地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (11): 2307-2318.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202011003

• 气候与环境演变 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响

田晶(), 郭生练(), 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤   

  1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉 430072
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-09 修回日期:2020-08-25 出版日期:2020-11-25 发布日期:2021-01-25
  • 作者简介:田晶(1994-), 女, 河南驻马店人, 博士, 主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail: jingtian@whu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51539009)

Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Hanjiang River basin

TIAN Jing(), GUO Shenglian(), LIU Dedi, CHEN Qihui, WANG Qiang, YIN Jiabo, WU Xushu, HE Shaokun   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2019-05-09 Revised:2020-08-25 Published:2020-11-25 Online:2021-01-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(51539009)

摘要:

作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式(BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM)输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明:① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期(1966—2005年),在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。

关键词: 气候变化, 土地利用/覆被变化, CA-Markov模型, 径流响应, 汉江流域

Abstract:

As a link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, the hydrological cycle is affected by both climate change and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC). However, most existing research on runoff response focused mainly on the impact of the projected climate variation, neglecting the influence of future LUCC variability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the co-impacts of both projected climate change and LUCC on runoff generation. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and corrected by the Daily Bias Correction (DBC) model. Secondly, the LUCC scenarios are predicted based on the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model. Finally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process under different combinations of climate and LUCC scenarios, with the attempt to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change and LUCC on runoff generation. In this study, the Hanjiang River basin is used as the case study area. The results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum and minimum air temperatures during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8 ℃, 1.6 ℃ in RCP4.5 scenario, respectively, while 3.7%, 2.5 ℃, 2.3 ℃ in RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. (2) During 2010-2050, the area proportions of forest land and construction land in the study area will increase by 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while those of farmland and grassland will decrease by 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. (3) Compared with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the variation range of future runoff under both climate and LUCC is the largest, and the influence of climate change on future runoff is significantly greater than that of LUCC. This study is helpful to maintain the future water resources planning and management of the Hanjiang River basin under future climate and LUCC scenarios.

Key words: climate change, LUCC, CA-Markov model, runoff responses, Hanjiang River basin