地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (3): 626-644.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202103010

• 环境与生态系统服务 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国生态过渡带分布的空间识别及情景模拟

范泽孟1,2,3()   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101
    2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049
    3.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-19 修回日期:2021-03-09 出版日期:2021-03-25 发布日期:2021-05-25
  • 作者简介:范泽孟(1977-), 男, 云南镇雄人, 博士, 副研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110007694M), 研究方向为气候变化与生态系统响应、生态模型与系统模拟、土地覆盖情景预测及生物多样性模拟。E-mail: fanzm@lreis.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0507202);国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603702);国家自然科学基金项目(41971358);国家自然科学基金项目(41930647);中国科学院先导专项(XDA20030203);资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室自主部署创新研究计划

Spatial identification and scenario simulation of ecotone distribution in China

FAN Zemeng1,2,3()   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2020-10-19 Revised:2021-03-09 Published:2021-03-25 Online:2021-05-25
  • Supported by:
    National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC0507202);National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0603702);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971358);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930647);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20030203);Innovation Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, CAS

摘要:

在全球变化及其生态环境效应研究中,如何对生态过渡带的空间分布格局及变化情景进行空间定量识别和模拟分析,对揭示气候变化和人类活动对全球变化的响应及反馈具有指示性意义。在对HLZ模型进行修正和拓展的基础上,建立了生态过渡带类型的空间识别方法。并基于1981—2010年的全国782个气候观测站点数据,在实现全国生态过渡带类型及分布的空间识别基础上,结合3种气候情景数据CMIP5 RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5,实现了T0(1981—2010年)、T1(2011—2040年)、T2(2041—2070年)和T3(2071—2100年)4个时段内全国生态过渡带的空间分布格局及其未来情景模拟。另外,引入平均中心空间分析模型,对全国生态过渡带平均中心的时空偏移趋势进行了定量分析。结果显示:在T0~T3时段内,全国共出现41种生态过渡带类型,约占全国陆地面积的18%;冷温带草原/湿润森林与暖温带干旱森林过渡带(564238.5 km2)、冷温带湿润森林与暖温带干旱/湿润森林过渡带(566549.75 m2)、北方湿润/潮湿森林与冷温带湿润森林过渡带(525750.25 km2)是最主要的3种生态过渡带类型。面积占到全国生态过渡带总面积的35%;2010—2100年期间的冷温带荒漠灌丛与暖温带荒漠灌丛/有刺草原过渡带的增加速度最快,在3种情景RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5下,其面积将分别增加3604.2 km2/10a、10063.1 km2/10a和17242 km2/10a;寒冷型生态过渡带类型总体上呈向暖湿型过渡带类型增加的趋势;北方潮湿森林与冷温带湿润/潮湿森林过渡带的平均中心偏移幅度最大,在4个时段内整体向东北方向偏移,其偏移幅度将超过150 km。另外,随着气温的逐渐上升和降水量的增加,中国北方的生态过渡带整体呈向北偏移趋势,南方生态过渡带则逐渐减少且平均中心呈现逐渐向高海拔地区退缩的趋势,气候变化对青藏高原区生态过渡带时空格局的影响日益显著。

关键词: 生态过渡带, 平均中心, 空间识别模型, 情景模拟, 中国

Abstract:

Explicitly identifying the ecotone distribution and scenario change is of important significance to understand the response of ecosystem to climatic change. In this paper, a spatial identification method was developed to analyze the ecotone distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone (iHLZ) model. Based on the climatic observation data of 782 weather stations of China in the T0 (1981-2010) period, and the climatic scenario data of IPCC CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in T1 (2011-2040), T2 (2041-2070) and T3 (2071-2100), the ecotones distribution and scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods. Moreover, a spatial shift trend model of mean center was introduced to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ecotone type during the periods from T0 to T3. The simulated results show that there are 41 ecotone types in China, accounting for 18% of the total land area of China. The ecotones of cold temperate grassland / humid forest and warm temperate arid forest (564238.5 km2), cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid / humid forest (566549.75 km2), and northern humid / humid forest and cold temperate humid forest (525750.25 km2) are the main ecotone types, accounting for 35% of the total area of ecotones in China. Between T0 and T3, the area in the ecotone of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub / thorn steppe will increase at a rate of 4% per decade, which is up by 3604.2, 10063.1 and 17242 km2 per decade under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The cold ecotones will transform to the warm humid ecotones in the future. The average shift distance of mean center in the ecotone of north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub / thorn grassland will be generally larger than that of other ecotones, whose mean center will move to the northeast, and the shift distance will be more than 150 km between T0 and T3. In addition, with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation, the ecotones in northern China will show a shifting northward trend, while the ecotones in southern China will decrease gradually, and their mean center move to the high-altitude areas. The effects of climate change on ecotones will show an increasing trend in China, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: ecotone, mean center, spatial identification method, scenario simulation, China