地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (12): 2604-2613.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201912013
收稿日期:
2019-05-29
修回日期:
2019-11-26
出版日期:
2019-12-25
发布日期:
2019-12-25
通讯作者:
孙东琪
E-mail:sundq@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:
牛方曲(1979-), 安徽淮南人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 主要从事区域与城市发展模拟分析研究,旁及交通地理、“一带一路”研究。E-mail:niufq@lreis.ac.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2019-05-29
Revised:
2019-11-26
Online:
2019-12-25
Published:
2019-12-25
Contact:
SUN Dongqi
E-mail:sundq@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
1978年改革开放以来中国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹,但人和自然关系出现严重不协调,突出表现为资源的过度消耗与环境污染的加剧。与此同时,为实现2050年成为现代化强国的发展目标,中国亟需持续发展。为此,中国学者和政府需着力解决问题是,在未来中长期内,中国应当期望多高的经济增长率及其对应的发展模式或调控手段?本文对影响乃至决定国民经济增长的资源环境支撑系统以及建立在这之上的发展模式进行分析,揭示经济增长及发展模式与支撑系统之间的耦合关系,模拟发展与环境之间相互作用过程,阐释未来经济增长可能的方案及其对资源环境支撑系统(主要因素)的要求,对中国资源环境状态和发展状态做出预警。模拟结果显示,为实现2050年进入发达国家行列并保持良好生态环境的发展目标,在考虑技术进步会改善资源利用效率和污染排放的前提下,中国采取3.8%~6.3%的经增速较为适宜。在该区间内,3.8%~4.4%是较为安全的发展速度,而4.4%~6.3%的发展速度则要求较高的技术进步。本文所构建的系统动力学模型可用于对比分析不同发展情景,选择更优发展方案,为实现国家的可持续发展提供决策支持。本研究也是对“未来地球”框架文件的响应,从人口和产业发展速度方面发展了资源环境承载力的理论体系,具有重要理论探索意义和应用价值。
牛方曲, 孙东琪. 资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(12): 2604-2613.
NIU Fangqu, SUN Dongqi. Modelling the sustainability of China's growth based on the resource and environmental carrying capacity[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(12): 2604-2613.
表1
各情景参数"
参数类型 | 参数 | 当前态势 | 情景1 | 情景2 | 情景3 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
人口、 城市化 | 人口增长 | 750万/年 | 世界银行 预测值 | 世界银行 预测值 | 世界银行 预测值 | ||
城市化速度(百分点/年) | 1.03 | 0.5 | 0.50 | 0.50 | |||
产业经济 | 三产发展占比增长(百分点/年) | 0.69 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
经济增长速度(%) | 6.9 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 4.4 | |||
水资源 | 一产用水强度(亿m3/亿美元) | 0.385 | 0.385 | 下降1.22百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | ||
二产用水强度(亿m3/亿美元) | 0.026 | 0.026 | 下降1.22百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
生活用水强度(亿m3/万人) | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | 下降1.22百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
水环境 | 一产COD排放强度(万t/亿美元) | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | ||
二产COD排放强度(万t/亿美元) | 0.0026 | 0.0026 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
生活COD排放强度(万t/万人) | 0.0053 | 0.0053 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
能源 | 一产能耗强度(万t标准煤/亿美元) | 0.8710 | 0.871 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | ||
二产能耗强度(万t标准煤/亿美元) | 6.7670 | 6.767 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
三产能耗强度(万t标准煤/亿美元) | 1.3100 | 1.3100 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
生活能耗强度(万t标准煤/万人) | 0.3900 | 0.3900 | 下降1.67百分点/年 | 年均改善0.42% | |||
土地资源 | 工业用地强度(km2/亿美元) | 0.2652 | 0.2652 | 0.2652 | 0.2652 | ||
三产用地强度(km2/亿美元) | 0.0864 | 0.0864 | 0.0864 | 0.0864 | |||
居住用地强度(km2/万人) | 0.2087 | 0.2087 | 0.2087 | 0.2087 |
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