基于景观生态学的城市化背景下洪灾风险评估

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以秦淮河流域为例,构建HEC-HMS模型,采用统计学分析方法,在两期历史景观分布情况下,研究洪水特征值（洪量、洪峰）与不同景观的景观格局指数间的响应关系,提出并构建基于景观格局的洪水生态风险（洪水—景观生态风险）指数,结合空间分析方法,进行全流域风险的时空变化分析和特征子流域间的对比分析。结果表明：不同类型景观的景观格局与洪水特征值间均具有一定程度的响应关系,景观类型不同,其响应指标与程度不同;2003—2017年,研究区风险程度有所增加,空间差异明显;景观格局对区域洪水影响显著,避免景观的大面积聚集发展,增加各类景观周边的景观丰富度,提高景观间的接触面积,有助于减弱城市化进程中建设用地景观面积增加带来的洪水危害,发挥景观的生态正效应。

关键词: 景观格局, Spearman秩相关性分析, 多元线性回归分析, HEC-HMS水文模型, 克里格插值, 洪水—景观生态风险指数;

Abstract:

This paper used HEC-HMS hydrological model and statistical analysis method to examine the relationship between flood eigenvalues (i.e. flood volume, peak flow) and landscape pattern indexes of different landscapes. And on the basis of the above relationships, this paper constructed a flood ecological risk index to quantitatively calculate the basin's flood-landscape ecological risk. Then, the spatio-temporal risk change analysis of the whole basin and comparative risk analysis between selected sub-basins were performed. The Qinhuai River basin was selected as the study area, and two historical landscape distributions (2003 and 2017) were used in this study. The results showed that, for different landscapes, there are certain relationships between landscape patterns and flood eigenvalues, for different landscapes, the response indexes and degrees are different. From 2003 to 2017, the flood-landscape ecological risk increased and showed significant spatial differences. Landscape patterns have significant impacts on regional floods. In urbanization process, avoiding forming large-scale landscape patches, increasing landscape abundance of landscapes, and increasing contact area between different types of landscape patches can be helpful to reduce the negative effects of the increase of urban landscape area on flood.

Key words: landscape pattern, Spearman rank correlation analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, HEC-HMS hydrological model, kriging interpolation, flood-landscape ecological risk index

袁玉, 方国华, 陆承璇, 颜敏. 基于景观生态学的城市化背景下洪灾风险评估[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1921-1933.

YUAN Yu, FANG Guohua, LU Chengxuan, YAN Min. Flood risk assessment under the background of urbanization based on landscape ecology[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1921-1933.

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数据类型	时间(年份)	精度	来源
降雨	1986—2016	1 d	资源环境数据云平台(http://www.resdc.cn), 南京气象局
流量	1986—2016	1 d
太阳辐射、气温	1986—2016	1 d
土壤	2009	1 km	世界和谐土壤数据库HWSD 1.1
数字高程	2009	30 m	中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台(http://www.gscloud.cn)
遥感影像	1988, 1994, 1999, 2003, 2010, 2017	30 m	中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台(http://www.gscloud.cn)

	洪号	景观分布年份	R	NSE	D_v(%)	D_p(%)
率定期	19870630	1988	0.96	0.91	3.53	-9.23
	19930618	1994	0.94	0.86	25.44	0.39
	20030626	2003	0.98	0.87	22.88	12.84
	20080615	2010	0.99	0.99	7.66	3.85
验证期	19870819	1988	0.95	0.81	18.27	13.64
	19910629	1988	0.83	0.80	-3.81	20.21
	19960623	1994	0.99	0.89	29.32	2.60
	19990622	1999	0.95	0.82	29.25	7.87
	20020618	2003	0.98	0.96	-0.29	-6.95
	20060718	2003	0.98	0.89	21.11	19.50
	20150712	2017	0.95	0.88	0.77	-7.36