基于信息扩散和混沌理论的西安市玉米生育期旱涝特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究区域旱涝特征以及对作物产量影响,在对比标准化降水蒸散指数和降水温度均一化指标的基础上,利用信息扩散和混沌时间序列分析技术,探讨作物各生育阶段的旱涝演化规律,以及不同生育阶段发生旱涝对产量的影响。以西安市为典型区域,将玉米作为研究对象,根据1951—2015年气象资料和玉米单产等数据,利用该文提出的方法进行分析。研究结果表明：① 西安市玉米各生育阶段的旱涝随时间变化的趋势呈现波峰、波谷交替起伏形式,表现出一定的周期性。2008年后各生育阶段均表现出向相对丰水方向发展的趋势。② 西安市玉米各生育阶段大多数处于正常状态,频率大约为45%。出苗—拔节阶段发生重旱的比例最大,达4.62%。拔节—抽雄阶段发生中涝（含）以上程度的频率最大,达15.39%。③ 玉米各生育阶段的旱涝时间序列的最大李雅普诺夫指数均大于0,各时间序列呈现一定程度的混沌特性。④ 拔节—抽雄阶段相对于其他生育阶段,产量和旱涝相关关系较明显,一定程度上反映出该阶段对水分的敏感性。

关键词: 旱涝, 作物, 气象, 混沌, 信息扩散, 李雅普诺夫指数

Abstract:

In order to study the characteristics of regional drought and flood and its impact on crop yield, this paper discusses the evolution law of drought and flood in each growth stage of crop and the impact of drought and flood in different growth stages on crop yield using the technology of information diffusion and chaotic time series analysis based on the comparison of SPEI and precipitation temperature homogenization index. With Xi'an as a typical region and corn as the research object, we analyzed the meteorological data and corn yield data from 1951 to 2015. The results show that: firstly, the trend of drought and flood in each growth stage of corn in Xi'an with time shows the form of wave crest and wavetrough alternately and a certain periodicity. Each growth stage of corn shows a trend of relative abundant water after 2008. Secondly, most of the growth stages of corn are in normal state, and the frequency is about 45%. The frequency maximum of severe drought is 4.62%, which occurred in emergence-jointing, and the frequency maximum of above moderate wetness is 15.39%, which occurred in the jointing-tasselling phase. Thirdly, the largest Lyapunov exponents of all growth phases are greater than 0. Time series of drought and flood indicate chaotic feature to a certain extent. Finally, the jointing-tasselling stage is compared with other growth stages, and the correlation between yield and drought and flood is obvious, which reflects the sensitivity of this stage to water to some extent. This research is of guiding implications to disaster prevention and yield reduction of corn in Xi'an city.

Key words: drought and flood, crops, meteorology, chaos, information diffusion, Lyapunov exponent

陈海涛, 邱林, 王文川, 陈晓楠, 段春青. 基于信息扩散和混沌理论的西安市玉米生育期旱涝特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1893-1906.

CHEN Haitao, QIU Lin, WANG Wenchuan, CHEN Xiaonan, DUAN Chunqing. Characteristics analysis of drought and flood for corn in Xi'an city based on information diffusion and chaos theory[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1893-1906.

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旱涝等级	全生育期	播种—出苗	出苗—拔节	拔节—抽雄	抽雄—成熟
重涝	3.85	6.15	4.62	3.08	1.54
中涝	8.08	6.15	4.62	12.31	9.23
轻涝	15.38	12.31	20.00	9.23	20.00
正常	44.62	47.69	43.08	46.15	41.54
轻旱	15.77	15.38	15.38	16.92	15.38
中旱	10.77	12.31	7.69	12.31	10.77
重旱	1.54	0.00	4.62	0.00	1.54