地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (9): 1803-1820.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201909008

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征

刘晓琼1,2,吴泽洲2,刘彦随3,赵新正1,2,芮旸1,2,张健2,4()   

  1. 1. 陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安 710127
    2. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    4. 西北大学丝绸之路研究院,西安 710069
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-31 修回日期:2019-08-18 出版日期:2019-09-25 发布日期:2019-09-25
  • 通讯作者: 张健
  • 作者简介:刘晓琼(1977-), 女, 青海湟源人, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110009604F), 主要从事气候变化与农业生产、区域农业与农村发展研究。E-mail: xiaoqiongliu2001@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    资助项目:国家社会科学基金项目(16XGL015);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2017T100764);国家自然科学基金项目(41661042)

Spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitation from 1960 to 2015 in the Three Rivers' Headstream Region, Qinghai, China

LIU Xiaoqiong1,2,WU Zezhou2,LIU Yansui3,ZHAO Xinzheng1,2,RUI Yang1,2,ZHANG Jian2,4()   

  1. 1. The Provincial Key Laboratory of Surface System and Environment Capacity, Northwest University, Xi′an 710127, China;
    2. College of Urban and Environment, Northwest University, Xi′an 710127, China;
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4. Institute of Silk Road Studies, Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China
  • Received:2018-05-31 Revised:2019-08-18 Online:2019-09-25 Published:2019-09-25
  • Contact: ZHANG Jian
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China(16XGL015);Postdoctoral Science Foundation Special funded project of China(2017T100764);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41661042)

摘要:

青海三江源地区是中国生态系统最为敏感和脆弱的地区,其降水特别是生长季降水的波动,是影响本区及江河中下游水资源安全、生态系统可持续发展的关键因素。综合线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、BG分割算法、R/S、EEMD等多方法细致辨识了1960-2015年研究区降水量序列的时空特征。结果显示:① 三江源降水量总体呈现弱增趋势,21世纪以来降水量显著增加,各子源区气候倾向率不尽相同;② 年、季降水量自东南向西北递减,澜沧江源区夏季降水和黄河源区秋季降水呈弱减趋势,雨量弱减区在空间上呈斑块状分布;③ 年、季降水量年代际变化和增湿率的空间差异较明显,春夏季降水气候倾向率与经纬度、海拔的复相关性显著高于冬季;④ 20世纪90年代中后期,各子源区降水总体显现增强信号,并于2002年前后发生突变;⑤ 年际和低值年代际显著周期是造成降水量变动的主要因素;⑥ 除澜沧江源区夏季降水趋于减少外,其他年、季降水量变化呈现增幅不一的转湿趋势;⑦ 横向比较各子源区可见,长江源区降水变化更能表征高原气候变化。研究结果显示,研究区降水时空序列变化具有明显的区域和季节差异性特征,与以往类似研究存在些许差异,可见为有效提高气候序列演变过程及突变诊断的准确性,仍需进一步融合多方法实施集成分析。

关键词: 降水量序列, 统计特征, EEMD, 时空演变, 三江源地区

Abstract:

The Three Rivers' Headstream Region in Qinghai Province is the area with the most fragile ecosystem in China, its annual changes of the precipitation in the growing season are the key to the security of the water resources and the sustainable development of the ecosystem in the local area and the lower Lantsang River, Yellow River and Yangtze River. This paper studied the spatial-temporal characteristics of the precipitation in the Three Rivers' Headwater Region during the last 56 years by using the linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, heuristic segmentation algorithm, R/S, and EEMD et al. The results show that there is an obvious difference in the spatial-temporal characteristics of the precipitation with the variation of area and reason. The results are as follows: The precipitation series of study area showed a weak trend of getting-humid, and it increased significantly since the 21st century, the climate tendency rates of precipitation in the three sub-headwaters region are not the same; The annual and seasonal precipitation decreased from southeast to northwest, the summer precipitation of the Lantsang River Headwater Region and the autumn precipitation of the Yellow River Headwater Region decreased weakly, the areas where precipitation reduced weakly spotted in spacial distribution, the order of seasonal precipitation climate tendency rates of the Lantsang River and the Yellow River Headwater Region are spring, winter, autumn and summer precipitation, while the Yangtze River Headwater Region are spring, summer, winter and autumn precipitation(which are all positive); The decadal variation and the climate tendency rates of precipitation are more obvious; The multiple correlation coefficient between the climatic tendency rates of precipitation in spring, summer and longitude, latitude, altitude are significantly higher than that in winter; There was a wet turning signal in the middle and late 1990s, but the catastrophe point of the precipitation time series occurred around 2002; Inter-annual and low-value Inter-decadal prominent period are the main factors which caused the precipitation variation; With the exception of summer precipitation in the Lantsang River Headwater Region, the other seasonal and the annual precipitation changes showed a trend of different getting-humid; By comparison, the precipitation change in the Yangtze River Headwater Region is more representative than the other two regions in climate change of the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, it is necessary to continue the research with more characterizing methods to further improve the detection accuracy of the variation process of the characteristics of climate series.

Key words: Precipitation series, statistical characteristics, EEMD, spatial and temporal evolution, the Three Rivers' Headstream Region