地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (9): 1845-1859.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202009003
李哲1,2(), 丁永建3(
), 陈艾姣1,2, 张智华1,2, 张世强1,2
收稿日期:
2019-09-06
修回日期:
2020-06-30
出版日期:
2020-09-25
发布日期:
2020-11-25
作者简介:
李哲(1996-), 女, 陕西汉中人, 硕士生, 主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
LI Zhe1,2(), DING Yongjian3(
), CHEN Aijiao1,2, ZHANG Zhihua1,2, ZHANG Shiqiang1,2
Received:
2019-09-06
Revised:
2020-06-30
Published:
2020-09-25
Online:
2020-11-25
Supported by:
摘要:
1998—2012年全球地表平均温度发生变暖停滞(Hiatus),然而Hiatus现象是否在全球各地均存在尚有争议,其在西北地区的表现及特征缺乏深入研究。本文基于1960—2019年气温地面观测数据,利用累积距平曲线、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动t检验及Yamamoto检验进行气候突变分析,结合线性倾向估计进行气候变化趋势分析,对西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及其特征进行了探讨。结果表明:① 西北地区年均气温在1986年、1996年和2012年分别突变,1996年突变升温后在1998—2012年间保持高位震荡;② 1998—2012年间西北地区年均温变化率为-0.20 ℃/10a,呈现明显Hiatus现象,分季节看,冬季降温幅度最大,夏季仍保持升温,春季均温比秋、冬季提前1年开始和结束停滞期,从空间上看,西北地区东南部降温最显著,青藏高原不存在Hiatus;③ 2012年Hiatus结束后西北地区气温普遍快速升高,季节上以冬季升温最快,空间上以南疆升温最快。综合来看,1998—2012年的Hiatus现象在除青藏高原外的西北地区表现明显,停滞后的快速升温值得高度关注。
李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
LI Zhe, DING Yongjian, CHEN Aijiao, ZHANG Zhihua, ZHANG Shiqiang. Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
表2
西北地区气温突变年份分析
累积距平曲线 | M-K检验 | 滑动t检验 | Yamamoto检验 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
全区 | 年均温 | 1996 | 2001** | 1966*, 1986**, 1996**, 2012* | 1966**, 1986**, 1996**, 2012* |
春季 | 1996 | 2004** | 1974*, 1996** | 1974**, 1996** | |
夏季 | 1996 | 2000** | 1996** | 1996** | |
秋季 | 1997 | 1997** | 1965*, 1987**, 1997** | 1965**, 1987* | |
冬季 | 1986, 1997 | 1996** | 1986**, 1997** | 1986*, 1997** | |
一区 | 1996 | 1994** | 1988**, 1996** | 1988**, 1996* | |
二区 | 1996 | 1997** | 1996**, 2014* | 1996**, 2014* | |
三区 | 1997 | 1997** | 1986**, 1997** | 1986**, 1997** | |
四区 | 1996 | 1992** | 1966**, 1986**, 1996**, 2012** | 1966**, 1986*, 1996**, 2012** | |
五区 | 1996 | 1995** | 1986**, 1996**, 2012* | 1986*, 1996**, 2012** | |
六区 | 1996 | 1997** | 1986**, 1996**, 2012** | 1996*, 2012** |
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