中国人口老龄化格局演变与形成机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201910015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口老龄化的度量包括数量（老年人口数量和占比）和质量（人口预期寿命）两个方面。基于第六次人口普查和历年统计年鉴数据,综合运用空间自相关、Sullivan健康预期寿命测度模型、地理加权回归等方法,刻画了1990-2016年中国人口老龄化“数量”与“质量”的空间格局及其变化特征,并对其作用机制进行深入探讨。结果表明：① 总体上,人口老龄化“数量”与“质量”的发展并不协调,存在空间差异性。② 从“数量”上,“胡焕庸线”东南半壁老龄化程度高于西北半壁,但增速变化存在阶段性特征。老龄化水平存在高值和低值集聚区。高值集聚区由沿海向内陆扩展,位于西北地区的老龄化低值集聚区则逐渐萎缩。③ 从“质量”上看,“胡焕庸线”东南半壁人口预期寿命优于西北半壁,东部沿海省市远高于其他地区。④ 老年人口预期寿命与健康预期寿命发展并不同步,存在性别差异与区域功能缺损扩张效应。相比中西部,东部地区预期寿命与健康预期寿命均占优势。⑤ 从形成机制来看,“数量”格局的形成受人口自然变动与机械变动共同作用,其中,出生率为主导因素;对于“质量”而言,自然环境差异、社会环境发展不协调等是影响预期寿命的重要因素,其中经济发展与卫生医疗事业进步是寿命延长的主要推动力。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 空间格局, 老龄化系数, 预期寿命, 形成机制, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the Sixth National Census and annual China Statistical Yearbook, the paper characterizes the spatial patterns and variation features of the "quantity" and "quality" of China's aging and its mechanism over the past 30 years or more by using spatial autocorrelation, Sullivan healthy life expectancy measurement model, and geographical weighted regression. The results are shown as follows: (1) Overall, the development of "quantity" of aging is not coordinated with that of "quality", and there are spatial differences between them. (2) In terms of "quantity", the figure of aging in the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is higher than that in the northwest half, but the change of growth rate has a phased feature. There are high and low value agglomeration areas at the aging level. The high-value agglomeration area expands from the coastal area to the inland area, while the low-value agglomeration area located in the northwest of China is gradually shrinking. (3) In terms of "quality", the figure of the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is better than that of the northwest half, and the eastern coastal provinces enjoy far higher figures than other regions. (4) In terms of "quality" characteristics represented by life expectancy, the figure of the life expectancy and the healthy life expectancy are not synchronized, and there are gender differences and morbidity expansion effect. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has higher life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. (5) From the perspective of formation mechanism, the formation of the "quantity" pattern of aging is affected by the interaction between natural and migrating population variations, with the birth rate being the major element. As for "quality", differences in natural environment and uncoordinated development of social environment are significant factors affecting life expectancy, and economic development and the health and medical services progress are the main driving forces for greater longevity.

Key words: aging, spatial patterns, aging coefficient, life expectancy, formative mechanism, China

周榕, 庄汝龙, 黄晨熹. 中国人口老龄化格局演变与形成机制[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(10): 2163-2177.

ZHOU Rong, ZHUANG Rulong, HUANG Chenxi. Pattern evolution and formative mechanism of aging in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 2163-2177.

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	合计			男性			女性			男女差值(年)
年份	预期寿命(年)	增量(年)	增速(%)	预期寿命(年)	增量(年)	增速(%)	预期寿命(年)	增量(年)	增速(%)	男女差值(年)
1982	67.77	-	-	66.28	-	-	69.27	-	-	2.99
1990	68.55	0.78	1.15	66.84	0.56	0.84	70.47	1.20	1.73	3.63
1995	70.80	2.25	3.28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2000	71.40	0.60	0.85	69.63	-	-	73.33	-	-	3.70
2005	72.95	1.55	2.17	70.83	1.20	1.72	75.25	1.92	2.62	4.42
2010	74.83	1.88	2.58	72.38	1.55	2.19	77.37	2.12	2.82	4.99
2015	76.34	1.51	2.02	73.64	1.26	1.74	79.43	2.06	2.66	5.79

指标	平均值	最大值	最小值	上四分位值	中位值	下四分位值
x₁	-0.3520	-0.1875	-0.4583	-0.2691	-0.3689	-0.4336
x₂	-0.1192	0.0805	-0.2868	-0.0000	-0.1447	-0.2259
x₃	0.0066	0.0125	0.0035	0.0079	0.0063	0.0051
x₄	-0.0064	-0.0052	-0.0100	-0.0054	-0.0055	-0.0073
x₅	-0.0005	0.0026	-0.0103	0.0018	0.0011	-0.0018
x₆	0.0245	0.0353	0.0096	0.0309	0.0267	0.0175
x₇	0.0238	0.0507	0.0043	0.0381	0.0205	0.0100