地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (10): 2076-2091.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202010004
马腾1,2(), 葛岳静3,4(
), 黄宇5, 刘晓凤6, 林荣平7, 胡志丁2
收稿日期:
2019-01-18
修回日期:
2020-04-07
出版日期:
2020-10-25
发布日期:
2020-12-25
通讯作者:
葛岳静
作者简介:
马腾(1990-), 男, 江西人, 讲师/博士后, 研究方向为全球化与地缘环境。E-mail: 基金资助:
MA Teng1,2(), GE Yuejing3,4(
), HUANG Yu5, LIU Xiaofeng6, LIN Rongping7, HU Zhiding2
Received:
2019-01-18
Revised:
2020-04-07
Online:
2020-10-25
Published:
2020-12-25
Contact:
GE Yuejing
Supported by:
摘要:
由于全球化和市场经济在全球范围内得到普遍认可,在各类地缘关系中地缘经济关系成为最活跃也是研究最多的一类。本文从中国与东北亚各国地缘经济研究现状入手,基于流量数据建立地缘流势模型来探寻地缘经济复杂关系背后的规律性因素,并通过对比中美两国与东北亚的地缘经济关系分析其驱动机制,得出如下结论:① 2000—2016年中国与东北亚地缘经济联系不断加强,其中贸易联系明显强于投资联系,但投资联系在2012年后得到了飞速的发展。② 中国与东北亚地区的总体经济流势呈现上升态势,其中贸易流势起主导作用,中美地缘经济流势表现最强、增速最快,中国对日、韩两国的地缘经济流势强度不断显现,中俄、中蒙、中朝三股地缘经济流势虽然近年来不断增长但对区域整体地缘经济关系影响有限。③ 中美两国与东北亚的地缘经济流势均呈现出波动上升的趋势,并在国家关系分布上较为一致;两国在地缘经济差异主要体现在两个方面:一是驱动因素不同,中国以贸易关系为主而美国主要依赖投资驱动;二是空间分布差异开始显现,美国与东北亚的地缘经济关系越来越集中于中、日、韩三国,而中国与俄、蒙、朝三国联系开始不断加强。
马腾, 葛岳静, 黄宇, 刘晓凤, 林荣平, 胡志丁. 基于流量数据的中美两国与东北亚地缘经济关系研究[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(10): 2076-2091.
MA Teng, GE Yuejing, HUANG Yu, LIU Xiaofeng, LIN Rongping, HU Zhiding. Geo-economic relations of China and the US in Northeast Asia: An analysis based on flow data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2076-2091.
表2
2004—2016年中国与东北亚各国贸易流势结果"
年份 | GeoT中日 | GeoT中韩 | GeoT中俄 | GeoT中蒙 | GeoT中美 | GeoT中朝 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 0.198653 | 0.063552 | 0.015417 | 0.001566 | 0.259292 | 0.002868 |
2005 | 0.216795 | 0.075297 | 0.018969 | 0.001725 | 0.330009 | 0.003151 |
2006 | 0.222676 | 0.086995 | 0.020029 | 0.00185 | 0.403782 | 0.003137 |
2007 | 0.257802 | 0.123021 | 0.031677 | 0.002348 | 0.484522 | 0.003482 |
2008 | 0.292919 | 0.177031 | 0.035691 | 0.002625 | 0.520465 | 0.004249 |
2009 | 0.255971 | 0.136953 | 0.022546 | 0.003123 | 0.482747 | 0.004485 |
2010 | 0.325962 | 0.18804 | 0.033208 | 0.003555 | 0.644983 | 0.004821 |
2011 | 0.387919 | 0.218801 | 0.041927 | 0.004724 | 0.721979 | 0.005548 |
2012 | 0.375531 | 0.224483 | 0.045527 | 0.004349 | 0.774254 | 0.005599 |
2013 | 0.285369 | 0.23043 | 0.043764 | 0.004035 | 0.6051 | 0.00555 |
2014 | 0.284758 | 0.257787 | 0.049055 | 0.003884 | 0.663472 | 0.00553 |
2015 | 0.323001 | 0.352887 | 0.041384 | 0.003476 | 0.773953 | 0.005819 |
2016 | 0.49729 | 0.387959 | 0.061649 | 0.009182 | 0.922725 | 0.011615 |
表3
2004—2016年中国与东北亚各国投资流势结果"
年份 | GeoI中日 | GeoI中韩 | GeoI中俄 | GeoI中蒙 | GeoI中美 | GeoI中朝 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 0.158649 | 0.178929 | 0.087951 | 0.145102 | 0.134625 | 0.043586 |
2005 | 0.173257 | 0.179049 | 0.088566 | 0.145273 | 0.148514 | 0.043241 |
2006 | 0.171622 | 0.17793 | 0.089425 | 0.145847 | 0.149631 | 0.04444 |
2007 | 0.171806 | 0.178687 | 0.098073 | 0.146703 | 0.151387 | 0.046355 |
2008 | 0.179543 | 0.176713 | 0.098917 | 0.147642 | 0.153293 | 0.048775 |
2009 | 0.180754 | 0.195692 | 0.099659 | 0.148709 | 0.16881 | 0.049762 |
2010 | 0.182322 | 0.193295 | 0.1078 | 0.149303 | 0.174384 | 0.05216 |
2011 | 0.194361 | 0.278586 | 0.109854 | 0.150678 | 0.186676 | 0.059351 |
2012 | 0.19652 | 0.381083 | 0.112196 | 0.158648 | 0.222806 | 0.060461 |
2013 | 0.202185 | 0.372649 | 0.154419 | 0.165132 | 0.249994 | 0.064399 |
2014 | 0.201621 | 0.381019 | 0.162381 | 0.166427 | 0.295461 | 0.068422 |
2015 | 0.201315 | 0.388224 | 0.182308 | 0.203822 | 0.302189 | 0.070722 |
2016 | 0.201764 | 0.394079 | 0.179638 | 0.204127 | 0.352566 | 0.072224 |
表4
2004—2016年中国与东北亚各国地缘经济流势测算结果"
年份 | GeoE中日 | GeoE中韩 | GeoE中俄 | GeoE中蒙 | GeoE中美 | GeoE中朝 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 0.031516 | 0.011371 | 0.001356 | 0.000227 | 0.034907 | 0.000125 |
2005 | 0.037561 | 0.013482 | 0.00168 | 0.000251 | 0.049011 | 0.000136 |
2006 | 0.038216 | 0.015479 | 0.001791 | 0.00027 | 0.060418 | 0.000139 |
2007 | 0.044292 | 0.021982 | 0.003107 | 0.000344 | 0.07335 | 0.000161 |
2008 | 0.052592 | 0.031284 | 0.00353 | 0.000387 | 0.079784 | 0.000207 |
2009 | 0.046268 | 0.026801 | 0.002247 | 0.000464 | 0.081492 | 0.000223 |
2010 | 0.05943 | 0.036347 | 0.00358 | 0.000531 | 0.112475 | 0.000251 |
2011 | 0.075396 | 0.060955 | 0.004606 | 0.000712 | 0.134776 | 0.000329 |
2012 | 0.0738 | 0.085547 | 0.005108 | 0.00069 | 0.172508 | 0.000339 |
2013 | 0.057697 | 0.085869 | 0.006758 | 0.000666 | 0.151271 | 0.000357 |
2014 | 0.057413 | 0.098222 | 0.007966 | 0.000646 | 0.19603 | 0.000378 |
2015 | 0.065025 | 0.136999 | 0.007545 | 0.000709 | 0.233881 | 0.000412 |
2016 | 0.100335 | 0.152886 | 0.011075 | 0.001874 | 0.325321 | 0.000839 |
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