地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (5): 935-947.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201905008
收稿日期:
2017-08-07
修回日期:
2019-03-31
出版日期:
2019-05-25
发布日期:
2019-05-24
通讯作者:
孙昭华
E-mail:Lnszh@126.com
作者简介:
严鑫(1993-), 女, 四川眉山人, 硕士生, 主要从事河流模拟研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
YAN Xin1,SUN Zhaohua1(),XIE Cuisong2,XIA Junqiang1
Received:
2017-08-07
Revised:
2019-03-31
Online:
2019-05-25
Published:
2019-05-24
Contact:
SUN Zhaohua
E-mail:Lnszh@126.com
Supported by:
摘要:
河口区域盐水入侵,威胁三角洲地区城市淡水资源取用及生态环境安全,合理确定压咸临界径流流量,有助于进一步改进流域水库群的调度模式。以长江口南支为例,利用2009-2014年期间60余个潮周期氯度资料,综合分析多种盐度预测经验模型的有效性,确定了抑制咸潮入侵的临界径流流量。结果表明:① 咸潮入侵强度随径流与潮差组合而不同,长江口径流流量小于30000 m 3/s时可发生盐度超标现象,69%的盐度超标天数发生在流量小于15000 m 3/s时期,当径流量小于12000 m 3/s时盐度超标几率达65%;② 盐度与潮差之间为指数型曲线关系,潮差总体呈半月周期变化,根据潮差累积频率分布得到平均意义上“连续10 d盐度超标”临界条件对应的青龙港潮差约为2.7 m,由此推算得到临界大通流量略大于11000 m 3/s;③ 采用多种盐度预测经验模型进行计算,避免连续10 d盐度超标对应的临界径流流量区间为11000~12000 m 3/s,平均阈值取为11500 m 3/s;④ 在三峡及上游梯级水库联合运行后,2008-2015年长江入海最低径流流量有所增加,但仍低于压咸潮临界阈值,建议优化水库调度模式,控制长江入海径流最低流量在11500 m 3/s以上。
严鑫,孙昭华,谢翠松,夏军强. 基于经验模型的长江口南支上段压咸临界流量[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 935-947.
YAN Xin,SUN Zhaohua,XIE Cuisong,XIA Junqiang. Estimation of critical discharge for saltwater intrusion in the upper south branch of the Yangtze River Estuary using empirical models[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 935-947.
表3
长江口南支上段严重咸潮入侵事件统计特征"
发生时间 | 监测点 | 超标天数(d) | 超标时段内大通流量均值(m3/s) | 资料来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1978年冬-1979年春 | 吴淞水厂 | 64 | 7256 | 文献[ |
1987年2-3月 | 陈行水库 | 13 | 8467 | 文献[10, 12, 19] |
1999年2-3月 | 25 | 9487 | 文献[ | |
2004年2月 | 9.8 | 9479 | 文献[ | |
2006年10月 | 9 | 14300 | 文献[ | |
2014年2月 | 19 | 10900 | 文献[ | |
2009年11月3-12日 | 东风西沙 | 10 | 14030 | 上海水务局 |
2013年11月15-24日 | 10 | 12240 | ||
2013年12月3-11日 | 9 | 12500 | ||
2013年12月17-25日 | 9 | 11356 | ||
2014年1月2-10日 | 9 | 12144 | ||
2014年1月30日-2月22日 | 24 | 11138 |
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