地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (10): 2027-2044.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201910006
周亮1,2,车磊3,周成虎2
收稿日期:
2018-07-02
修回日期:
2019-06-28
出版日期:
2019-10-25
发布日期:
2019-10-29
作者简介:
周亮(1983-), 男, 甘肃天水人, 博士/博士后, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110012408), 研究方向为城市与区域可持续发展。E-mail: zhougeo@126.com
基金资助:
ZHOU Liang1,2,CHE Lei3,ZHOU Chenghu2
Received:
2018-07-02
Revised:
2019-06-28
Published:
2019-10-25
Online:
2019-10-29
Supported by:
摘要:
绿色发展作为化解自然环境约束、破解经济转型难题、支撑和实现全球可持续发展目标(SDGs)关键。正逐渐成为中国生态文明建设、美丽中国建设和全球经济转型与重构的重要指导理念。在梳理绿色发展概念与内涵基础上,采用SBM-Undesirable模型、泰尔指数和空间马尔科夫链等方法,对2005-2015年中国城市绿色发展效率时空分异特征及其演变过程进行了测度与刻画,并进一步耦合自然与人文因素定量探讨了人地关系地域系统下的影响机制。研究表明:① 2005-2015年中国城市绿色发展效率稳步提升,由0.475增加到0.523,总体提高了10%,时序上呈现“W”型波动增加的阶段性演变特征。② 中国城市绿色发展效率呈现出“东中西”阶梯状递减的区域差异规律,不同类型城市群具有“国家级>区域性>地方性”倒金字塔式集群增长特征,形成了“超大城市>特大城市>大城市>中等城市>小城市”稳定等级规模结构。③ 中国城市绿色发展效率空间集聚特征显著,高效率城市存在正向溢出效应,低效率城市则负向溢出影响,“高高集聚、高带动低”的空间俱乐部趋同现象较为凸显,不同类型城市演化存在显著的路径依赖与时空惯性。④ 人地关系地域系统视角下,人文社会因素对城市绿色发展效率影响程度大于自然本底要素,其中经济实力、产业结构、开放程度和城市气温呈现积极促进作用。
周亮, 车磊, 周成虎. 中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.
ZHOU Liang, CHE Lei, ZHOU Chenghu. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.
表2
2005-2015年城市绿色发展效率空间马尔科夫转移矩阵
类型 | 2005-2008年 | 2008-2009年 | 2009-2015年 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||
1 | 1 | 0.847 | 0.097 | 0.028 | 0.028 | 0.762 | 0.119 | 0.071 | 0.048 | 0.844 | 0.131 | 0.010 | 0.015 | ||
2 | 0.292 | 0.477 | 0.200 | 0.031 | 0.190 | 0.238 | 0.476 | 0.095 | 0.202 | 0.551 | 0.191 | 0.056 | |||
3 | 0.167 | 0.250 | 0.417 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.417 | 0.250 | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.625 | 0.100 | |||
4 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.222 | 0.556 | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.778 | 0.034 | 0.052 | 0.190 | 0.724 | |||
2 | 1 | 0.674 | 0.304 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.357 | 0.500 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.805 | 0.161 | 0.011 | 0.023 | ||
2 | 0.250 | 0.515 | 0.176 | 0.059 | 0.154 | 0.346 | 0.385 | 0.115 | 0.167 | 0.592 | 0.225 | 0.017 | |||
3 | 0.118 | 0.196 | 0.549 | 0.137 | 0.045 | 0.091 | 0.500 | 0.364 | 0.016 | 0.203 | 0.626 | 0.154 | |||
4 | 0.000 | 0.043 | 0.087 | 0.870 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.778 | 0.010 | 0.051 | 0.153 | 0.786 | |||
3 | 1 | 0.740 | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.455 | 0.364 | 0.091 | 0.091 | 0.692 | 0.282 | 0.013 | 0.013 | ||
2 | 0.280 | 0.480 | 0.200 | 0.040 | 0.176 | 0.294 | 0.471 | 0.059 | 0.130 | 0.652 | 0.174 | 0.043 | |||
3 | 0.082 | 0.219 | 0.548 | 0.151 | 0.077 | 0.231 | 0.308 | 0.385 | 0.017 | 0.182 | 0.645 | 0.157 | |||
4 | 0.019 | 0.074 | 0.148 | 0.759 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.200 | 0.700 | 0.009 | 0.026 | 0.183 | 0.783 | |||
4 | 1 | 0.833 | 0.133 | 0.033 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.838 | 0.162 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
2 | 0.207 | 0.517 | 0.241 | 0.034 | 0.056 | 0.389 | 0.556 | 0.000 | 0.120 | 0.652 | 0.163 | 0.065 | |||
3 | 0.049 | 0.246 | 0.557 | 0.148 | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.500 | 0.389 | 0.010 | 0.286 | 0.480 | 0.224 | |||
4 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.237 | 0.753 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.917 | 0.000 | 0.031 | 0.221 | 0.748 |
表3
中国城市绿色发展效率影响因素估计结果
变量 | 模型(1) | Z值 | 模型(2) | Z值 | 模型(3) | Z值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
人文社会因素 | rgdp | 0.025*** | 3.68 | 0.030*** | 4.20 | ||
rgdp2 | 0.013*** | 3.68 | 0.015*** | 4.20 | |||
is | 0.087* | 1.55 | 0.089* | 1.58 | |||
fdi | 0.007** | 2.07 | 0.005* | 1.50 | |||
te | -0.439*** | -6.64 | -0.453*** | -6.84 | |||
自然本底因素 | temp | 0.005** | 2.32 | 0.007*** | 3.21 | ||
pre | -0.004 | -0.67 | -0.001 | -0.40 | |||
eq | 0.0001 | 0.28 | 0.0004 | 0.38 | |||
ndvi | 0.119* | 1.67 | -0.027 | 1.01 | |||
C | 0.212*** | -3.71 | 0.723*** | -3.62 | 0.099*** | 1.01 | |
相关检验 | sigma_u | 0.181 | 0.187 | 0.178 | |||
sigma_e | 0.139 | 0.141 | 0.139 | ||||
rho | 0.628 | 0.638 | 0.621 | ||||
似然比检验 | 1305.72 | 1262.74 | 1312.67 |
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