地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (4): 767-780.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202104001
• 城市研究 • 下一篇
收稿日期:
2019-09-16
修回日期:
2020-12-13
出版日期:
2021-04-25
发布日期:
2021-06-25
通讯作者:
李诚固(1960-), 男, 吉林通化人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事城市地理与城乡规划研究。E-mail: lcg6010@nenu.edu.cn作者简介:
马佐澎(1989-), 男, 山东潍坊人, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事城市地理与城乡规划研究。E-mail: mazuopeng@iga.ac.cn
基金资助:
MA Zuopeng1(), LI Chenggu2(
), ZHANG Pingyu1,3
Received:
2019-09-16
Revised:
2020-12-13
Published:
2021-04-25
Online:
2021-06-25
Supported by:
摘要:
基于城镇收缩视角认识东北三省人口流失与经济衰退问题,对深化中国老工业基地转型理论具有重要意义。本文以东北三省县级市(县)为研究对象,利用ArcGIS与空间计量方法,分析增长与收缩城镇的特征与空间关系,研究收缩城镇的职能差异和空间分布格局,探讨区域城镇收缩的形成机制与应对措施。结果显示:2000年以来,东北三省出现了明显的城镇增长与收缩分异现象,42.85%的县(市)发生城镇收缩问题;增长型城镇制造业与服务业日益高级化;收缩型城镇新型产业发展与产业结构升级缓慢,经济竞争力不断弱化;增长与收缩城镇存在密切的空间关联,增长型城镇一方面通过集聚效应不断吸取收缩城镇的人口、资本等生产要素,另一方面通过传统产业的空间转移加重收缩型城镇的经济转型压力;城镇收缩程度由北至南呈高、低起伏状变化,由东至西呈先增强,后减弱的变化态势,并且加工型城镇收缩程度最高,工矿型城镇次之,旅游与口岸型城镇相对较低;城镇收缩的影响因素包括公共服务设施发展滞后、工业发展与市场需求错位、产业结构关联度低、人口结构老龄化和区域中心地的集聚效应5个方面,且作用强度依次增强。依据经济长波理论与地方发展实际,东北三省未来将经历长期的城镇收缩过程。主动适应收缩,通过城镇精明收缩,对人口与经济要素进行优化重组,是东北三省未来发展应做出的战略选择。
马佐澎, 李诚固, 张平宇. 东北三省城镇收缩的特征及机制与响应[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(4): 767-780.
MA Zuopeng, LI Chenggu, ZHANG Pingyu. Characteristics, mechanism and response of urban shrinkage in the three provinces of Northeast China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(4): 767-780.
表1
东北三省城镇收缩现象影响因素的OLS回归结果
收缩城镇 | 加工型 | 工矿型 | 旅游型 | 口岸型 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
常数 | 1.043 | 2.301 | 1.173 | 1.305 | 0.941 |
人均公共财政收入 | 0.007 | -0.247 | -0.853** | -0.215 | -0.234 |
人均固定资产投资 | 0.316* | -0.220 | -0.439 | -0.515 | -0.356 |
工业化水平 | -0.054* | -0.174 | -0.531** | 0.094 | -0.052 |
工业集约化水平 | 0.114* | 0.302 | 0.277** | -0.061 | -0.031 |
工业绿色化水平 | -0.093* | 0.135* | -0.476** | 0.006 | 0.024 |
服务业发展规模 | 0.361** | 0.547 | 0.608* | -0.631 | 0.514 |
万人在校生 | 0.711*** | 0.324 | 0.279** | 0.169 | 0.231 |
万人医疗床位 | -1.124** | -0.976 | -1.532 | -2.041* | -1.032 |
交通优势度 | 0.210** | 1.498*** | 0.348 | -1.312* | -1.272 |
老年人口比例 | -0.456* | -0.573* | -0.379** | -1.231 | -0.54 |
R2 | 0.638 | 0.579 | 0.524 | 0.507 | 0.432 |
调整R2 | 0.577 | 0.566 | 0.523 | 0.493 | 0.407 |
F统计 | 10.394 | 9.725 | 10.061 | 8.301 | 5.430 |
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