• 乡村振兴与区域发展 •

### 汶川Ms 8.0地震极重灾区的经济韧性测度及恢复效率

1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100101
• 收稿日期:2018-07-24 修回日期:2019-06-20 出版日期:2019-10-25 发布日期:2019-10-29
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(No.41501139);国家自然科学基金项目(No.41630644);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(No.XDA20020301)

### Economic resilience and recovery efficiency in the severely affected area of Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

ZHOU Kan1(),LIU Baoyin2,FAN Jie1,2

1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Institutes of Science and Development, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
• Received:2018-07-24 Revised:2019-06-20 Published:2019-10-25 Online:2019-10-29
• Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41501139);National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41630644);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA20020301)

Abstract:

It is of great significance to enhance disaster prevention and response capacity to reveal the post-disaster economic development and recovery process, and to formulate the control policies and recovery methods for post-disaster economic reconstruction according to the economic resilience. Based on the long-term socio-economic data and ARIMA model, this paper calculated the economic resilience index of severely affected area of Wenchuan earthquake, and adopted the improved Variable Return to Scale (VRS) DEA model and Malmquist productivity index to analyze the efficiency and effect of annual post-disaster recovery. The results show that: (1) The economic resilience index of earthquake severely affected area is 0.877. The earthquake caused a short-term economic recession in the affected areas, but the economy returned to its pre-quake state within two years. In addition, the industrial economy is less resilient than agriculture and service industries. (2) The comprehensive economic recovery efficiency of the disaster-stricken area in the year after the disaster is 0.603. The comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the plain hilly area are significantly higher than those of the plateau mountain area. (3) The annual fluctuation of total factor productivity after the disaster was strong, and the economic recovery efficiency declined significantly, resulting in a short-term economic recession. The TFP index returned to steady state after a decline of 33.7% and 15.2% in the two years after the disaster. (4) The significant decline in the post-disaster recovery efficiency is mainly caused by technological changes, and the renewal of production system is the leading factor in determining the economic resilience after the disaster. With the decline in the scale of economic recovery, the long-term economic recovery in the study areas mainly depends on pure technical efficiency, and the improvement of pure technical efficiency is the driving force to maintain the long-term growth of post-disaster economy. Therefore, in view of the differences between the reconstruction of natural conditions and the stage of economic development, the disaster-stricken areas need to change and readjust their economic structures actively. Meanwhile, we should pay attention to updating production system to enhance the level of technological progress, and give full play to the scale effect of large-scale capital, facilities, manpower and other factors investment, so as to enhance the response to the disaster impact of economic resilience and recovery efficiency.