气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb202011003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式（BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM）输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明：① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期（1966—2005年）,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。

关键词: 气候变化, 土地利用/覆被变化, CA-Markov模型, 径流响应, 汉江流域

Abstract:

As a link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, the hydrological cycle is affected by both climate change and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC). However, most existing research on runoff response focused mainly on the impact of the projected climate variation, neglecting the influence of future LUCC variability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the co-impacts of both projected climate change and LUCC on runoff generation. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and corrected by the Daily Bias Correction (DBC) model. Secondly, the LUCC scenarios are predicted based on the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model. Finally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process under different combinations of climate and LUCC scenarios, with the attempt to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change and LUCC on runoff generation. In this study, the Hanjiang River basin is used as the case study area. The results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum and minimum air temperatures during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8 ℃, 1.6 ℃ in RCP4.5 scenario, respectively, while 3.7%, 2.5 ℃, 2.3 ℃ in RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. (2) During 2010-2050, the area proportions of forest land and construction land in the study area will increase by 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while those of farmland and grassland will decrease by 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. (3) Compared with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the variation range of future runoff under both climate and LUCC is the largest, and the influence of climate change on future runoff is significantly greater than that of LUCC. This study is helpful to maintain the future water resources planning and management of the Hanjiang River basin under future climate and LUCC scenarios.

Key words: climate change, LUCC, CA-Markov model, runoff responses, Hanjiang River basin

田晶, 郭生练, 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤. 气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.

TIAN Jing, GUO Shenglian, LIU Dedi, CHEN Qihui, WANG Qiang, YIN Jiabo, WU Xushu, HE Shaokun. Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Hanjiang River basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.

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全流域	基准期	未来(2021—2060年)
	(1966—2005年)	RCP 4.5		RCP 8.5
	均值	均值	变化量Δ	均值	变化量Δ
降水(mm)	849.4	883.0	+33.6	880.9	+31.5
最高气温(℃)	20.3	22.1	+1.8	22.8	+2.5
最低气温(℃)	10.5	12.1	+1.6	12.8	+2.3

土地类型	历史情景	未来情景
土地类型	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
耕地	35.2	34.5	34.2	33.9	33.7
林地	40.0	41.0	41.4	42.0	42.8
草地	19.2	18.6	18.3	17.7	16.7
水域	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.8
建设用地	2.7	3.0	3.2	3.5	3.9
裸地	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1

序号	水文站	率定期(1980—1993年)		检验期(1994—2000年)
序号	水文站	NSE	RE(%)	NSE	RE(%)
1	安康	0.93	2.4	0.83	8.1
2	白河	0.93	-0.3	0.78	-1.9
3	丹江口	0.87	12.1	0.75	14.5
4	皇庄	0.82	-1.4	0.66	7.1
平均绝对值		0.89	4.1	0.76	7.9

时间	2010年	2020年		2030年		2040年		2050年
时间	模拟值 (m³/s)	模拟值 (m³/s)	变化率 (%)	模拟值 (m³/s)	变化率 (%)	模拟值 (m³/s)	变化率 (%)	模拟值 (m³/s)	变化率 (%)
全年	1743	1744	0.06	1745	0.10	1756	0.73	1744	0.07
汛期	2620	2621	0.05	2626	0.24	2656	1.36	2625	0.20
非汛期	866	861	-0.58	863	-0.31	856	-1.16	864	-0.29

情景	模拟值(m³/s)	变化率(%)	情景	模拟值(m³/s)	变化率(%)
S1_RCP 4.5	1829	+4.95	S2_2020	1744	+0.06
S1_RCP 8.5	1786	+2.47	S2_2030	1745	+0.10
S3_RCP 4.5	1832	+5.10	S2_2040	1756	+0.73
S3_RCP 8.5	1790	+2.67	S2_2050	1744	+0.07