气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201905006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球观鸟活动的规模达到了每年几千万人次,观鸟旅游已经成为世界野生动物观赏业的重要组成部分。气候变化改变了鸟类物候期及其空间格局,这不仅会影响观鸟者的旅游活动,还会进一步对观鸟旅游利益相关者的生计产生影响。监测并尽早地识别出这些影响,提醒利益相关者采取有效的适应策略意义重大。本文引入物候期这一气候变化的“指示器”来反映开展观鸟旅游的重要资源基础——鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化。通过对1980-2010年中国26个地区的98个物候序列的鸟类研究进行荟萃分析发现：中国鸟类离开、抵达、停留时间以及鸟类栖息地的格局都已经发生了改变。春季、夏季鸟类会提前离开或抵达,但在秋季它们的活动会延迟。鸟类停留的时间主要呈现延长的趋势。温度升高会使鸟类停留时间变长,对观鸟旅游的开展有利。中国低纬度地区和西部地区鸟类停留时间更长。鸟类栖息地的格局呈现出向北和向西迁移的特征。游客和景区工作人员均已感知到鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化对观鸟旅游产生的影响。

关键词: 观鸟旅游, 气候变化, 荟萃分析, 鸟类, 中国, 物候

Abstract:

Tens of millions of people each year now engage in birdwatching activities and birdwatching tourism has become an important part of the world wildlife watching industry. Climate change has changed the phenology and distribution of birds, which will affect not only birdwatchers' tourism activities but also the livelihoods of the stakeholders in birdwatching tourism. Monitoring and identifying these effects as early as possible and encouraging stakeholders to implement effective adaptive strategies is of great significance. Climate change has adverse effects on many sectors; however, the extent of its effects on birdwatching tourism is relatively unknown. Therefore, in the present study, the relationship of phenophases-climate change indicators - with variations in the activity timing and habitat pattern of birds was assessed. These are two important aspects that can be exploited for the development of birdwatching tourism. In this milieu, a meta-analysis was conducted using ornithological research data for 98 phenological series (1980-2010) from 26 regions in China. Changes in the departure and arrival times, stay duration, and habitat pattern of birds in China were recorded. The departure and arrival of birds were determined to have advanced in spring and summer but to be delayed during autumn. In general, the stay duration of birds has increased. Furthermore, increase in temperature has resulted in longer stays, thus favouring the development of birdwatching tourism; stay duration is particularly long in the low-latitude areas and western region of China. Their habitats have shifted northward and westward. When birds migrate to places not previously used as habitats, these places become more attractive for tourism because of the presence of these new birds. Conversely, if the birds no longer migrate to places where they were previously observed, these places might lose their attractiveness in this regard. The effect of changes in the activity timing and habitat pattern of birds on the birdwatching tourism has already been perceived by tourists and working staff in scenic areas.

Key words: birdwatching tourism, climate change, meta-analysis, bird, phenophases, China

刘俊,黄莉,孙晓倩,李宁馨,张恒锦. 气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 912-922.

LIU Jun,HUANG Li,SUN Xiaoqian,LI Ningxin,ZHANG Hengjin. Impact of climate change on birdwatching tourism in China:Based on the perspective of bird phenology[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 912-922.

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类别	物候期	季节	时间序列	物种数量	地点数量	开始年份	结束年份	长度(年)
戴胜科	FC AD	春夏	1	1	1	1980	2002	23
	LC DD	秋	1	1	1	1980	2002	23
		间隔期	4	1	4	1980	2003.50±0.87	24.5±0.87
杜鹃科	FC AD	春夏	13	2	11	1988.92±6.46	2005.54±2.31	17.62±6.71
	LC DD	秋	12	2	12	1988.25±6.35	2005.42±2.36	18.17±6.73
		间隔期	15	2	14	1985.60±6.72	2004.73±2.95	19.13±18.48
鸭科	FC AD	春夏	6	2	5	1984±5	2006±2.16	23±5.23
	LC DD	秋	6	2	5	1984±5	2006±2.16	23±5.23
		间隔期	9	2	9	1982.22±4.64	2004.67±1.83	23.44±4.27
燕科	FC AD	春夏	6	1	6	1982.33±3.20	2007.17±2.41	25.83±3.80
	LC DD	秋	6	1	6	1983.33±3.20	2007.17±2.41	25.83±3.80
		间隔期	14	1	13	1981.86±3.68	2005.29±2.15	24.43±3.29
鹀科	FC AD	春夏	3	3	1	1999	2015	17
鸫科	FC AD	春夏	1	1	1	1998	2008	11
鸫科		秋	1	1	1	1998	2008	11
总数	FC AD	春夏	30	10	17	1987.63±7.5	2006.87±3.58	20.23±6.54
	LC DD	秋	26	7	17	1983.10±5.39	2004.79±2.02	22.69±5.18
		间隔期	42	6	21	1985.96±6.33	2005.92±2.49	20.96±6.68

	数量	比例(%)
春季/夏季物候期
Neg_all	28	68.29
Neg_sig	5	12.20
Neg_unk	15	36.59
Pos_all	13	31.71
Pos_sig	4	9.76
Pos_unk	6	14.63
Tr_mean	41	-2.31
秋季物候期
Neg_all	10	27.78
Neg_sig	7	19.44
Neg_unk	3	8.33
Pos_all	26	72.22
Pos_sig	6	16.67
Pos_unk	15	41.67
Tr_mean	36	1.49
停留时间
Neg_all	17	31.48
Neg_sig	6	11.11
Neg_unk	9	16.67
Pos_all	37	68.52
Pos_sig	3	5.56
Pos_unk	27	50.00
Tr_mean	54	3.78

种类	数量	平均值±标准偏差(d/10a)
春季/夏季物候
戴胜科	1	-7.956
鸫科	1	-3.85
杜鹃科	13	-4.87±7.80
鹀科	3	-1.32±2.70
鸭科	6	1.79±15.23
燕科	6	-0.16±3.97
秋季物候
戴胜科	1	5.36
鸫科	1	4.36
杜鹃科	12	2.26±14.37
鸭科	6	-1.40±8.75
燕科	6	1.73±8.67
停留时间
戴胜科	4	22.31±20.11
杜鹃科	15	6.98±19.99
鸭科	9	-0.84±14.74
燕科	14	-1.97±11.83

	数量	S_lat	S_lon	S_alt	S_int	R²
停留时间	42	-1.77^*	-1.12^**	0.04	178.73^*	0.41
春季/夏季	30	-0.16	0.09	0	-6.61	0.03
秋季	26	-0.47	-0.19	0	37.98	0.04