地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (11): 2307-2318.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202011003
田晶(), 郭生练(
), 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤
收稿日期:
2019-05-09
修回日期:
2020-08-25
出版日期:
2020-11-25
发布日期:
2021-01-25
通讯作者:
郭生练
作者简介:
田晶(1994-), 女, 河南驻马店人, 博士, 主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
TIAN Jing(), GUO Shenglian(
), LIU Dedi, CHEN Qihui, WANG Qiang, YIN Jiabo, WU Xushu, HE Shaokun
Received:
2019-05-09
Revised:
2020-08-25
Online:
2020-11-25
Published:
2021-01-25
Contact:
GUO Shenglian
Supported by:
摘要:
作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式(BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM)输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明:① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期(1966—2005年),在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。
田晶, 郭生练, 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤. 气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
TIAN Jing, GUO Shenglian, LIU Dedi, CHEN Qihui, WANG Qiang, YIN Jiabo, WU Xushu, HE Shaokun. Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Hanjiang River basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
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