资源型城市演化阶段识别及其发展特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202010010

地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (10): 2180-2191.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202010010

资源型城市演化阶段识别及其发展特征

卢硕¹^,²(), 张文忠¹, 余建辉¹, 李佳洺¹()

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,开封 475001

收稿日期:2019-04-15 修回日期:2020-04-10 出版日期:2020-10-25 发布日期:2020-12-25
通讯作者: 李佳洺(1984-), 男, 山西晋城人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事经济地理与区域发展。E-mail: lijm@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:卢硕(1994-), 男, 河南开封人, 硕士生, 主要从事资源型城市发展研究。E-mail: lushuo17@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项(XDA23100302);国家自然科学基金项目(41701128)

The identification of spatial evolution stage of resource-based cities and its development characteristics

LU Shuo¹^,²(), ZHANG Wenzhong¹, YU Jianhui¹, LI Jiaming¹()

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China

Received:2019-04-15 Revised:2020-04-10 Published:2020-10-25 Online:2020-12-25
Supported by:
The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA23100302);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701128)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

资源型城市作为一类特殊城市,发展过程具有明显的阶段性特征。本文以灯光影像等数据为基础,采用门槛面板模型、非参数估计等方法,从城市空间结构演化角度,对资源型城市发展阶段进行定量划分,并分析了不同发展阶段中心城区空间集聚对城市经济增长、城市转型的差异性特征,揭示了资源型产业对城市空间结构演变的作用以及资源型城市转型关键时间节点和政策着力点。结果表明：资源型城市空间相对分散,但不同资源类型城市之间存在较大差异;采掘业从业人员占比1.9%和31.0%可以作为资源型城市不同发展阶段的重要标志性指标;不同发展阶段中,社会经济要素在中心城区的集聚程度与城市经济增长的相关关系明显不同,成熟发展期成为资源型城市转型发展的重要转折期。

关键词: 空间结构, 阶段性特征, 门槛效应, 资源型城市转型

Abstract:

Resource-based cities refer to the cities where the exploiting and processing of natural resources, such as minerals and forests, dominate industrial development. This special type of city is obviously staged during its development. From a new perspective of urban spatial structure, this paper quantitatively splits the development stages of resource-based cities based on the data of night lights images and uses the methods, such as the threshold panel model and non-parametric estimation. To delve into the impacts of resource-based industries on the evolution of urban spatial structure, as well as the timing of transformation policy design, different effects of the spatial agglomeration of central urban areas on urban growth and transformation by development stages are also analyzed in this paper. The results suggest that: the resource-based cities are relatively internally fragmented with noticeable differences among resource types and individuals, such as oil and gas resource type, and ferrous metal resource type. This paper attempts to adopt the proportion of mining employees as the indicator. Some 1.9% and 31.0% can act as the tipping points to divide different development stages of resource-based cities. The resource-based cities are split into four stages of development given two threshold values. In various stages of development, the correlation between the concentration of social and economic factors in the central urban area and the urban economic growth is noticeably different. Furthermore, 'the mature stage' has acted as a critical turning phase in the transformation of resource-based cities.

Key words: spatial structure, phased characteristics, threshold effects, resource-based cities

卢硕, 张文忠, 余建辉, 李佳洺. 资源型城市演化阶段识别及其发展特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(10): 2180-2191.

LU Shuo, ZHANG Wenzhong, YU Jianhui, LI Jiaming. The identification of spatial evolution stage of resource-based cities and its development characteristics[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2180-2191.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

表2

双重门槛估计值及置信区间

门槛值	估计值	95%置信区间
门槛值 $γ 1'$	0.019	[0.015, 0.446]
门槛值 $γ 2'$	0.310	[0.009, 0.333]

表2

表3

双重门槛模型估计结果

变量	系数估计值	标准误差	T值	95%置信区间
$x it I g it < 0.019$	0.652	0.378	1.470	[0.502, 0.716]
$x it I 0.019 ≤ g it < 0.310$	-0.521	0.061	-8.520	[-0.640, -0.401]
$x it I g it ≥ 0.310$	-0.296	0.043	-6.810	[-0.381, -0.211]
_cons	0.397	0.008	48.650	[0.381, 0.413]

表3

表4

双重门槛模型稳健性检验

变量	系数估计值	标准误差	T值	95%置信区间
$x it I g it < 0.018$	1.692	0.381	4.440	[2.440, 0.944]
$x it I 0.018 ≤ g it < 0.390$	-0.531	0.060	-8.910	[-0.647, -0.413]
$x it I g it ≥ 0.390$	-0.268	0.046	-5.840	[-0.358, -0.198]
_cons	0.397	0.008	48.780	[0.381, 0.413]

表4

图3

图4

图5

图6

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门槛检验	临界值
门槛检验	F值	P值	1%	5%	10%
单门槛检验	12.645^*	0.053	19.655	12.909	10.550
双门槛检验	50.551^***	0.000	-0.642	-5.355	-9.233
三重门槛检验	0.000	0.651	0.000	0.000	0.000

资源型城市演化阶段识别及其发展特征

The identification of spatial evolution stage of resource-based cities and its development characteristics

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