青藏高原城镇化与生态环境交互影响关系分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb202007005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学评估青藏高原城镇化与生态环境交互影响的总体状况,对优化城镇化速度和质量,修复和提升生态环境状态具有重要意义。在梳理青藏高原城镇化与生态环境交互影响研究进展基础上,本文尝试构建一套完整的城镇化与生态环境交互影响分析模型体系,实现从综合评价指数分析、耦合协调度量化、耦合类型识别、解耦路径探索到未来趋势预测的全过程解析。以青藏高原及其省域、地级单元多尺度分析对比为手段,尝试厘清尺度之间的差异性,识别出问题区域,并提出针对性的改进措施。研究发现,青藏高原不同尺度间城镇化综合评价指数呈阶段性上升趋势,青海的整体城镇化指数高于西藏;生态环境指数变化趋势不同,青海呈下降态势,西藏则趋向平稳,各地级单元生态环境指数存在分层现象。青藏高原不同尺度城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,协调类型由失调衰退类向濒临失调衰退类转变,最后转为勉强协调发展类,基本属于城镇化滞后型。城镇化指数与生态环境指数呈现出强脱钩、弱脱钩交互出现的波动态势,说明不同尺度间存在城镇化与生态环境的负相互作用,消极城镇化现象突出。通过预测,青藏高原各地级单元在未来10年内,系统耦合协调度将稳步上升,但各地增长速度将存在显著差距。

关键词: 城镇化, 生态环境, 耦合协调度, 解耦, 预测, 青藏高原

Abstract:

Scientifically assessing the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in the Tibetan Plateau is critical for optimization of urbanization speed and quality, and for the restoration and improvement of the eco-environment. Based on previous studies about the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in the Tibetan Plateau, we established complete analysis models to examine the overall process, including comprehensive evaluation index analysis, coupling coordination degree measurement, coupling type identification, decoupling path exploration, and future trend prediction. We used a multi-scale comparison analysis method to clarify the differences between scales (across the Tibetan Plateau and its provinces and prefecture-level cities), identify the problem regions, and propose customized improvement measures. Here we show that the comprehensive evaluation index of urbanization has experienced a staged upward trend in different scales, and the overall urbanization index of Qinghai is higher than that of Tibet. However, the changing trends of the eco-environment index are different. The changes in eco-environment index of Qinghai show a decreasing trend, whereas Tibet's changes tend to be stable. The eco-environment index of prefecture-level cities is stratified. We also found that the changing trends of coupling coordination degree of urbanization and eco-environment in different scales were overall rising. The coupling type has changed from imbalanced recession type to nearly imbalanced recession type, and finally to grudgingly coordinated development type. However, most of these types are lagged urbanization types. The alternate change trend between strong decoupling and weak decoupling indicates a negative interaction between urbanization and the eco-environment at different scales. Thus, it can be inferred that the lagged urbanization is a prominent phenomenon. The result of predication shows that in the next 10 years the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and eco-environment will increase steadily in all geographic units, but there will be a gap in the growth rate.

Key words: urbanization, eco-environment, coupling coordinated degree, decoupling, predicting, Tibetan Plateau

冯雨雪, 李广东. 青藏高原城镇化与生态环境交互影响关系分析[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1386-1405.

FENG Yuxue, LI Guangdong. Interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Tibetan Plateau[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1386-1405.

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	熵值法权重	层次分析法权重	综合权重	指标层	熵值法权重	层次分析法权重	综合权重
人口城镇化	0.1991	0.1238	0.1582	城镇人口密度(人/km²)	0.5461	0.3333	0.4130
人口城镇化	0.1991	0.1238	0.1582	城镇人口占比(%)	0.5518	0.6667	0.5870
经济城镇化	0.4027	0.3875	0.3981	人均地区生产总值(万元)	0.2689	0.4704	0.3558
				第二、三产值占GDP比重(%)	0.2725	0.2797	0.2762
				财政收入占地区生产总值比重(%)	0.2721	0.1142	0.1764
				全社会固定资产投资总额(万元)	0.2699	0.1358	0.1916
空间城镇化	0.1050	0.1011	0.1038	每万人城市建成区面积(km²)	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
社会城镇化	0.2996	0.3875	0.3398	城镇居民人均可支配收入(元)	0.3695	0.5499	0.4369
				每万人拥有卫生机构数量(个)	0.3797	0.2098	0.2735
				社会消费品零售总额(万元)	0.3719	0.2402	0.2896

准则层	熵值法权重	层次分析法权重	综合权重	指标层	熵值法权重	层次分析法权重	综合权重
生态系统结构	0.3709	0.3145	0.3464	草地覆盖率(%)(+)	0.2182	0.2234	0.2209
				湿地占比(%)(+)	0.2019	0.1829	0.1923
				森林覆盖率(%)(+)	0.1677	0.1688	0.1684
				冰川占比(%)(+)	0.1968	0.1829	0.1898
				植被覆盖指数(+)	0.2155	0.2420	0.2285
生态环境功能	0.1480	0.2845	0.2081	生态空间占比(%)(+)	0.5412	0.4013	0.4707
生态环境功能	0.1480	0.2845	0.2081	生态系统服务价值(元)(+)	0.4588	0.5987	0.5293
生态环境压力	0.2470	0.2005	0.2257	PM_2.5平均浓度(μg)(-)	0.3317	0.2702	0.3001
				CO₂排放量(万t)(-)	0.3339	0.3528	0.3440
				生物栖息地侵占量(hm²)(-)	0.3345	0.3771	0.3560
生态环境格局	0.2341	0.2005	0.2197	景观破碎度(-)	0.3446	0.3548	0.3502
				景观连通性(+)	0.3166	0.3548	0.3356
				景观多样性(+)	0.3388	0.2905	0.3142

大类	协调发展度	亚类	F(x)与G(y)对比关系	基本类型
协调发展类	0.60~1.00	协调发展类(Ⅳ)	F(x)-G(y) > 0.1	协调发展类生态环境滞后型(Ⅳ-1)
			\|F(x)-G(y)\| ≤ 0.1	协调发展类城镇化生态环境同步型(Ⅳ-2)
			G(y)-F(x) > 0.1	协调发展城镇化滞后型(Ⅳ-3）
过渡类	0.50~0.59	勉强协调发展类(Ⅲ)	F(x)-G(y) > 0.1	勉强协调发展类生态环境滞后型(Ⅲ-1)
			\|F(x)-G(y)\| ≤ 0.1	勉强协调发展类城镇化生态环境同步型(Ⅲ-2)
			G(y)-F(x) > 0.1	勉强协调发展类城镇化滞后型(Ⅲ-3)
	0.40~0.49	濒临失调衰退类(Ⅱ)	F(x)-G(y) > 0.1	濒临失调衰退类生态环境滞后型(Ⅱ-1)
			\|F(x)-G(y)\| ≤ 0.1	濒临失调衰退类城镇化生态环境共损型(Ⅱ-2)
			G(y)-F(x) > 0.1	濒临失调衰退类城镇化滞后型(Ⅱ-3)
失调类	0.00~0.39	失调衰退类(Ⅰ)	F(x)-G(y) > 0.1	失调衰退类生态环境滞后型(Ⅰ-1)
			\|F(x)-G(y)\| ≤ 0.1	失调衰退类城镇化生态环境共损型(Ⅰ-2)
			G(y)-F(x) > 0.1	失调衰退类城镇化滞后型(Ⅰ-3)

状态		生态环境指数增长率	城镇化指数增长率	脱钩指数DI
脱钩	衰退脱钩	-	-	DI ≥ 1.2
	强脱钩	-	+	DI < 0
	弱脱钩	+	+	0 ≤ DI < 0.8
连接	扩张连接	+	+	0.8 ≤ DI < 1.2
连接	衰退连接	-	-	0.8 ≤ DI < 1.2
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	+	+	DI ≥ 1.2
	强负脱钩	+	-	DI < 0
	弱负脱钩	-	-	0 ≤ DI < 0.8

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
青藏高原	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3
青海省	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3
西藏自治区	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅱ-3	Ⅲ-3
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
青藏高原	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅳ-3	Ⅳ-3	Ⅳ-2	Ⅳ-2
青海省	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅳ-2	Ⅳ-2	Ⅳ-2	Ⅳ-2	Ⅳ-1	Ⅳ-1
西藏自治区	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅲ-3	Ⅳ-3	Ⅳ-3	Ⅳ-3	Ⅳ-3