资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb201912013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

1978年改革开放以来中国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹,但人和自然关系出现严重不协调,突出表现为资源的过度消耗与环境污染的加剧。与此同时,为实现2050年成为现代化强国的发展目标,中国亟需持续发展。为此,中国学者和政府需着力解决问题是,在未来中长期内,中国应当期望多高的经济增长率及其对应的发展模式或调控手段?本文对影响乃至决定国民经济增长的资源环境支撑系统以及建立在这之上的发展模式进行分析,揭示经济增长及发展模式与支撑系统之间的耦合关系,模拟发展与环境之间相互作用过程,阐释未来经济增长可能的方案及其对资源环境支撑系统（主要因素）的要求,对中国资源环境状态和发展状态做出预警。模拟结果显示,为实现2050年进入发达国家行列并保持良好生态环境的发展目标,在考虑技术进步会改善资源利用效率和污染排放的前提下,中国采取3.8%~6.3%的经增速较为适宜。在该区间内,3.8%~4.4%是较为安全的发展速度,而4.4%~6.3%的发展速度则要求较高的技术进步。本文所构建的系统动力学模型可用于对比分析不同发展情景,选择更优发展方案,为实现国家的可持续发展提供决策支持。本研究也是对“未来地球”框架文件的响应,从人口和产业发展速度方面发展了资源环境承载力的理论体系,具有重要理论探索意义和应用价值。

关键词: 资源环境承载力, 人—地系统, 可持续发展, 增长速度, 系统动力学

Abstract:

Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has created a miracle of long-term high-speed economic growth, but the relationship between man and nature has suffered a serious damage, which is highlighted by the excessive consumption of resources and the intensification of environmental pollution. As a result, China is facing a slowdown in development. At the same time, China needs to maintain a certain speed of development in order to realize the dream of a powerful nationality entering the ranks of developed countries in 2050. To this end, China is facing transformation development. Now Chinese scholars and governments need to answer this kind of question: What economic growth rate is expected along with the corresponding development modes or means of regulation in the medium and long term? The growth development mode of the national economy is influenced and even dominated by the resource and environment support system. This study is intended to reveal the coupling relationship between economic growth, development modes and the supporting system, simulate the interaction process between them, explore the possible options for future economic growth and its requirements for the resource and environmental support system (the main factors), and provide early warning regarding China's environmental and development status. The results show that in order to achieve the development goal of entering the ranks of developed countries in 2050 and maintaining a fine ecological environment, the suitable growth rate for China's economy is 3.8%-6.3% on the premise that technological progress will improve resource utilization efficiency and reduce pollution emissions. Within this speed range, on the one hand, the smaller development velocity may be adopted to reduce the pressure on resources and environment, on the other hand, higher velocity can be adopted given that we are optimistic about the technological advances. The model proposed could help to compare different development scenarios and determine a better development mode; this way provides decision support for sustainable development. This study is a response to the "Future Earth" framework document. It develops the theoretical system of the resource and environmental carrying capacity in terms of development speed. It has important theoretical exploration significance and application value.

Key words: resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC), human-environment system, sustainable development, growth rate, system dynamic model (SD)

牛方曲, 孙东琪. 资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(12): 2604-2613.

NIU Fangqu, SUN Dongqi. Modelling the sustainability of China's growth based on the resource and environmental carrying capacity[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(12): 2604-2613.

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参数类型		参数	当前态势	情景1		情景2	情景3
人口、城市化		人口增长	750万/年	世界银行预测值		世界银行预测值	世界银行预测值
人口、城市化		城市化速度(百分点/年)	1.03	0.5		0.50	0.50
产业经济		三产发展占比增长(百分点/年)	0.69	0.25		0.25	0.25
产业经济		经济增长速度(%)	6.9	3.8		6.3	4.4
	水资源	一产用水强度(亿m³/亿美元)	0.385		0.385	下降1.22百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		二产用水强度(亿m³/亿美元)	0.026		0.026	下降1.22百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		生活用水强度(亿m³/万人)	0.0060		0.0060	下降1.22百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
	水环境	一产COD排放强度(万t/亿美元)	0.0455		0.0455	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		二产COD排放强度(万t/亿美元)	0.0026		0.0026	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		生活COD排放强度(万t/万人)	0.0053		0.0053	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
	能源	一产能耗强度(万t标准煤/亿美元)	0.8710		0.871	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		二产能耗强度(万t标准煤/亿美元)	6.7670		6.767	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		三产能耗强度(万t标准煤/亿美元)	1.3100		1.3100	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
		生活能耗强度(万t标准煤/万人)	0.3900		0.3900	下降1.67百分点/年	年均改善0.42%
	土地资源	工业用地强度(km²/亿美元)	0.2652		0.2652	0.2652	0.2652
		三产用地强度(km²/亿美元)	0.0864		0.0864	0.0864	0.0864
		居住用地强度(km²/万人)	0.2087		0.2087	0.2087	0.2087