中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb201910006

地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (10): 2027-2044.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201910006

中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素

周亮^1,²,车磊³,周成虎²

^1. 兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,兰州 730070
^2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101
^3. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州 730070

收稿日期:2018-07-02 修回日期:2019-06-28 出版日期:2019-10-25 发布日期:2019-10-29
作者简介:周亮(1983-), 男, 甘肃天水人, 博士/博士后, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110012408), 研究方向为城市与区域可持续发展。E-mail: zhougeo@126.com
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导A类专项(No.XDA19040502);国家自然科学基金项目(No.41701173);国家自然科学基金项目(No.41961027);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(No.17YJCZH268)

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China

ZHOU Liang^1,²,CHE Lei³,ZHOU Chenghu²

^1. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
^2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
^3. College of Geography and Environment Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2018-07-02 Revised:2019-06-28 Published:2019-10-25 Online:2019-10-29
Supported by:
The Strategic Priority Research Program of the CAS(No.XDA19040502);National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41701173);National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41961027);Science Foundation for the Excellent Youth Scholars of Ministry of Education of China(No.17YJCZH268)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

绿色发展作为化解自然环境约束、破解经济转型难题、支撑和实现全球可持续发展目标（SDGs）关键。正逐渐成为中国生态文明建设、美丽中国建设和全球经济转型与重构的重要指导理念。在梳理绿色发展概念与内涵基础上,采用SBM-Undesirable模型、泰尔指数和空间马尔科夫链等方法,对2005-2015年中国城市绿色发展效率时空分异特征及其演变过程进行了测度与刻画,并进一步耦合自然与人文因素定量探讨了人地关系地域系统下的影响机制。研究表明：① 2005-2015年中国城市绿色发展效率稳步提升,由0.475增加到0.523,总体提高了10%,时序上呈现“W”型波动增加的阶段性演变特征。② 中国城市绿色发展效率呈现出“东中西”阶梯状递减的区域差异规律,不同类型城市群具有“国家级>区域性>地方性”倒金字塔式集群增长特征,形成了“超大城市>特大城市>大城市>中等城市>小城市”稳定等级规模结构。③ 中国城市绿色发展效率空间集聚特征显著,高效率城市存在正向溢出效应,低效率城市则负向溢出影响,“高高集聚、高带动低”的空间俱乐部趋同现象较为凸显,不同类型城市演化存在显著的路径依赖与时空惯性。④ 人地关系地域系统视角下,人文社会因素对城市绿色发展效率影响程度大于自然本底要素,其中经济实力、产业结构、开放程度和城市气温呈现积极促进作用。

关键词: 绿色发展, 效率, 空间马尔科夫, 时空演变, 人地关系, 可持续发展目标

Abstract:

Green development is pivotal to resolving natural environmental constraints, solving national economic transition, and supporting and realizing the United Nations sustainable development goals. It is gradually growing into a crucial guideline for China's ecological civilization construction, "Beautiful China" development, and global economic transition and restructure. Based on a thorough review of the concept of green development, this paper accurately depicts a full picture of China's spatio-temporal patterns of urban green development efficiency (UGDE) in 2005-2015 by using SBM-Undesirable, the Theil index and the Spatial Markov Chain methods. Moreover, the influencing mechanism has been further discussed based on a quantitative analysis of both natural and human factors. Our results demonstrate that: (1) UGDE increased steadily by 10% from 0.475 in 2005 to 0.523 in 2015. And temporally, it shows a pattern of "W"-shaped fluctuated growth. (2) Spatially, UGDE decreased from eastern to central China, and further to western China. Besides, there is an inverted pyramid pattern of "national level > regional level > local level" urban agglomeration in UDGE growth. Moreover, there is a steady urban scale structure from super city to small city in UDGE. (3) There is an evident concentration of cities with high-level and low-level UDGE, indicating a significant influence of path dependence. (4) Quantitatively speaking, compared to natural factors, human factors such as economy size, industry structure, and openness level play a more important role in influencing the UDGE.

Key words: green development, efficiency, spatial markov chain, spatio-temporal evolution, man-land relationship, sustainable development goals（SDGs）

周亮, 车磊, 周成虎. 中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.

ZHOU Liang, CHE Lei, ZHOU Chenghu. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

图8

表3

参考文献 35

[1]	Huang Maoxing, Ye Qi . The Marxist green development concept and green development in contemporary China: Comment on incompatibility theory between environment and development. Economic Research Journal, 2017,52(6):17-30.
	[ 黄茂兴, 叶琪 . 马克思主义绿色发展观与当代中国的绿色发展: 兼评环境与发展不相容论. 经济研究, 2017,52(6):17-30.]
[2]	Marc M F . Satellite images show China going green. Nature, 2018,553(7689):411-413.
[3]	Feng Tao, Zhang Huiqun, Hu Jun , et al. Dynamics of green productivity growth for major Chinese urban agglomerations. Applied Energy, 2017,196:170-179.
[4]	Che Lei, Bai Yongping, Zhou Liang , et al. Spatial pattern and spillover effects of green development efficiency in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(11):1788-1798.
	[ 车磊, 白永平, 周亮 , 等. 中国绿色发展效率的空间特征及溢出分析. 地理科学, 2018,38(11):1788-1798.]
[5]	Ronald R K, Peter J S, Arvind P . Exploring the link between research and economic growth: An empirical study of China and USA. Quality & Quantity, 2016,50(3):1-19.
[6]	Haukkala, Teresa . A struggle for change: The formation of a green-transition advocacy coalition in Finland. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2018,27:146-156.
[7]	Zeng Ning, Ding Yihui, Pan Jiahua , et al. Sustainable development: Climate change - The Chinese challenge. Science, 2008,319(5864):730.
[8]	Brundtland G H, Khalid M, Agnelli S , et al. Our Common Future. New York: Island Press, 1987.
[9]	OECD. Towards Green Growth: Monitoring Progress OECD Indicator, 2011.
[10]	Lin Boqiang, Nelson I Benjamin . Green development determinants in China: A non-radial quantile outlook. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017,162:764-775.
[11]	Liu Xuemin, Zhang Shengling . Chinese enterprise green transition: Target pattern, obstacles and countermeasures. China Population Resources and Environment, 2015,25(6):1-4.
	[ 刘学敏, 张生玲 . 中国企业绿色转型: 目标模式、面临障碍与对策. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,25(6):1-4.]
[12]	Choi Y, Bone C, Zhang N . Sustainable policies and strategies in Asia: Challenges for green growth. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016,112:134-137.
[13]	Huang Jianhuan, Lv Hailong, Wang Liangjian . Mechanism of financial development influencing regional green development: Based on eco-fficiency and spatial econometrics. Geographical Research, 2014,33(3):532-545.
	[ 黄建欢, 吕海龙, 王良健 . 金融发展影响区域绿色发展的机理: 基于生态效率和空间计量的研究. 地理研究, 2014,33(3):532-545.]
[14]	Gu Chaolin . Urban and Regional Planning Research: Green Development and Urban Planning Reform. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 2015.
	[ 顾朝林 . 城市与区域规划研究: 绿色发展与城市规划变革. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2015.]
[15]	Zheng Deifeng, Zang Zheng, Sun Caizhi , et al. Prediction and analysis of the transition to green economy in China based on the theory of ecosystem services. Acta Ecologica Sinisa, 2014,34(23):7137-7147. doi: 10.5846/stxb201306041304
	[ 郑德凤, 臧正, 孙才志 , 等. 基于生态系统服务理论的中国绿色经济转型预测分析. 生态学报, 2014,34(23):7137-7147.] doi: 10.5846/stxb201306041304
[16]	Feng Tao, Zhang Huiqin, Hu Jun , et al. Dynamics of green productivity growth for major Chinese urban agglomerations. Applied Energy, 2016,196:170-179.
[17]	Bai Yu, Hua Congcong, Jiao Jianling , et al. Green efficiency and environmental subsidy: Evidence from thermal power firms in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018,188:49-61.
[18]	Mu Xueying, Liu Kai, Ren Jianlan . Spatial differentiation and change of green production efficiency in China. Progress in Geography, 2017,36(8):1006-1014.
	[ 穆学英, 刘凯, 任建兰 . 中国绿色生产效率区域差异及空间格局演变. 地理科学进展, 2017,36(8):1006-1014.]
[19]	Ma Hailiang, Ding Yuanqin, Wang Lei . Measurement and convergence analysis of green water utilization efficiency. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017,32(3):406-417.
	[ 马海良, 丁元卿, 王蕾 . 绿色水资源利用效率的测度和收敛性分析. 自然资源学报, 2017,32(3):406-417.]
[20]	Zhang J, Chang Y, Wang C , et al. The green efficiency of industrial sectors in China: A comparative analysis based on sectoral and supply-chain quantifications. Resources Conservation & Recycling, 2017,132(5):269-277.
[21]	Ray S C, Ghose A . Production efficiency in Indian agriculture: An assessment of the post green revolution years. Omega, 2014,44(2):58-69.
[22]	Lin Boqiang, Yang Lisha . Efficiency effect of changing investment structure on China's power industry. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014,39:403-411.
[23]	Li Bin, Wu Shusheng . Effects of local and civil environmental regulation on green total factor productivity in China: A spatial Durbin econometric analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016,153:342-353.
[24]	Song Malin, Du Juntao, Tan Kimhua . Impact of fiscal decentralization on green total factor productivity. International Journal of Production Economics, 2018,205:359-367.
[25]	Zhang Jiangxue, Chang Yuan, Zhang Lixiao , et al. Do technological innovations promote urban green development? A spatial econometric analysis of 105 cities in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018,182:395-403.
[26]	Zhao X, Liu C, Yang M . The effects of environmental regulation on China's total factor productivity: An empirical study of carbon-intensive industries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018,179:325-334.
[27]	Hu Angang, Zhou Shaojie . Green development: Functional definition, mechanism analysis and development strategy. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014,24(1):14-20.
	[ 胡鞍钢, 周绍杰 . 绿色发展:功能界定、机制分析与发展战略. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014,24(1):14-20.]
[28]	Tone K . A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001,130(3):498-509.
[29]	Zhang Guojun, Huang Wanling, Zhou Chunshan , et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics of demographic distribution in China from the perspective of urban agglomeration. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(8):1513-1525.
	[ 张国俊, 黄婉玲, 周春山 , 等. 城市群视角下中国人口分布演变特征. 地理学报, 2018,73(8):1513-1525.]
[30]	Pu Yingxia, Ma Ronghua, Ge Ying , et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of Jiangsu regional convergence with spatial Markov chains approach. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005,60(5):817-826.
	[ 蒲英霞, 马荣华, 葛莹 , 等. 基于空间马尔可夫链的江苏区域趋同时空演变. 地理学报, 2005,60(5):817-826.]
[31]	Fang Chuanglin, Mao Qizhi, Ni Pengfei . Discussion on the scientific selection and development of China's urban agglomeration. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(4):515-527.
	[ 方创琳, 毛其智, 倪鹏飞 . 中国城市群科学选择与分级发展的争鸣及探索. 地理学报, 2015,70(4):515-527.]
[32]	Small and Medium-sized Cities Economic Development Committee of China Urban Economic Society. Report on the Development of Small and Medium-sized Cities in China. 2010, Green Development of Small and Medium-sized Cities. Beijing: Social Sciences Academics Press (CHINA), 2010.
	[ 中国城市经济学会中小城市经济发展委员会: 中国中小城市发展报告. 2010, 中小城市绿色发展之路. 北京社会科学文献出版社, 2010.]
[33]	Grossman G M, Krueger A B. Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 1992,8(2):223-250.
[34]	Porter M E, Claas V D L . Toward a new conception of the environment: Competitiveness relationship. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995,9(4):97-118.
[35]	Copeland B R . International trade and the environment: Policy reform in a polluted small open economy. Journal of Environmental Economics & Management, 1994,26(1):44-65.

类型	一级	二级	三级
投入	资本要素	固定资本存量	全社会固定资产投资总额
	劳动力要素	单位从业人数	年末单位从业人数
	技术要素	专利授权量	各地专利申请授权数量
	资源要素	水、土、能源消费总量	供水总量、城市建成区面积、全社会用电量
	资源要素	水、土、能源消费总量	人工和天然气供气量、液化气供应量
产出	期望产出	经济效益	国内生产总值(2005年不变价)
		社会效益	城市职工平均工资、社会消费品零售总额
		环境效益	城市绿地面积、绿地覆盖率、工业固体废物综合利用率
		环境效益	污水处理厂集中处理率、生活垃圾无害化处理率
	非期望产出	环境污染	工业废水排放量、工业SO₂排放量、工业烟尘排放量

类型		2005-2008年					2008-2009年					2009-2015年
类型		1	2	3	4		1	2	3	4		1	2	3	4
1	1	0.847	0.097	0.028	0.028		0.762	0.119	0.071	0.048		0.844	0.131	0.010	0.015
	2	0.292	0.477	0.200	0.031		0.190	0.238	0.476	0.095		0.202	0.551	0.191	0.056
	3	0.167	0.250	0.417	0.167		0.167	0.417	0.250	0.167		0.000	0.275	0.625	0.100
	4	0.111	0.111	0.222	0.556		0.222	0.000	0.000	0.778		0.034	0.052	0.190	0.724
2	1	0.674	0.304	0.022	0.000		0.357	0.500	0.071	0.071		0.805	0.161	0.011	0.023
	2	0.250	0.515	0.176	0.059		0.154		0.346	0.385		0.115	0.167		0.592	0.225	0.017
	3	0.118	0.196	0.549	0.137		0.045		0.091	0.500		0.364	0.016		0.203	0.626	0.154
	4	0.000	0.043	0.087	0.870	0.000		0.000	0.222	0.778	0.010		0.051	0.153	0.786
3	1	0.740	0.260	0.000	0.000	0.455	0.364	0.091	0.091	0.692	0.282	0.013	0.013
	2	0.280	0.480	0.200	0.040	0.176		0.294	0.471	0.059	0.130		0.652	0.174	0.043
	3	0.082	0.219	0.548	0.151	0.077		0.231	0.308	0.385	0.017		0.182	0.645	0.157
	4	0.019	0.074	0.148	0.759	0.000		0.100	0.200	0.700	0.009		0.026	0.183	0.783
4	1	0.833	0.133	0.033	0.000	0.600	0.400	0.000	0.000	0.838	0.162	0.000	0.000
	2	0.207	0.517	0.241	0.034	0.056		0.389	0.556	0.000	0.120		0.652	0.163	0.065
	3	0.049	0.246	0.557	0.148	0.000		0.111	0.500	0.389	0.010		0.286	0.480	0.224
	4	0.000	0.010	0.237	0.753	0.000		0.042	0.042	0.917	0.000		0.031	0.221	0.748

	变量	模型（1）	Z值	模型（2）	Z值	模型（3）	Z值
人文社会因素	rgdp	0.025^***	3.68			0.030^***	4.20
	rgdp²	0.013^***	3.68			0.015^***	4.20
	is	0.087^*	1.55			0.089^*	1.58
	fdi	0.007^**	2.07			0.005^*	1.50
	te	-0.439^***	-6.64			-0.453^***	-6.84
自然本底因素	temp			0.005^**	2.32	0.007^***	3.21
	pre			-0.004	-0.67	-0.001	-0.40
	eq			0.0001	0.28	0.0004	0.38
	ndvi			0.119^*	1.67	-0.027	1.01
	C	0.212^***	-3.71	0.723^***	-3.62	0.099^***	1.01
相关检验	sigma_u	0.181		0.187		0.178
	sigma_e	0.139		0.141		0.139
	rho	0.628		0.638		0.621
	似然比检验	1305.72		1262.74		1312.67

中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 11

参考文献 35

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	王武林, 王成金. 基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1105-1121.
[2]	郭付友, 佟连军, 仇方道, 李一鸣. 黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(3): 726-739.
[3]	龙花楼, 陈坤秋. 基于土地系统科学的土地利用转型与城乡融合发展[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 295-309.
[4]	廖柳文, 高晓路, 龙花楼, 汤礼莎, 陈坤秋, 马恩朴. 基于农户利用效率的平原和山区耕地利用形态比较[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 471-486.
[5]	方世敏, 黄琰. 长江经济带旅游效率与规模的时空演化及耦合协调[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1757-1772.
[6]	杨庆媛, 罗奎, 劳昕. 基于地理学视角的国际空间规划嬗变与启示[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1223-1236.
[7]	王少剑, 高爽, 黄永源, 史晨怡. 基于超效率SBM模型的中国城市碳排放绩效时空演变格局及预测[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1316-1330.
[8]	孙才志, 马奇飞, 赵良仕. 基于GWR模型的中国水资源绿色效率驱动机理[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 1022-1035.
[9]	赵成双苹, 莫多闻. 长江中游江汉—洞庭盆地全新世以来水文环境演变与人类活动[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(3): 529-543.
[10]	陆大道, 刘彦随, 方创琳, 陈明星, 王姣娥, 席建超. 人文与经济地理学的发展和展望[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(12): 2570-2592.
[11]	岳文泽, 吴桐, 刘学, 张琳琳, 吴次芳, 叶艳妹, 郑国轴. 中国大城市蔓延指数的开发[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(12): 2730-2743.
[12]	余姝辰, 王伦澈, 夏卫平, 余德清, 李长安, 贺秋华. 清末以来洞庭湖区通江湖泊的时空演变[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2346-2361.
[13]	童昀, 马勇, 刘海猛. COVID-19疫情对中国城市人口迁徙的短期影响及城市恢复力评价[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2505-2520.
[14]	刘晓琼, 吴泽洲, 刘彦随, 赵新正, 芮旸, 张健. 1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1803-1820.
[15]	王向东, 刘小茜, 裴韬, 王振波. 基于技术效率测算的京津冀城市土地集约利用潜力评价[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1853-1865.