地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (9): 1777-1788.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201909006
萧凌波1,闫军辉2,3
收稿日期:
2018-08-27
修回日期:
2019-07-17
出版日期:
2019-09-25
发布日期:
2019-09-25
作者简介:
萧凌波(1982-), 男, 湖北天门人, 讲师, 研究方向为历史时期气候变化及其影响。E-mail: xlingbo1@163.com
基金资助:
XIAO Lingbo1,YAN Junhui2,3
Received:
2018-08-27
Revised:
2019-07-17
Online:
2019-09-25
Published:
2019-09-25
Supported by:
摘要:
粮食作物的收成丰歉与气候要素的关联是研究历史时期气候变化社会影响的重要切入点。利用清代地方志中的收成丰歉记录,以语义差异法对收成等级进行区分,重建了1736-1911年华北地区秋粮丰收和歉收指数序列,定量分析收成变化特征及其与同期温度和降水变化的关系,并对比以往常用的官方收成分数奏报记录,探讨地方志资料在重建历史粮食收成变化中的优势和不足。结果表明:① 地方志中的歉收记录相比丰收记录更为可靠,重建的歉收指数序列可在相当程度上描述总体收成的变化,就宏观趋势而言,19世纪歉收风险相比18世纪显著增加。② 歉收指数序列与10年、5年尺度的温度变化均呈显著负相关关系,反映气候转冷可显著提升歉收风险;在年际尺度上,歉收指数序列与降水呈显著负相关,与旱灾指数序列的相关系数则达到0.71(p < 0.001),体现出极端旱灾对于华北粮食收成的严重威胁。③ 地方志中的收成记录虽在量化精度上不如奏报,但其歉收记录对于极端减产年份的反映更为准确,两者在实际应用中存在一定的互补性。以上结论有助于改进利用历史文献资料研究过去气候变化影响的技术手段,并深化气候变化对过去农业生产系统影响规律的科学认识。
萧凌波, 闫军辉. 基于地方志的1736-1911年华北秋粮丰歉指数序列重建及其与气候变化的关系[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1777-1788.
XIAO Lingbo, YAN Junhui. Reconstruction of poor/bumper autumn harvest index series based on historical chorography and its relationship with climate change in North China from 1736 to 1911[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(9): 1777-1788.
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