地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (12): 2716-2729.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202012012

• 城市与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

邻近性对人口再流动目的地选择的影响

刘涛1,2(), 卓云霞1,2, 王洁晶3()   

  1. 1.北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
    2.北京大学未来城市研究中心,北京 100871
    3.中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-14 修回日期:2020-07-27 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-02-25
  • 作者简介:刘涛(1987-), 男, 安徽宿州人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事城镇化、人口迁移、村镇发展研究。E-mail: liutao@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41801146);国家自然科学基金项目(41701182);国家自然科学基金项目(41701462);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJC840022);中国宏观经济研究院重点课题(A2019051005);英国研究理事会全球挑战研究基金项目(ES/P011055/1)

How multi-proximity affects destination choice in onward migration: A nested logit model

LIU Tao1,2(), ZHUO Yunxia1,2, WANG Jiejing3()   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Center for Urban Future Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    3. School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2020-03-14 Revised:2020-07-27 Published:2020-12-25 Online:2021-02-25
  • Supported by:
    Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801146);Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701182);Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701462);Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(18YJC840022);Key Program of Academy of Macroeconomic Research(A2019051005);UKRI's Global Challenge Research Fund(ES/P011055/1)

摘要:

中国人口流动进入总量稳定下的空间调整新阶段,存量流动人口的再流动成为塑造人口和城镇化格局的主体因素。本文从户籍地和前期流入地两个基点出发,综合考虑地理、制度、信息、社会、认知等维度,构建了双重多维邻近性影响人口再流动目的地选择的理论框架,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和嵌套Logit模型开展实证研究。结果表明:双重多维邻近性对人口再流动的空间选择具有显著而稳健的影响。人口再流动时,会选择与自身知识水平更匹配、与户籍地和前期流入地都更近、信息联系都更强的城市,但社会联系仍主要依靠老家。流动人口具有回到户籍所在省(区、市)的主观意愿,但省内城市普遍机会不多、环境欠佳,缺乏吸引力。相对而言,女性对同乡网络的依赖高于男性;新生代流动人口在很多方面继承了老一代的特点,甚至比后者更依赖老家的信息和社会联系;高学历流动人口在流入地的深度社会融入使其能够利用本地化社会资本,再流动的空间选择也与流入地居民更为类似。

关键词: 人口再流动, 目的地选择, 多维邻近性, 嵌套Logit模型, 中国

Abstract:

China's migrant population continued to grow for decades, but has slowly declined since 2015. In such a context, the destination choice of stock migrants has a profound influence on the future pattern of population distribution and urbanisation. Previous analysis and modelling of internal migration in China have mainly focused on the primary migration or the most recent one, while it has long been recognized that migration is a repetitive event. Migrants have various motives and strategies in different stages, and the experience gained from the primary migration will affect the subsequent one. So, the primary and onward migrations differ in their spatial patterns. This paper focused on China's onward migrants who have moved once. Considering both the origins and primary destinations, we constructed a framework of how multi-proximity, which includes cognitive proximity, geographic proximity, institutional proximity, informational proximity and social proximity, which generates an influence on destination choice by affecting the migration cost. Based on data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, and by the use of the nested logit model, we make an empirical test. The results show that migrants have a dual identity of the origin and the primary destination, and their onward migration is based simultaneously on these two places. After controlling the effects of cities' characteristics, dual multi-proximity has a significant and robust impact on migrants' decision-making. Onward migrants prefer destinations which match them well in education background, and are geographically adjacent to, and closely connected with their origins and previous destinations. The migration network between a destination and its origins increases the likelihood that onward migrants will migrate to such a destination. Besides, migrants are willing to return to the province of their origins subjectively, but cities in such provinces are generally lack of attractiveness due to low level of socio-economic development. However, the effect of proximities varies from different groups. This is reflected in the following facts. First, women are more dependent on their hometown networks than men. Second, the new generation of migrants is similar to the older one in many ways, but relies more on the information and social connections of their hometowns than the latter. Finally, highly educated migrants are able to take advantage of localized social capital owing to their deep social integration in the primary destinations and are less dependent on the social capital in their origins. So, their destination choice is more similar to local residents than their counterparts.

Key words: onward migration, destination choice, proximity, nested logit model, China