生态省建设的碳减排效应研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202011012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自1999年以来,中国开始生态省建设试点,探索加强生态环境整体性治理之路。生态省建设作为国家改善生态环境的重大举措,是否对二氧化碳排放产生影响是一个值得深入研究的问题。本文利用2000—2015年中国省级面板数据,采用准自然实验方法,构建双重差分模型,考察和评估了生态省建设的碳减排效应。研究发现：生态省建设不仅可以提高生态环境治理质量,而且具有显著且稳健的碳减排效应;生态省建设的碳减排作用主要是通过经济阻碍效应、生态保护效应及产业结构效应实现;生态省建设虽然对减少碳排放取得一定的成效,但依然存在区域建设不平衡,生态产业发展落后,生态创新、技术进步乏力等有待解决的问题。本文可为更好地推广生态省建设经验、提高生态省建设的碳减排效应提供科学依据。

关键词: 生态省建设, 碳减排, DID模型, PSM-DID模型, 机制分析

Abstract:

To explore the holistic governance of ecological environmental protection, China has started up a pilot project of "Ecological Province" construction since 1999. This is an important measure taken by the Chinese government to improve the ecological environment. Does this project affect carbon emissions? Answering this question can help us learn about the true effects of the "Ecological Province" construction project. Based on the provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, this paper focuses on exploring the effects using the methods of the quasi-natural experiment and counterfactual test. Moreover, this study tries to test the robustness of the effects using the methods of multi-stage DID model, propensity score matching-difference in difference model (PSM-DID model). The results show that: (1) "Ecological Province" construction project has a significant and robust effect on carbon emission reduction. (2) Its mechanism depends on several channels, including impeding the economic growth, protecting ecological environment and adjusting the industrial structure. (3) Nevertheless, there still exist some problems such as the regional disparity of implementing the project, the backward development of ecological industry and the lack of ecological innovation and technological progress. This study can provide a scientific basis for popularizing the experience of "Ecological Province" construction and promoting its effect on carbon emission reduction.

Key words: "Ecological Province" construction, carbon emission reduction, DID model, PSM-DID model, mechanism analysis

王桂新, 李刚. 生态省建设的碳减排效应研究[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2431-2442.

WANG Guixin, LI Gang. Effect of "Ecological Province" construction oncarbon emission reduction in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2431-2442.

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变量名称	表示符号	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
碳排放量	lnCarbon	5.3227	0.6767	3.9759	6.6450
交互项	Dummy×Treat	0.2813	0.4514	0.0000	1.0000
经济规模	lnGDP	9.1599	0.8661	7.4905	11.1579
森林覆盖率	Forest	0.3353	0.1383	0.0754	0.6001
城市化率	Urban	0.4279	0.0914	0.2622	0.6652
产业结构	Rindustry	0.8216	0.1649	0.5985	1.1689
技术进步率	lnA	0.5535	0.1775	0.1542	0.9202
人口密度	lnrpeople	5.7627	0.4532	5.1200	6.6600

变量	模型1	模型2
交互项	-0.0704	-0.0720
	(-2.13)^**	(-1.90)^*
常数项	4.6077	4.6567
	(140.13)^***	(1.45)
控制变量	No	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9615	0.9729
统计量F	162.49	160.06
组别	8	8
观测量	128	128

变量	2002年	2003年	2004年
交互项	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500
	(0.10)	(0.10)	(0.10)
常数项	6.7352	6.7352	6.7352
	(0.98)	(0.98)	(0.98)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9118	0.9118	0.9118
统计量F	31.02	31.02	31.02
组别	8	8	8
观测量	56	56	56

变量	模型1	模型2
交互项	-0.0703	-0.0332
	(-1.58)	（-0.58）
常数项	4.8147	-7.2681
	(109.11)^***	(-2.42)^**
控制变量	No	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9340	0.9575
统计量F	92.00	100.25
组别	8	8
观测量	128	128

变量	表示符号	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
碳排放量	lnCarbon	5.0902	0.8472	2.1633	6.7360
交互项	Dummy×Treat	0.3621	0.4811	0.0000	1.0000
经济规模	lnGDP	8.8572	1.1104	5.5747	11.1956
森林覆盖率	Forest	0.3122	0.1769	0.0294	0.6595
城市化率	Urban	0.4906	0.1546	0.2330	0.8961
产业结构	Rindustry	0.9708	0.4605	0.4971	4.0355
技术进步率	lnA	0.6550	0.2813	0.0533	1.6774
人口密度	lnrpeople	8.8572	1.1104	5.5747	11.1956