1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb202005006

地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (5): 961-974.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202005006

• 土地覆被变化与生态系统服务 • 上一篇下一篇

1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响

金凯^1,², 王飞^1,^3,⁴(), 韩剑桥^1,³, 史尚渝^3,⁵, 丁文斌¹

1.西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,杨凌 712100
2.青岛农业大学资源与环境学院,青岛 266109
3.中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,杨凌 712100
4.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
5.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101

收稿日期:2019-09-18 修回日期:2020-03-03 出版日期:2020-05-25 发布日期:2020-07-25
作者简介:金凯(1988-), 男, 山东平邑人, 博士, 讲师, 主要从事土地利用/覆被变化及其生态效应研究。E-mail: jinkai- 2014@outlook.com; jinkai@qau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0501707);中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(16146KYSB20150001);国家自然科学基金项目(41771558)

Contribution of climatic change and human activities to vegetation NDVI change over China during 1982-2015

JIN Kai^1,², WANG Fei^1,^3,⁴(), HAN Jianqiao^1,³, SHI Shangyu^3,⁵, DING Wenbin¹

1.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
2.College of Resources and Environment, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, Shandong, China
3.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
5.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2019-09-18 Revised:2020-03-03 Published:2020-05-25 Online:2020-07-25
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program of China(2016YFC0501707);External Cooperation Program of BIC, Chinese Academy of Sciences(16146KYSB20150001);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771558)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于中国603个气象站的地表气温和降水观测资料以及GIMMS NDVI3g数据,采用变化趋势分析和多元回归残差分析等方法研究了1982—2015年中国植被NDVI变化特征及其主要驱动因素（即气候变化和人类活动）的相应贡献。结果表明：① 1982—2015年中国植被恢复明显,在选择的32个省级行政区中,山西、陕西和重庆的生长季NDVI增加最快,仅上海生长季NDVI呈减小趋势。② 气候变化和人类活动的共同作用是中国植被NDVI呈现整体快速增加和巨大空间差异的主要原因,其中气候变化对各省生长季NDVI变化的影响在-0.01×10 ^-3~1.05×10 ^-3 a ^-1之间,而人类活动的影响在-0.32×10 ^-3~1.77×10 ^-3 a ^-1之间。③ 气候变化和人类活动分别对中国近34年来植被NDVI的增加贡献了40%和60%;人类活动贡献率超过80%的区域主要集中在黄土高原中部、华北平原以及中国东北和西南等地;人类活动贡献率大于50%的省份有22个,其中贡献率最大的3个地区为上海、黑龙江和云南。研究结果建议应更加重视人类活动在植被恢复中的作用。

关键词: 植被变化, 气候变化, 人类活动, NDVI, 残差分析, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the observed daily temperature and precipitation of the land surface of 603 meteorological stations in China, the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 3rd generation dataset, the changing patterns of NDVI in China during 1982-2015 were investigated and the corresponding contributions of the main driving forces, climatic change and human activities, to these changes were distinguished using the methods of trend analysis and multiple regression residuals analysis. The results showed that vegetation recovered in whole China in research period significantly. Shanghai was the single case with a decrease in growing season NDVI in the selected 32 provincial-level administrative regions, while the growing season NDVI in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Chongqing increased much faster compared with other regions. The climatic change and human activities drove the NDVI change jointly as main forces in China and induced both a rapid increasing trend on the whole and a huge spatial difference. The impacts of climatic change on NDVI change in the growing-season ranged from -0.01×10 ^-3 a ^-1 to 1.05×10 ^-3 a ^-1, while the impacts of human activities changed from -0.32×10 ^-3 a ^-1 to 1.77×10 ^-3 a ^-1. The contributions of climatic change and human activities accounted for 40% and 60%, respectively, to the increase of NDVI in China in the past 34 years. The regions where the contribution rates of human activities were more than 80% were mainly distributed in the central part of the Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the northeast and the southwest of China. There were 22 provincial-level regions where the contributions of human activities were more than 50%, and the shares of contribution induced by human activities in Shanghai, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan were much greater than those of any other regions. The results suggest that we should focus more on the role of human activities in vegetation restoration in the whole country.

Key words: vegetation variation, climatic change, human activities, NDVI, residuals analysis, China

金凯, 王飞, 韩剑桥, 史尚渝, 丁文斌. 1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 961-974.

JIN Kai, WANG Fei, HAN Jianqiao, SHI Shangyu, DING Wenbin. Contribution of climatic change and human activities to vegetation NDVI change over China during 1982-2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(5): 961-974.

图/表 10

图1

表1

表2

植被NDVI变化的驱动因素判定标准及贡献率计算方法

slope(NDVI_obs)^a	驱动因素	驱动因素的划分标准		驱动因素的贡献率(%)
slope(NDVI_obs)^a	驱动因素	slope(NDVI_CC)^b	slope(NDVI_HA)^c	气候变化	人类活动
> 0	CC & HA	> 0	> 0	$slope (NDV I CC) slope (NDV I obs)$	$slope (NDV I HA) slope (NDV I obs)$
	CC	> 0	< 0	100	0
	HA	< 0	> 0	0	100
< 0	CC & HA	< 0	< 0	$slope (NDV I CC) slope (NDV I obs)$	$slope (NDV I HA) slope (NDV I obs)$
	CC	< 0	> 0	100	0
	HA	> 0	< 0	0	100

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

图5

图6

图7

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slope(NDVI)^a	影响程度
< -2.0	明显抑制
-2.0~-1.0	中度抑制
-1.0~-0.2	轻微抑制
-0.2~0.2	基本无影响
0.2~1.0	轻微促进
1.0~2.0	中度促进
≥ 2.0	明显促进

地区	slope (NDVI_obs)^a	对植被恢复的作用		驱动力	地区	slope(NDVI_obs)^a	对植被恢复的作用		驱动力
地区	slope (NDVI_obs)^a	CC^b	HA^c	驱动力	地区	slope(NDVI_obs)^a	CC^b	HA^c	驱动力
上海	-0.33	基本无影响	轻微抑制	CC & HA	海南	1.18	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
西藏	0.04	基本无影响	基本无影响	CC	甘肃	1.39	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
吉林	0.26	基本无影响	基本无影响	CC & HA	河南	1.41	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
黑龙江	0.44	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	湖北	1.42	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
青海	0.47	轻微促进	基本无影响	CC & HA	湖南	1.43	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
四川	0.51	轻微促进	基本无影响	CC & HA	江西	1.46	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
内蒙古	0.55	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	贵州	1.54	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
云南	0.64	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	宁夏	1.55	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
浙江	0.68	轻微促进	基本无影响	CC & HA	安徽	1.58	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
新疆	0.7	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	广西	1.62	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
台湾	0.83	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	北京	1.7	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
天津	0.85	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	山东	1.74	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
广东	0.9	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	河北	1.78	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
福建	0.91	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	重庆	2.16	中度促进	中度促进	CC & HA
江苏	1	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	陕西	2.24	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
辽宁	1.1	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	山西	2.71	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA

1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响

Contribution of climatic change and human activities to vegetation NDVI change over China during 1982-2015

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