基于格点数据的1961—2016年中国气候季节时空变化

doi:10.11821/dlxb202003002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究基于中国气象局发布的气候季节划分标准（QX/T152—2012）,选取国家气象信息中心发布的中国地面气温日值0.5°×0.5°格点数据集（V2.0）,运用改进的多元回归模型解释了中国常年气候季节空间变化,通过线性趋势和极点经验模态分解（ESMD）分析了1961—2016年气候季节分布面积、持续日数及其开始日期的变化趋势。结果显示：中国大陆分布的主要气候季节有常冬区、无冬区、无夏区以及四季分明区,常夏区和常春区暂无分布;根据常年和多年气候季节分区面积变化来看,常冬区分布范围呈显著缩小趋势,无冬区范围显著扩大,无夏区和四季分明区范围变化不明显,常年气候季节范围变化区域主要集中在青藏高原和内蒙古高原海拔较高地区,其余地区几乎没有变化;常年和多年气候季节的四季持续日数变化显著区域主要集中在北方地区,夏季开始日期的提前导致内蒙古高原中西部、河西走廊以及新疆东部的持续日数变化显著增加,冬季开始日期的推后造成这些地区冬季持续日数减少,高海拔地区持续日数变化比平原地区更显著。研究揭示的中国气候季节的分布和变化特征可以为气象预报以及气候区划提供参考。

关键词: 气候季节, 多元回归模型, 时空分布, 中国

Abstract:

In this study, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the climatic seasons in China from 1961 to 2016 are analyzed by using the climatic seasonal division standard (QX/T152-2012) issued by the China Meteorological Administration, the Chinese daily surface temperature dataset (V2.0, 0.5°×0.5°) issued by the National Meteorological Information Center, and the revised multiple regression model. The linear trend and extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD) are used to analyze the variations in the distribution area, durations, and start date of the climatic seasons. The main results are as follows. There are four climatic seasonal regions in China, namely, the perennial-winter, no-winter, no-summer and discernible regions, while there are no perennial-summer or perennial-spring regions. Considering the area variation of each region, the range of the perennial-winter region is significantly narrower, and the area of no-winter region increases, while the areas of no-summer and discernible regions have no significant changes. The regions with significant changes in the normal climatic seasons are mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Inner Mongolia Plateau. The regions with significant changes in the durations of the climatic seasons are mainly found in the northern China. The advance of the summer start date has led to a significant increase in the durations of climatic seasons in the central and western Inner Mongolia, Hexi Corridor and Xinjiang, and the postponement of the winter start date has resulted in a decrease in the number of winter days in these areas. In general, the climatic seasons at high altitudes in western China have more significant changes than those in the eastern coastal plains. Overall, the distribution and changes of the climatic seasons in China are revealed by this investigation, which could provide a reference for operational weather forecasting and climatic region division.

Key words: climatic seasons, multiple regression model, spatio-temporal distribution, China

马彬, 张勃. 基于格点数据的1961—2016年中国气候季节时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(3): 458-469.

MA Bin, ZHANG Bo. Spatio-temporal distribution of the climatic seasonsin China from 1961 to 2016[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(3): 458-469.

图/表 8

表1

不同气候基准期中国气候季节长度的多元回归模拟

气候基准期	气温界限(℃)	多元回归模型	$R 2$	显著性水平
1961—1990年	10	$Y = 3670.94 + 46.96 θ - 0.003 θ 3 - 1.76 sin θ - 1351.9 ln θ - 119.33 ln φ - 0.02 h$	0.97	0.001
1961—1990年	22	$Y = 396.03 + 60.16 θ - 0.005 θ 2 + 2.42 sin θ - 1466.7 ln θ - 121.4 ln φ - 0.11 h$	0.958	0.001
1971—2000年	10	$Y = 3664.61 + 46.48 θ - 0.004 θ 3 - 1.98 sin θ - 1347.7 ln θ - 118.44 ln φ - 0.017 h$	0.97	0.001
1971—2000年	22	$Y = 733.87 + 65.55 θ - 0.74 θ 2 + 1.75 sin θ - 1591.49 ln θ - 165.82 ln φ - 0.11 h$	0.958	0.001
1981—2010年	10	$Y = 3500.66 + 42.68 θ - 0.003 θ 3 - 2.11 sin θ - 1265.95 ln θ - 114.2 ln φ - 0.02 h$	0.97	0.001
1981—2010年	22	$Y = - 814.78 + 67.93 θ - 0.012 θ 3 + 2.1 sin θ - 855.36 ln θ - 147 ln φ - 0.11 h$	0.959	0.001

表1

图1

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表2

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