中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

doi:10.11821/dlxb201905002

地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (5): 857-874.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201905002

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

马丹阳^1,^2,³,尹云鹤¹(),吴绍洪¹,郑度¹

^1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
^2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
^3. 河南省发展和改革委员会,郑州 450018

收稿日期:2018-01-15 修回日期:2018-11-25 出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-24
作者简介:马丹阳(1990-), 女, 河南濮阳人, 博士生, 研究方向为自然地理综合研究。E-mail: mady. <email>13s@igsnrr.ac.cn</email>
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502904);国家自然科学基金项目(41571043);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530749)

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario

MA Danyang^1,^2,³,YIN Yunhe¹(),WU Shaohong¹,ZHENG Du¹

^1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
^2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
^3. Henan Province Development and Reform Commission, Zhengzhou 450018, China

Received:2018-01-15 Revised:2018-11-25 Published:2019-05-25 Online:2019-05-24
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502904);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571043);Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41530749)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化影响下干湿状况的区域分异格局如何变化是一个重要科学问题。基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的5个全球气候模式（GCM）,预估了RCP 8.5情景下未来百年中国干湿区面积的变化趋势,分析了干湿格局变化的敏感地区以及对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明：未来干湿格局变化以湿润区显著减少、干湿过渡区显著扩张为主要特征,特别是半湿润区面积在远期（2070-2099年）相对基准期（1981-2010年）增加了28.69%。升温2 ℃~4 ℃条件下,全国发生干湿类型转变的面积从10.17%增加至13.72%,尤其在淮河流域南部,这里主要受未来潜在蒸散增加的影响,湿润区向南明显退缩从而转变为半湿润区。总体上,随着未来升温加剧,中国干湿格局对气候变化响应的敏感性将可能增强。

关键词: 干湿格局, 气候变化, 敏感性, 干湿指数, 中国

Abstract:

Changes in the regional differentiation patterns of moisture conditions under the impact of climate change are an important scientific question. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projected the trend in the area of arid/humid climate regions in China for the next hundred years, and analysed the sensitive regions of arid/humid patterns change and its sensitivity of responses to climate change. Results show that the future arid/humid patterns change would be characterized by a significant decrease in the humid region and a significant expansion in the arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the area of sub-humid region would increase by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2 ℃ and 4 ℃ warming, the area of shifts between arid/humid climate regions was projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72%. Particularly in the south of the Huaihe River basin, which was mainly affected by the future increase in reference evapotranspiration, the humid region would retreat southward and shift to the sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China would intensify with the acceleration of global warming.

Key words: arid/humid patterns, climate change, sensitivity, aridity index, China

马丹阳, 尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 郑度. 中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.

MA Danyang, YIN Yunhe, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.

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模式名称	原始空间分辨率(纬度×经度)	机构	国家
NorESM1-M	1.875°×2.5°	Norwegian Climate Centre	挪威
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2.8°×2.8°	Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology	日本
IPSL-CM5A-LR	1.875°×3.75°	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace	法国
HadGEM2-ES	1.25°×1.875°	Met Office Hadley Centre	英国
GFDL-ESM2M	2.0°×2.5°	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory	美国

干湿区	干湿指数(AI = ET_o/P)	自然潜在植被
湿润区	AI < 1.0	森林
半湿润区	1.0 ≤ AI < 1.5	森林草原(草甸)
半干旱区	1.5 ≤ AI< 4.0	草原(草甸草原,荒漠草原)
干旱区	AI ≥ 4.0	荒漠

GCMs	时段	湿润区			半湿润区			半干旱区			干旱区
GCMs	时段	面积	变化		面积	变化		面积	变化		面积	变化
	1981-2010	35.76			13.94			24.61			25.69
NorESM1-M	2040-2069	32.78	-8.33		15.27	9.54		26.65	8.29		25.29	-1.56
NorESM1-M	2070-2099	31.47	-12		16.26			16.64	26.04			5.81	26.23	2.1
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2040-2069	32.13	-10.15		16.24	16.5		27.62	12.23		24.01	-6.54
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2070-2099	32.75	-8.42		17.02			22.09	26.8			8.9	23.43	-8.8
IPSL-CM5A-LR	2040-2069	35.37	-1.09		16.35	17.29		22.33	-9.26		25.95	1.01
IPSL-CM5A-LR	2070-2099	30.18	-15.6		18.87			35.37	23.14			-5.97	27.81	8.25
HadGEM2-ES	2040-2069	34.45	-3.66	17.15	23.03	21.67	-11.95	26.74	4.09
HadGEM2-ES	2070-2099	33.97	-5.01	18.71		34.22	21.54		-12.47	25.78		0.35
GFDL-ESM2M	2040-2069	34.15	-4.5	17.14	22.96	26.15	6.26	22.56	-12.18
GFDL-ESM2M	2070-2099	30.26	-15.38	20.03		43.69	26.13		6.18	23.57		-8.25
多模式平均	2040-2069	33.64	-5.93	16.21	16.28	24.95	1.38	25.19	-1.95
多模式平均	2070-2099	31.25	-12.61	17.94		28.69	24.98		1.5	25.83		0.54

GCMs		2 °C					4 °C
GCMs		湿润	半湿润	半干旱	干旱		湿润	半湿润	半干旱	干旱
NorESM1-M	扩张区	0.47	3.61	3.26	0.73		0.72	6.28	4.84	1.10
	收缩区	3.23	2.54	1.19	1.09		5.05	4.07	2.38	1.44
	总变化	8.06					12.93
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	扩张区	0.87	8.05	4.24	0.13		1.64	8.33	4.92	0.54
	收缩区	6.61	2.84	1.68	2.17		6.15		4.06	2.64	2.57
	总变化	13.29					15.42
IPSL-CM5A-LR	扩张区	1.59	3.75	2.25	2.55		3.17	7.00	2.63	1.61
	收缩区	2.50	2.89	3.85	0.90		2.95		3.63	5.74	2.10
	总变化	10.13				14.41
HadGEM2-ES	扩张区	1.23	4.97	3.35	1.24	1.22	7.81	3.41	1.58
	收缩区	3.57	3.68	2.69	0.86	4.08		3.33	5.32	1.30
	总变化	10.79				14.03
GFDL-ESM2M	扩张区	1.12	2.72	3.50	1.21	0.58	5.62	4.70	0.88
	收缩区	1.87	2.04	2.00	2.64	5.08		3.05	1.34	2.32
	总变化	8.55				11.78
多模式平均	扩张区	1.06	4.62	3.32	1.17	1.47	7.01	4.10	1.14
	收缩区	3.56	2.80	2.28	1.53	4.66		3.63	3.48	1.94
	总变化	10.17				13.72

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario

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