全球高科技产品贸易结构演化及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202012015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为清晰刻画全球高科技产品贸易体系变迁,本文利用世界银行以及联合国商品贸易数据库中2000—2017年高科技产品贸易数据,从产品结构、网络结构和影响因素3个方面探讨了全球高科技产品贸易结构的演化态势。研究发现：① 产品结构上,以电信设备为主的电子通讯产品主导全球高科技贸易发展,但在国家尺度上,化学产品和武器产品是大部分国家（地区）的进口依赖产品或出口优势产品;② 拓扑结构上,全球高科技产品贸易网络持续扩张,联系紧密,是一典型的“小世界”网络,并发育出稳定的“核心—边缘”式的等级层次结构;③ 空间结构上,全球高科技产品贸易格局呈现出由欧洲—北美主导向由东亚主导转变,贸易最大国也由美国转变为中国,网络空间结构也呈现出由以美国为核心的“双拱”格局向以中国为核心的“多拱”格局转变,但美国依然在多种高科技产品贸易网络中占据核心地位;④ 影响因素上,贸易规模、经济邻近性和文化邻近性对全球高科技产品贸易网络演化皆具有一定的正向作用,地理距离对全球高科技产品贸易网络的演化起到明显的负向作用。

关键词: 高科技贸易, 产品结构, 拓扑结构, 空间结构, 影响因素

Abstract:

Since 2018, with the major adjustment of the global political and economic structure, Sino-US relations, which take trade friction as the representation and science and technology competition as the essence, have become increasingly tense. Based on this, this paper characterizes the evolution of global high-tech products trade structure from three aspects of product structure, network structure and influencing factors, and draws some conclusions. First of all, in terms of product structure, global high-tech trade is increasingly concentrated on electronic communication products based on telecommunications equipment. However, on the national scale, chemical products and armament products are not only the dependence products of most countries (regions) on imports, but also the superior export products of most countries (regions). Second, in terms of topology, the global high-tech product trade network continues to expand and is closely linked. It is a typical small-world network and develops a stable "core-edge" hierarchical structure. Third, in terms of spatial structure, the global trade pattern of high-tech products has changed from Europe-North America dominated to East Asia dominated, and also the largest trade country has changed from the United States to China. In addition, the spatial structure has changed from the "double arch" structure with the United States as the core to the "multi-arch" pattern with China as the core, but the United States still occupies a central position in the trade network of various high-tech products. Fourth, in terms of influencing factors, trade scale, economic proximity and cultural proximity have positive effects on the evolution of global high-tech products trade network, while geographical distance has an obvious negative effect. The four factors of political stability, openness, infrastructure and technological innovation only pass the significance test on the importing country (region), while the economic scale only passes the significance test on the exporting country (region). The technological gap is one of the driving forces for the evolution of the global high-tech product trade network.

Key words: high-tech trade, product structure, topological structure, spatial structure, influencing factor

段德忠, 杜德斌. 全球高科技产品贸易结构演化及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(12): 2759-2776.

DUAN Dezhong, DU Debin. Structural evolution of global high-tech trade system: Products, networks and influencing factors[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(12): 2759-2776.

图/表 6

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

表3

全球高科技产品贸易体系演化影响因素的面板固定效应模型估计结果

变量	系数	标准误差	t	P > \|t\|
$Lco_Prox 1 i ? j t$	-0.065^***	0.009	-6.91	0.006
$Lco_Prox 2 i ? j t$	1.300^***	0.029	44.34	0.000
$Ave_Di s i ? j t$	-1.110^***	0.007	-153.40	0.000
$Eco_Pro x i ? j t$	0.254^***	0.017	14.92	0.001
$Clu_Pro x i ? j t$	1.041^***	0.093	11.23	0.002
$H_Tr a i t$	1.060^***	0.056	18.87	0.000
$H_Tr a j t$	0.572^***	0.083	6.92	0.006
$P_Sta b i t$	0.086	0.111	0.77	0.495
$P_Sta b j t$	0.143^**	0.031	4.55	0.020
$GD P i t$	0.183^**	0.054	3.39	0.043
$GD P j t$	0.191	0.101	1.89	0.155
$P_MI G i t$	0.008	0.039	0.22	0.842
$P_MI G j t$	0.121^**	0.029	4.21	0.024
$Ne t i t$	0.080	0.060	1.34	0.271
$Ne t j t$	0.116^***	0.013	9.20	0.003
$Pc t i t$	0.042	0.024	1.70	0.187
$Pc t j t$	-0.033^**	0.006	-5.08	0.015

表3

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高科技产品种类	产品贸易类别(SITC Rev. 3)
航空航天(Aerospace)	7921;7922;7923;7924;7925;79291;79293;714-71489-71499;87411
计算机—办公设备(Computers-office Machines)	75113;75131;75132;75134;752-7529;75997
电子通讯(Electronics-Telecommunications)	76381;76383;764-76493-76499;7722;77261;77318;77625;77627;7763;7764;7768;89879
药品(Pharmacy)	5413;5415;5416;5421;5422
科学仪器(Scientific Instruments)	774;8711;8713;8714;8719;87211;874-87411-8742;88111;88121;88411;88419;89961;89963;89966;89967
电子机械(Electrical Machinery)	77862;77863;77864;77865;7787;77884
化学(Chemistry)	52222;52223;52229;52269;525;531;57433;591
非电子机械(Non-electrical Machinery)	71489;71499;71871;71877;71878;72847;7311;73131;73135;73142;73144;73151;73153;73161;73163;73165;73312;73314;73316;7359;73733;73735
武器(Armament)	891

位序	2000年		2010年		2017年
位序	出口对	出口额	出口对	出口额	出口对	出口额
1	日本→美国	418.382	中国香港→中国	1142.401	中国→美国	1294.611
2	美国→加拿大	350.424	中国→中国香港	1092.109	中国→中国香港	1274.096
3	墨西哥→美国	316.236	中国→美国	834.590	中国香港→中国	700.780
4	加拿大→美国	302.776	墨西哥→美国	374.187	墨西哥→美国	607.773
5	美国→日本	245.921	韩国→中国	297.867	韩国→中国	363.661
6	美国→墨西哥	223.485	美国→墨西哥	278.747	美国→墨西哥	354.793
7	中国香港→中国	211.236	日本→中国	242.756	中国→日本	333.898
8	新加坡→美国	191.068	中国→日本	241.613	中国→荷兰	321.819
9	美国→英国	190.029	新加坡→中国香港	241.591	新加坡→中国香港	315.676
10	韩国→美国	181.302	中国→荷兰	236.449	美国→加拿大	274.947
11	马来西亚→美国	140.067	美国→加拿大	222.881	中国→韩国	266.247
12	美国→韩国	139.441	中国→德国	221.162	日本→中国	265.397
13	美国→德国	138.656	法国→德国	220.161	德国→美国	236.684
14	德国→法国	138.589	中国→韩国	214.139	新加坡→中国	214.837
15	德国→美国	127.409	德国→法国	212.955	中国→德国	209.958
16	新加坡→马来西亚	124.978	加拿大→美国	168.001	加拿大→美国	207.916
17	马来西亚→新加坡	112.685	新加坡→中国	155.106	德国→中国	196.985
18	中国→美国	110.610	韩国→美国	152.933	德国→法国	189.080
19	法国→美国	109.629	新加坡→马来西亚	150.833	日本→美国	169.018
20	中国→中国香港	109.283	日本→美国	134.076	中国→印度	162.835