地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (11): 2475-2489.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202011015

• COVID-19疫情影响分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国COVID-19疫情时空演化与综合防控

李钢1,2,3(), 王皎贝1, 徐婷婷1, 高兴1, 金安楠1, 于悦1   

  1. 1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
    2. 陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安 710127
    3. 西北大学地表系统与灾害研究院,西安 710127
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-31 修回日期:2020-10-30 出版日期:2020-11-25 发布日期:2021-01-25
  • 作者简介:李钢(1979-), 男, 四川成都人, 教授, 博导, 中国地理学会会员(S110009694M), 主要研究方向为人地关系与空间安全、灾害地理与犯罪地理。E-mail: lig@nwu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    西北大学防治新型冠状病毒肺炎紧急科研专项引导基金重点项目(2020);西北大学“仲英青年学者”支持计划(2016);西北大学“人地关系与空间安全”特色优势科研团队建设项目(2019)

Spatio-temporal evolution process and integrated measures for prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in China

LI Gang1,2,3(), WANG Jiaobei1, XU Tingting1, GAO Xing1, JIN Annan1, YU Yue1   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
    2. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China
    3. Institute of Earth Surface System and Hazards, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
  • Received:2020-03-31 Revised:2020-10-30 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2021-01-25
  • Supported by:
    Key Project of the Special Guidance Fund for Emergency Study on the Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 by Northwest University(2020);Tang Scholar Program of Northwest University(2016);"Human-Environment Relations and Space Security" Characteristic & Advantage Research Team Construction Project of Northwest University(2019)

摘要:

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情仍在全球范围内蔓延,是当前人类社会面临的重大突发公共卫生事件,对个人、家庭、社会乃至国家均产生深远影响。基于官方通报的病例数据及相关POI数据,综合运用数理统计与空间分析等方法,从省域、市域、县域和小区4个空间尺度探究疫情在中国的时空演化过程,进而探索疫情防控的综合机制与策略。结果表明:① 中国COVID-19疫情在时间演变上,始于大雪,盛于立春,衰于惊蛰,滞于春分,并经历早期武汉主导暴发、中期全国差异扩散、后期武汉主导衰减及末期本土疫情传播基本阻断4个阶段,对重要事件节点响应明显;② 空间分布呈现“喇叭”状的“一核两弧多岛”格局,主要受邻近性与联系强度影响;空间演化经历“核发—群发—散发—点发”4阶段模态,各阶段核心聚集区均位于湖北省内。最后,整合中国疫情演化的影响因素及相关措施,提出针对当前疫情发展和应对未来类似挑战的人地互馈协同发展的有效对策,具体随时间表现为及时响应、统筹合作、常态防控及严防输入等,并展望未来深入探究的方向。

关键词: COVID-19, 重大疫情, 时空演化, 应对策略, 中国

Abstract:

The sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), an unexpected emergency event in human society, is spreading globally and has severe impacts on human health and social development. Based on the confirmed COVID-19 cases' details manually extracted from the official reports and the relevant Point of Interest (POI) data, this paper aims to explore the sociodemographic characteristics of confirmed COVID-19 cases and examine the spatio-temporal evolution patterns on different spatial scales in China by using text analysis, spatial analysis and other methods. Furthermore, we provide targeted measures for prevention and control of this epidemic. The results indicate that: (1) In contrast to the twenty-four solar terms, the epidemic started at Heavy Snow, ran rampant in the Beginning of Spring, declined in the Awakening of Insects, and stagnated at the Vernal Equinox. It experienced four stages: the early period of Wuhan dominant outbreak, the middle period of cross-country diffusion, the later period of Wuhan dominant decline and the ending period of rare local epidemic transmission. (2) The spatial distribution presents a pattern of "one core, two arcs and multiple islands", mainly affected by the distance to Wuhan and the flow of population; the spatial evolution is manifested in the mode of "core outbreak - cluster occurrence - dispersion occurrence - point occurrence". The core aggregation area in each stage was located in Hubei province. Finally, by integrating the influencing factors and effective measures of the epidemic evolution in China, this paper proposes effective countermeasures for the spread of the current epidemic and the coordinated development of human resources in response to similar challenges in the future, which are manifested in instant response, coordinated cooperation, regular prevention and control, and strict prevention of importation, etc. Also, the directions of in-depth study in the future are pointed out.

Key words: COVID-19, major epidemic, spatio-temporal evolution, prevention and control measures, China