地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (1): 98-112.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202001008
赵贵宁1, 张正勇1(), 刘琳1, 徐丽萍1, 王璞玉2, 李丽1, 宁珊1
收稿日期:
2018-12-27
修回日期:
2019-11-09
出版日期:
2020-01-25
发布日期:
2020-03-25
作者简介:
赵贵宁(1992-), 男, 硕士生, 主要从事冰川变化对气候响应研究。E-mail: 13345492733@163.com
基金资助:
ZHAO Guining1, ZHANG Zhengyong1(), LIU Lin1, XU Liping1, WANG Puyu2, LI Li1, NING Shan1
Received:
2018-12-27
Revised:
2019-11-09
Published:
2020-01-25
Online:
2020-03-25
Supported by:
摘要:
冰川物质平衡变化是连接气候和水资源的重要纽带,对河川径流有重要的调节功能。本文采用MOD11C3和TRMM 3B43等多源遥感数据驱动度日模型,模拟了2000—2016年玛纳斯河(简称玛河)流域冰川物质平衡过程,并分析了冰川融水对径流的补给规律。结果表明: ① 通过构建气温及降水反演模型能有效校正气象遥感原数据的精度,且经降尺度后能较精细刻画冰川区气候变化特征。冰川区年均气温和降水量分别为-7.57 ℃和410.71 mm,海拔4200 m处为气候变化剧烈地带,气温直减率以其为界上下分别为-0.03 ℃/100 m和-0.57 ℃/100 m,降水梯度分别为-2.66 mm/100 m和4.8 mm/100 m,海拔大于4700 m后降水又以5.17 mm/100 m递增。② 研究期内流域冰川持续呈负平衡状态,累积物质平衡达-9811.19 mm w.e.,年均物质平衡介于-464.85~-632.19 mm w.e.之间。垂向物质平衡在消融区和积累区分别以244.83 mm w.e./100 m、18.77 mm w.e./100 m递增。2000—2002年、2008—2010年冰川消融减缓,2002—2008年、2010—2016年消融加剧,其中2005—2009年期间冰川亏损最为强烈。③ 年内河川径流对冰川物质平衡变化响应强烈,尤以7月、8月物质平衡亏损最为严重占全年总量的75.4%,使得同期河川径流量占全年径流总量的55.1%。年际冰川融水补给率波动于19%~31%之间,可能是不同年份降水和积雪融水补给率差异较大所致。玛河与天山北坡其他河流冰川融水贡献率非常接近,也进一步证实了本研究物质平衡估算结果的可靠性。本研究可为其他流域冰川物质平衡研究提供借鉴和参考。
赵贵宁, 张正勇, 刘琳, 徐丽萍, 王璞玉, 李丽, 宁珊. 基于多源遥感数据的玛纳斯河流域冰川物质平衡变化[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(1): 98-112.
ZHAO Guining, ZHANG Zhengyong, LIU Lin, XU Liping, WANG Puyu, LI Li, NING Shan. Changes of glacier mass balance in Manas river basin based on multi-source remote sensing data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 98-112.
表1
数据来源
数据类型 | 时间 | 分辨率 | 数据来源 |
---|---|---|---|
DEM | - | 30 m×30 m | 地理空间数据云( |
NDVI | 2000—2016年 | 250 m×250 m | |
MOD11C3 | 0.05°×0.05° | 美国国家航空航天局( | |
TRMM 3B43 | 0.25°×0.25° | ||
气温 | 逐月 | 国家气象信息中心( | |
降水 | |||
径流量 | 肯斯瓦特水文站 | ||
冰川面积 | 2009年 | - | 寒区旱区科学数据中心( |
积雪密度 | 2014年 | 文献[ |
表2
逐月平均温度回归模型系数及精度验证
月份 | 回归因子系数 | 精度验证 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
λ | a | b | c | d | e | f | g | RMSE | R2 | ||
1 | 5.41 | 1.12 | -0.64 | -0.0020 | 0.210 | 0.0110 | 3.89 | 1.57 | 3.06 | 0.89 | |
2 | 56.48 | -0.47 | -0.41 | -0.0040 | 0.260 | 0.0101 | 8.97 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 0.94 | |
3 | 121.38 | -2.05 | -0.26 | -0.0070 | 0.220 | 0.0130 | 15.43 | 1.22 | 2.88 | 0.95 | |
4 | 143.06 | -2.54 | -0.11 | -0.0120 | 0.170 | 0.0060 | 6.88 | 0.84 | 1.82 | 0.94 | |
5 | 140.79 | -2.31 | -0.05 | -0.0100 | 0.170 | 0.0043 | -1.61 | 0.76 | 1.16 | 0.95 | |
6 | 127.95 | -1.80 | -0.04 | -0.0130 | 0.136 | 0.0080 | -4.57 | 0.63 | 1.16 | 0.96 | |
7 | 108.19 | -1.36 | -0.04 | -0.0130 | 0.120 | 0.0120 | -5.25 | 0.66 | 1.42 | 0.96 | |
8 | 109.65 | -1.40 | -0.05 | -0.0130 | 0.120 | 0.0110 | -5.25 | 0.63 | 1.16 | 0.94 | |
9 | 111.77 | -1.70 | -0.04 | -0.0090 | 0.160 | 0.0101 | -3.00 | 0.72 | 1.30 | 0.92 | |
10 | 81.19 | -1.35 | -0.10 | -0.0058 | 0.208 | 0.0058 | 6.03 | 1.06 | 1.15 | 0.89 | |
11 | 48.80 | -0.57 | -0.25 | -0.0034 | 0.240 | 0.0110 | 9.49 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 0.90 | |
12 | 51.62 | 0.26 | -0.71 | -0.0030 | 0.280 | 0.0120 | -14.49 | 0.62 | 1.52 | 0.90 |
表3
逐月降水量回归模型系数及精度验证
月份 | 回归因子系数 | 精度验证 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
λ | a | b | c | d | e | f | g | RMSE | R2 | ||
1 | 19.27 | -1.15 | 0.34 | -0.0021 | 0.049 | 0.0036 | -1.86 | 1.15 | 3.69 | 0.74 | |
2 | 42.42 | -2.33 | 0.68 | -0.0030 | 0.136 | -0.0020 | -38.85 | 1.18 | 9.31 | 0.76 | |
3 | -60.87 | 1.32 | 0.04 | -0.0018 | -0.006 | 0.0105 | 4.37 | 1.03 | 6.75 | 0.81 | |
4 | 158.81 | -4.82 | 0.65 | -0.0113 | 0.108 | 0.0011 | -29.90 | 1.64 | 10.33 | 0.85 | |
5 | 63.84 | -2.64 | 0.66 | -0.0053 | 0.065 | -0.0054 | -24.15 | 1.31 | 13.20 | 0.85 | |
6 | -149.02 | 2.60 | 0.44 | 0.0095 | -0.014 | -0.0289 | -19.10 | 1.01 | 14.41 | 0.88 | |
7 | -174.73 | 2.97 | 0.47 | 0.0145 | 0.106 | -0.0261 | -11.22 | 0.97 | 14.33 | 0.83 | |
8 | -83.76 | 1.29 | 0.26 | 0.0113 | 0.072 | -0.0201 | -11.61 | 1.11 | 19.69 | 0.84 | |
9 | -25.69 | 1.09 | -0.27 | 0.0001 | -0.027 | 0.0172 | -20.52 | 1.51 | 8.43 | 0.82 | |
10 | 38.29 | 0.60 | -0.72 | -0.0034 | 0.038 | 0.0143 | -8.00 | 0.91 | 8.42 | 0.85 | |
11 | 60.39 | -1.92 | 0.28 | -0.0047 | 0.035 | -0.0002 | -5.51 | 1.12 | 9.08 | 0.78 | |
12 | -4.97 | -0.06 | 0.10 | -0.0024 | 0.001 | 0.0007 | -6.95 | 0.93 | 4.29 | 0.71 |
表4
2000—2016年冰川物质平衡及冰川融水补给率变化
年份 | 零物质平衡线高度(m) | 物质平衡(mm w.e.) | 冰川融水(108 m3) | 纯冰消融(108 m3) | 纯冰消融比率 | 河川径流(108 m3) | 冰川融水比率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 4538 | -545.86 | 3.29 | 2.72 | 0.83 | 16.29 | 0.20 |
2001 | 4550 | -566.88 | 2.99 | 2.60 | 0.87 | 14.43 | 0.21 |
2002 | 4530 | -551.41 | 3.51 | 2.82 | 0.80 | 18.74 | 0.19 |
2003 | 4558 | -584.20 | 3.22 | 2.72 | 0.85 | 11.05 | 0.29 |
2004 | 4560 | -620.49 | 3.47 | 2.90 | 0.83 | 12.28 | 0.28 |
2005 | 4532 | -575.59 | 3.37 | 2.71 | 0.81 | 13.39 | 0.25 |
2006 | 4588 | -632.19 | 3.63 | 2.99 | 0.82 | 13.18 | 0.28 |
2007 | 4537 | -602.90 | 3.68 | 2.81 | 0.76 | 15.47 | 0.24 |
2008 | 4569 | -624.72 | 3.27 | 2.82 | 0.86 | 13.77 | 0.24 |
2009 | 4507 | -464.85 | 2.91 | 2.56 | 0.88 | 11.00 | 0.26 |
2010 | 4533 | -527.05 | 3.36 | 2.84 | 0.85 | 16.62 | 0.20 |
2011 | 4560 | -602.95 | 3.65 | 2.90 | 0.79 | 11.74 | 0.31 |
2012 | 4555 | -597.01 | 3.46 | 2.79 | 0.81 | 12.54 | 0.28 |
2013 | 4553 | -587.42 | 3.41 | 2.79 | 0.82 | 13.37 | 0.25 |
2014 | 4556 | -563.95 | 3.21 | 2.75 | 0.86 | 10.65 | 0.30 |
2015 | 4573 | -605.61 | 4.01 | 3.20 | 0.80 | 18.35 | 0.22 |
2016 | 4528 | -558.11 | 3.48 | 2.82 | 0.81 | 15.45 | 0.23 |
均值 | 4549 | -577.13 | 3.41 | 2.81 | 0.83 | 14.02 | 0.25 |
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