地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (2): 367-382.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202102009

• 人口与城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中亚五国综合城镇化水平测度及其动力因素

马海涛1,2(), 孙湛1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-31 修回日期:2020-08-25 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-04-25
  • 作者简介:马海涛(1979-), 男, 山东滕州人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110008167M), 主要从事城市地理与规划研究。E-mail: maht@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040402);国家自然科学基金项目(41971209)

Comprehensive urbanization level and its dynamic factors of five Central Asian countries

MA Haitao1,2(), SUN Zhan1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2019-07-31 Revised:2020-08-25 Published:2021-02-25 Online:2021-04-25
  • Supported by:
    Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20040402);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971209)

摘要:

丝绸之路经济带快速发展形势下,开展中亚国家城镇化的深入研究非常必要。本文通过建立综合城镇化水平的评价指标体系,对中亚五国独立以来1991—2017年间的城镇化时空格局和演化过程进行了分析,并运用固定效应面板数据回归模型,从“内—外双向力”视角分析了综合城镇化的动力因素。研究认为:① 中亚国家的城镇化过程受政治经济形势的影响显著,呈现明显的阶段性特征,都经历了独立之初的停滞发展阶段和进入21世纪以来的快速增长阶段;② 中亚城镇化的国家间差异明显,城镇化各子系统的演化特征各异,需要在中亚区域背景下区别看待和清晰认知各国的城镇化进程;③ 内外部因素共同作用于中亚国家的城镇化进程,对外铁路交通设施对中亚国家城镇化的发展尤为重要,进出口贸易和引进外资两个外向力对城镇化的影响较为显著;④ 人口和经济规模越小的国家,其城镇化过程受国内外政治经济形势的干扰越明显,越需要开展良好的国际合作,以推进城镇化的顺利、健康发展。本研究可为丝绸之路经济带背景下中亚国家城镇化的健康发展和对外合作提供研究参考。

关键词: 中亚, 国家尺度, 综合城镇化, 动力因素, 外向力, 丝绸之路经济带

Abstract:

Central Asia was the main thoroughfare of the ancient Silk Road and is the core hub of the Silk Road Economic Belt. The healthy urbanization process in Central Asian countries will inevitably play a significant role in promoting regional socio-economic progress. In the context of the accelerated development of the Silk Road Economic Belt, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the urbanization of Central Asian countries. However, the current research does not focus enough on the urbanization of Central Asia; in addition, there is a lack of research on the outward force of urbanization in the era of globalization. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns and evolution of urbanization from 1991 to 2017, since the independence of the five Central Asian countries, by establishing an evaluation index system at the level of comprehensive urbanization. A fixed-effect panel data regression model is used to analyze the dynamic factors of comprehensive urbanization from the perspective of "internal-external force". The results are as follows: (1) The urbanization process of Central Asian countries is significantly influenced by the political and economic situation and presents periodic characteristics. All the five countries experienced a stagnation development stage at the beginning of independence and a rapid growth stage after the beginning of the 21st century. (2) The differences in the urbanization of Central Asia are obvious, and the evolutionary characteristics of each subsystem of urbanization are different. It is necessary to distinguish and clearly understand the urbanization process of each country in Central Asia. (3) Internal and external factors play a role in the urbanization process of Central Asian countries. The external railway transportation facilities are particularly important for the development of urbanization in these countries. The two outward forces of import and export trade and the introduction of foreign capital have a significant impact on urbanization. (4) Countries with smaller populations and economic scales should participate in international cooperation to promote the healthy development of urbanization. The results of the study indicate that internal and external factors work together in the urbanization process of Central Asian countries, and external forces are particularly important for the development of such urbanization. Central Asian countries need to drive the healthy development of urbanization by establishing high-quality and comprehensive external contacts. The Silk Road Economic Belt supports joint construction and sharing. Therefore, the development of multi-faceted international cooperation with China will bring about advantageous opportunities for the development of urbanization in Central Asia.

Key words: Central Asia, national scale, comprehensive urbanization, dynamic factors, external dynamic, Silk Road Economic Belt