基于流量数据的中美两国与东北亚地缘经济关系研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202010004

地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (10): 2076-2091.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202010004

• 地缘环境与“一带一路” • 上一篇下一篇

基于流量数据的中美两国与东北亚地缘经济关系研究

马腾¹^,²(), 葛岳静³^,⁴(), 黄宇⁵, 刘晓凤⁶, 林荣平⁷, 胡志丁²

1.杭州师范大学经济与管理学院,杭州 311121
2.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海 200062
3.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
4.高原科学与可持续发展研究院,西宁 810008
5.中国科学院青藏高原研究所高寒生态重点实验室,北京,100101
6.香港大学地理系,香港 999077
7.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275

收稿日期:2019-01-18 修回日期:2020-04-07 出版日期:2020-10-25 发布日期:2020-12-25
通讯作者: 葛岳静
作者简介:马腾(1990-), 男, 江西人, 讲师/博士后, 研究方向为全球化与地缘环境。E-mail: mateng0119@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41871128);国家自然科学基金项目(41661033);国家自然科学基金项目(41701133);国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA041);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100311)

Geo-economic relations of China and the US in Northeast Asia: An analysis based on flow data

MA Teng¹^,²(), GE Yuejing³^,⁴(), HUANG Yu⁵, LIU Xiaofeng⁶, LIN Rongping⁷, HU Zhiding²

1. School of Economics and Management, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
2. Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China
5. Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100101
6. Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
7. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Received:2019-01-18 Revised:2020-04-07 Online:2020-10-25 Published:2020-12-25
Contact: GE Yuejing
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871128);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41661033);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701133);Major Programme of National Social Science Foundation of China(16ZDA041);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100311)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于全球化和市场经济在全球范围内得到普遍认可,在各类地缘关系中地缘经济关系成为最活跃也是研究最多的一类。本文从中国与东北亚各国地缘经济研究现状入手,基于流量数据建立地缘流势模型来探寻地缘经济复杂关系背后的规律性因素,并通过对比中美两国与东北亚的地缘经济关系分析其驱动机制,得出如下结论：① 2000—2016年中国与东北亚地缘经济联系不断加强,其中贸易联系明显强于投资联系,但投资联系在2012年后得到了飞速的发展。② 中国与东北亚地区的总体经济流势呈现上升态势,其中贸易流势起主导作用,中美地缘经济流势表现最强、增速最快,中国对日、韩两国的地缘经济流势强度不断显现,中俄、中蒙、中朝三股地缘经济流势虽然近年来不断增长但对区域整体地缘经济关系影响有限。③ 中美两国与东北亚的地缘经济流势均呈现出波动上升的趋势,并在国家关系分布上较为一致;两国在地缘经济差异主要体现在两个方面：一是驱动因素不同,中国以贸易关系为主而美国主要依赖投资驱动;二是空间分布差异开始显现,美国与东北亚的地缘经济关系越来越集中于中、日、韩三国,而中国与俄、蒙、朝三国联系开始不断加强。

关键词: 地缘关系, 地缘经济, 地缘经济流势, 流量数据, 东北亚

Abstract:

With the advancement of globalization and market economy, geo-economic relation has increasingly attracted scholars' attentions. Trade data, including import and export flows, has dominated the geo-economy research owing to its availability and representativeness. However, this might incline geo-economy research toward trade studies and disregard the importance of other international economic components, such as investment. Combining investment and trade data in doing geo-economic analysis could provide us with a more comprehensive understanding of economic relations between countries. Taking China, the US and Northeast Asian countries as an example, this paper explores the patterns of geo-economic relations between these countries, inspects the driving forces and formation mechanism of the patterns, and also makes comparison between China and the US. As a typical region with unbalanced politics and economy and greatly influenced by both China and the US, Northeast Asia can be a salient sample for geo-economic research. A geo-economic streaming potential model is proposed to evaluate comprehensive geo-economic relations which take into account both trade and investment. The conclusions are as follows. First, from 2000 to 2016, the geo-economic relations between China and Northeast Asian countries were strengthened, during which trade flow constantly occupied the dominating position. However, since 2012, the proportion of investment in geo-economy has increased rapidly. Second, the geo-economic flows between China and the US were the strongest with the fastest growth. The geo-economic flows between China and Japan, South Korea were increasing, while those between China and Russia, Mongolia and North Korea had limited influence. Third, both China and the US had expanding geo-economic flows with Northeast Asian countries and similar distribution pattern. Two major differences are also noted. One is that driving forces are different with China's geo-economic relations driven by trade flows and those of the US driven by investment. The other difference is that China's connections with Russia, Mongolia and North Korea have been strengthened while the US has been trying to maintain strong geo-economic relations with Japan and South Korea.

Key words: geo-relations, geo-economics, geo-economic streaming potential, flow data, Northeast Asia

马腾, 葛岳静, 黄宇, 刘晓凤, 林荣平, 胡志丁. 基于流量数据的中美两国与东北亚地缘经济关系研究[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(10): 2076-2091.

MA Teng, GE Yuejing, HUANG Yu, LIU Xiaofeng, LIN Rongping, HU Zhiding. Geo-economic relations of China and the US in Northeast Asia: An analysis based on flow data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2076-2091.

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市场开放程度	包含国家	加入WTO时间	赋值
非常开放	美国	1994	5
比较开放	日本	1994	4
比较开放	韩国	1994	4
一般开放	蒙古	1997	3
一般开放	中国	2001	3
比较封闭	俄罗斯	2012	2
非常封闭	朝鲜	未加入	1

年份	GeoT_中日	GeoT_中韩	GeoT_中俄	GeoT_中蒙	GeoT_中美	GeoT_中朝
2004	0.198653	0.063552	0.015417	0.001566	0.259292	0.002868
2005	0.216795	0.075297	0.018969	0.001725	0.330009	0.003151
2006	0.222676	0.086995	0.020029	0.00185	0.403782	0.003137
2007	0.257802	0.123021	0.031677	0.002348	0.484522	0.003482
2008	0.292919	0.177031	0.035691	0.002625	0.520465	0.004249
2009	0.255971	0.136953	0.022546	0.003123	0.482747	0.004485
2010	0.325962	0.18804	0.033208	0.003555	0.644983	0.004821
2011	0.387919	0.218801	0.041927	0.004724	0.721979	0.005548
2012	0.375531	0.224483	0.045527	0.004349	0.774254	0.005599
2013	0.285369	0.23043	0.043764	0.004035	0.6051	0.00555
2014	0.284758	0.257787	0.049055	0.003884	0.663472	0.00553
2015	0.323001	0.352887	0.041384	0.003476	0.773953	0.005819
2016	0.49729	0.387959	0.061649	0.009182	0.922725	0.011615

年份	GeoI_中日	GeoI_中韩	GeoI_中俄	GeoI_中蒙	GeoI_中美	GeoI_中朝
2004	0.158649	0.178929	0.087951	0.145102	0.134625	0.043586
2005	0.173257	0.179049	0.088566	0.145273	0.148514	0.043241
2006	0.171622	0.17793	0.089425	0.145847	0.149631	0.04444
2007	0.171806	0.178687	0.098073	0.146703	0.151387	0.046355
2008	0.179543	0.176713	0.098917	0.147642	0.153293	0.048775
2009	0.180754	0.195692	0.099659	0.148709	0.16881	0.049762
2010	0.182322	0.193295	0.1078	0.149303	0.174384	0.05216
2011	0.194361	0.278586	0.109854	0.150678	0.186676	0.059351
2012	0.19652	0.381083	0.112196	0.158648	0.222806	0.060461
2013	0.202185	0.372649	0.154419	0.165132	0.249994	0.064399
2014	0.201621	0.381019	0.162381	0.166427	0.295461	0.068422
2015	0.201315	0.388224	0.182308	0.203822	0.302189	0.070722
2016	0.201764	0.394079	0.179638	0.204127	0.352566	0.072224

年份	GeoE_中日	GeoE_中韩	GeoE_中俄	GeoE_中蒙	GeoE_中美	GeoE_中朝
2004	0.031516	0.011371	0.001356	0.000227	0.034907	0.000125
2005	0.037561	0.013482	0.00168	0.000251	0.049011	0.000136
2006	0.038216	0.015479	0.001791	0.00027	0.060418	0.000139
2007	0.044292	0.021982	0.003107	0.000344	0.07335	0.000161
2008	0.052592	0.031284	0.00353	0.000387	0.079784	0.000207
2009	0.046268	0.026801	0.002247	0.000464	0.081492	0.000223
2010	0.05943	0.036347	0.00358	0.000531	0.112475	0.000251
2011	0.075396	0.060955	0.004606	0.000712	0.134776	0.000329
2012	0.0738	0.085547	0.005108	0.00069	0.172508	0.000339
2013	0.057697	0.085869	0.006758	0.000666	0.151271	0.000357
2014	0.057413	0.098222	0.007966	0.000646	0.19603	0.000378
2015	0.065025	0.136999	0.007545	0.000709	0.233881	0.000412
2016	0.100335	0.152886	0.011075	0.001874	0.325321	0.000839

基于流量数据的中美两国与东北亚地缘经济关系研究

Geo-economic relations of China and the US in Northeast Asia: An analysis based on flow data

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