地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (7): 1374-1391.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201907008
熊俊楠1,2,李进1,程维明2(),周成虎2,郭良3,4,张晓蕾3,4,王楠2,李伟1
收稿日期:
2018-10-15
修回日期:
2019-05-19
出版日期:
2019-07-25
发布日期:
2019-07-23
通讯作者:
程维明
E-mail:chengwm@lreis.ac.cn
作者简介:
熊俊楠(1981-), 男, 四川南充人, 博士后, 副教授, 主要从事地理信息系统与灾害风险分析方面的研究。E-mail: neu_xjn@163.com
基金资助:
XIONG Junnan1,2,LI Jin1,CHENG Weiming2(),ZHOU Chenghu2,GUO Liang3,4,ZHANG Xiaolei3,4,WANG Nan2,LI Wei1
Received:
2018-10-15
Revised:
2019-05-19
Online:
2019-07-25
Published:
2019-07-23
Contact:
CHENG Weiming
E-mail:chengwm@lreis.ac.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
山洪灾害时空特征和影响因素是山洪评估与管理的重要内容。根据1960-2015年中国西南地区历史山洪资料,采用线性回归、标准差椭圆、空间自相关和Logistic回归模型,深入分析了西南地区山洪灾害时空分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明:① 西南地区年度山洪灾害频次呈指数增长,年际变化呈现出稳定(1960-1980年)、缓慢波动增加(1981-1998年)、快速增加(1999-2015年)3个阶段;月际特征明显,山洪主要发生在每年6-8月,尤以7月频次最高;② 西南地区山洪灾害空间差异性显著,灾害高密度区主要集中于滇中高原地区、四川盆地和周边山地单元,山洪灾害数量分布呈显著的空间正相关,空间集聚特征明显(Moran's I指数为0.127、Z = 5.784、P = 0.007);③ 西南地区历史灾害点的重心在年内存在明显的向正西方向移动的趋势,年内标准差椭圆转角均逐渐弱化,长轴逐渐变长,短轴逐渐变短;④ 降雨因子对山洪的影响度最高,人类活动因子次之,地表环境因子最低,降雨因子中1 h降雨量对山洪的影响最强,优势比值达到3.654。研究结果可为西南地区山洪灾害形成机理、监测预警研究,实施防灾减灾措施等提供科技支撑。
熊俊楠,李进,程维明,周成虎,郭良,张晓蕾,王楠,李伟. 西南地区山洪灾害时空分布特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(7): 1374-1391.
XIONG Junnan,LI Jin,CHENG Weiming,ZHOU Chenghu,GUO Liang,ZHANG Xiaolei,WANG Nan,LI Wei. Spatial-temporal distribution and the influencing factors of mountain flood disaster in southwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1374-1391.
表1
西南地区历史山洪灾害5-9月标准差椭圆参数变化"
月份 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
重心坐标 | 105°23′E | 104°26′E, | 103°45′E, | 102°41′E | 103°41′E |
27°37′N | 27°30′N | 27°45′N | 27°14′N | 28°16′N | |
移动方向 | - | 西 | 西 | 西南 | 东北 |
偏移距离(km) | 0 | 95.5 | 72.9 | 120.2 | 151.1 |
方向角度(°) | 52.534 | 50.344 | 43.683 | 36.972 | 41.331 |
长半轴(km) | 415.530 | 436.380 | 494.478 | 474.403 | 605.705 |
短半轴(km) | 275.807 | 315.182 | 302.194 | 288.856 | 227.662 |
表2
Logistic回归模型各变量参数表"
类型 | 变量 | β | S.E. | sig. | Exp(β) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
地表环境因子 | 地形起伏度 | -0.133 | 0.074 | 0.073 | 0.875 |
坡度 | -0.008 | 0.023 | 0.705 | 0.991 | |
高程标准差 | 0.102 | 0.066 | 0.120 | 1.108 | |
降雨因子 | 年均降雨量 | -0.104 | 0.035 | 0.003 | 0.901 |
M10 | -1.195 | 0.075 | 0.000 | 0.303 | |
M60 | 1.295 | 0.076 | 0.000 | 3.654 | |
H6 | 0.289 | 0.058 | 0.000 | 1.336 | |
H24 | -0.095 | 0.058 | 0.102 | 0.909 | |
人类活动因子 | GDP | 0.396 | 0.086 | 0.000 | 1.486 |
人口密度 | 0.232 | 0.040 | 0.000 | 1.262 | |
Constant | -0.788 | 0.236 | 0.001 | 0.455 |
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