	1.1	0.00
建筑用地	2.8	2.88

一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	类型
人口城镇化	0.3316	城镇化率	0.0548	+
		城市人口密度	0.1334	+
		非农产业从业人员比重	0.0317	+
		城市常住人口数	0.1117	+
经济城镇化	0.6684	人均GDP	0.1311	+
		第二产业产值占GDP比重	0.0412	+
		第三产业产值占GDP比重	0.0582	+
		城市经济密度	0.1428	+
		固定资产投资	0.2059	+

指标	权重	类型
规模韧性	0.4473	+
密度韧性	0.3331	+
形态韧性	0.2197	+

类型	耦合协调度	亚类型	U₁与U₂相对大小
高级协调	0.8 < D ≤ 1	高级协调—城镇化滞后	U₂-U₁> 0.1
		高级协调—生态韧性滞后	U₁-U₂> 0.1
		高级协调	0 ≤ \|U₁-U₂\| ≤ 0.1
基本协调	0.5 < D ≤ 0.8	基本协调—城镇化滞后	U₂-U₁> 0.1
		基本协调—生态韧性滞后	U₁-U₂> 0.1
		基本协调	0 ≤ \|U₁-U₂\| ≤ 0.1
基本失调	0.3 < D ≤ 0.5	基本失调—城镇化受阻	U₂-U₁> 0.1
		基本失调—生态韧性受阻	U₁-U₂> 0.1
		基本失调	0 ≤ \|U₁-U₂\| ≤ 0.1
严重失调	0 < D ≤ 0.3	严重失调—城镇化受阻	U₂-U₁> 0.1
		严重失调—生态韧性受阻	U₁-U₂> 0.1
		严重失调	0 ≤ \|U₁-U₂\| ≤ 0.1

城市	已开发建设用地面积(km²)			适宜建设用地面积(km²)	规模韧性
城市	2000年	2010年	2015年	适宜建设用地面积(km²)	2000年	2010年	2015年
广州	708.054	1183.540	1257.113	4417.095	6.238	3.732	3.514
深圳	493.923	746.907	772.350	1346.315	2.726	1.803	1.743
珠海	127.323	183.679	193.981	1129.710	8.873	6.150	5.824
佛山	491.504	967.901	1046.979	2483.358	5.053	2.566	2.372
江门	458.461	595.465	665.087	6248.908	13.630	10.494	9.396
肇庆	249.645	331.106	358.134	7838.219	31.397	23.673	21.886
惠州	359.835	597.613	645.415	5928.079	16.474	9.920	9.185
东莞	553.752	1041.234	1079.704	1892.422	3.417	1.817	1.753
中山	185.572	423.043	445.965	1242.172	6.694	2.936	2.785
珠三角平均	3628.070	6070.488	6464.728	32526.277	8.965	5.358	5.031