横断山区水土资源利用与经济增长的匹配关系

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水土资源不仅是山区生态系统服务供给的一部分,同时也是山区经济发展的重要投入要素。本文以横断山区为研究对象,利用基尼系数法评估水土资源和经济发展之间的匹配状况,同时基于个体随机效应模型建立拓展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型实现了经济增长对水土要素的敏感性分析,引入经济增长阻尼模型定量测算了水土资源对横断山区经济发展的制约程度。结果表明：① 2006—2015年横断山区水资源、土地资源与GDP的区域基尼系数波动范围分别为0.260~0.298和0.389~0.424,水资源对不同产业的满足程度相对合理,而对土地资源的利用与经济发展较不匹配,尤其是第二、三产业;② 敏感性分析结果表明,横断山区土地资源的产出弹性是水资源2倍左右,土地资源的累计贡献率明显高于水资源,土地资源要素对经济增长贡献大于水资源要素。③ 水土资源增长阻尼平均水平分别为0.012和0.022,说明水资源和土地资源对横断山区经济发展均产生明显的约束作用,且受土地资源的限制较大。研究表明中国山区发展需要更加重视水土资源开发利用与经济增长需求的匹配,充分挖掘水土资源的利用潜力提高供给可以降低其对经济增长的制约程度。

关键词: 水土资源, 基尼系数, 增长阻尼, 面板模型, 横断山区

Abstract:

As a part of the supply of ecosystem services, land and water resources are an important factor restricting economic development in mountainous areas. Taking the Hengduan Mountains Area as a case study, we evaluated the degree of matching between land and water resources and economic development using the Gini coefficient method. Furthermore, the sensitivity of economic growth to land-water factors was analyzed by establishing an extended Cobb-Douglas function based on the individual stochastic effect model. In addition, the growth drag model was introduced to measure the restriction of land-water resources on economic development in the study area quantitatively. The research produced several important results: (1) From 2006 to 2015, the fluctuation ranges of the Gini coefficient between land and water resources and gross domestic product (GDP) in the study area were 0.265-0.298 and 0.389-0.424, respectively. The satisfaction by water resources in different industries was relatively reasonable, but the utilization of land resources for economic development was not satisfactory, especially in the secondary and tertiary industries. (2) The sensitivity analysis results showed that the elasticity of land resources in the region was about twice that of water resources. The cumulative contribution rate of land resources was significantly higher than that of water resources, and the contribution of land resources to economic growth was greater than that of water resources. (3) The average growth drag values of land and water resources were 0.012 and 0.022, respectively, indicating that both land and water resources had obvious restraining effects on the economic development, which was greatly restricted by land resources. The research showed that effective development of mountainous areas in China should focus on the sufficient land-water resources demanded by economic growth. Utilizing the potential of land-water resources and increasing their supply can reduce restriction on economic growth and promote sustainable development.

Key words: land and water resources, Gini coefficient, growth drag, panel data model, Hengduan Mountains Area

彭立, 邓伟, 谭静, 林磊. 横断山区水土资源利用与经济增长的匹配关系[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1996-2008.

PENG Li, DENG Wei, TAN Jing, LIN Lei. Restriction of economic development in the Hengduan Mountains Area by land and water resources[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1996-2008.

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变量	系数	z值	个体效应检验
lnK	0.226^**	5.89	固定效应VS随机效应卡方值9.42 Prob > chi2 = 0.0935
lnL	0.485^**	2.89
lnT	0.193^**	3.15
lnS	0.112	0.65