地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (4): 664-680.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201904004
王超1(), 阚瑷珂2(
), 曾业隆3, 李国庆4, 王民1, 次仁5
收稿日期:
2017-08-31
修回日期:
2019-03-11
出版日期:
2019-04-25
发布日期:
2019-04-23
作者简介:
作者简介:王超(1992-), 女, 山西晋城人, 硕士生, 研究方向为区域可持续发展。E-mail:
基金资助:
Chao WANG1(), Aike KAN2(
), Yelong ZENG3, Guoqing LI4, Min WANG1, Ren CI5
Received:
2017-08-31
Revised:
2019-03-11
Published:
2019-04-25
Online:
2019-04-23
Supported by:
摘要:
在乡镇尺度下厘清人口分布格局及其影响因素与区域差异,对在生态脆弱区制定可持续发展政策具有重大指导意义。基于2010年西藏自治区的乡镇尺度人口普查数据,提取人口密度和空间因子,利用空间统计方法分析了人口分布的疏密特征和集聚特征,对比运用多元线性回归方法和随机森林回归方法探索该地区人口分布的影响因素及其区域差异。结果表明:① 西藏乡镇人口密度在空间上表现出极强的非均衡性,其总体趋势是东南高西北低,高密度区与大江大河及主要交通干线具有较强的空间耦合性;② 大致以波绒乡(聂拉木县)—岗尼乡(安多县)为西藏的人口分界线,人口集聚的“核心—边缘”特征明显;③ 多元线性回归方法中,人造地表指数对人口分布的影响程度最大,随后依次为夜间灯光指数和路网密度;④ 利用随机森林方法进行的人口密度预测比多元线性回归方法精度高,可以用来对影响因子的重要性进行排序;排序在前六位的影响因子由高到低依次为夜间灯光指数、人造地表指数、路网密度、工业总产值、GDP和多年平均气温,它们与人口密度均呈正相关关系;地形地貌要素中以海拔和坡度的贡献率最大且与人口密度均呈负相关关系;⑤ 西藏人口分布格局的影响因素及其相互作用呈现出明显的区域差异特征,河谷是西藏地区人口的集聚区,主要分布在拉萨河谷、年楚河谷以及三江河谷;⑥ 通过随机森林回归分析,可以利用概念模型来表达人口分布影响因素,将主导因素概括为土地利用结构、道路通达度及城镇化水平。
王超, 阚瑷珂, 曾业隆, 李国庆, 王民, 次仁. 基于随机森林模型的西藏人口分布格局及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(4): 664-680.
Chao WANG, Aike KAN, Yelong ZENG, Guoqing LI, Min WANG, Ren CI. Population distribution pattern and influencing factors in Tibet based on random forest model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(4): 664-680.
表1
影响人口分布的因素
影响因素 | 影响因子 | 描述 |
---|---|---|
地形地貌(A) | 海拔(A1) | 地形地貌是影响人口分布的最基本因素之一:随着海拔高度的增加,地形起伏度呈现逐渐升高趋势,人口也随之减少[ |
坡度(A2) | ||
坡向(A3) | ||
地形起伏度(A4) | ||
气候(B) | 多年平均降雨量(B1) | 人类对不同水热条件影响下的资源和环境条件具有选择偏好,在较广的范围内,人口密度与气温、降水量呈显著的正相关关系[ |
多年平均气温(B2) | ||
植被覆盖(C) | NDVI(C) | 以NDVI为代表的植被指数能反映植被覆盖情况,一方面显示了人类生产生活所依赖的植被资源分布,另一方面则展示了不适宜居住区的空间分布(如沙漠和密林)[ |
土地利用(D) | 土地利用指数(Dn) | 根据“无土地则无人口”原则,人口分布受特定的土地利用类型影响,且土地利用面积与人口分布具有强相关性[ |
河流(E) | 河网密度(E1) | 河流一方面为人们提供充足而稳定的水源,另一方面造就沿岸地势低平、土壤肥沃的格局,为人们居住生活、基础设施建设和发展生产提供适宜的空间[ |
距河流距离(E2) | ||
道路(F) | 路网密度(F1) | 基于交通条件的区域可达性与人口分布关系密切,该因素对欠发达地区人口集聚所起的作用远大于发达地区[ |
距道路距离(F2) | ||
经济发展(G) | 夜间灯光指数(G1) | 夜间灯光亮度是城镇化的一个解释性指标,能反映城镇化水平,根据灯光影像的亮度值和人口距离衰减定律可以估算人口总数和人口分布[ |
GDP(G2) | ||
工业总产值(G3) | ||
农林牧渔业 产值(G4) |
表2
西藏不同人口密度分级的乡镇人口总数与面积
人口密度分级(人/km2) | 统计单元个数(个) | 总人口(人) | 人口占比(%) | 总面积(km2) | 面积占比(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0~1 | 102 | 235880 | 7.86 | 768471 | 63.82 |
1~4 | 189 | 550149 | 18.33 | 244664 | 20.32 |
4~7 | 115 | 482070 | 16.06 | 91516 | 7.60 |
7~10 | 75 | 378282 | 12.60 | 45631 | 3.79 |
10~40 | 126 | 870345 | 28.99 | 51935 | 4.31 |
40~70 | 7 | 43936 | 1.46 | 918 | 0.08 |
70~100 | 1 | 6621 | 0.22 | 74 | 0.01 |
100~400 | 6 | 142181 | 4.74 | 722 | 0.06 |
400~700 | 2 | 93542 | 3.12 | 172 | 0.01 |
>700 | 1 | 199159 | 6.63 | 68 | 0.01 |
表3
人口分布与各影响因子的相关系数
影响因子 | 序号 | 与人口密度相关系数 | 与人口总数相关系数 | 相关系数平均值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
海拔 | A1 | -0.137** | -0.172** | -0.155 |
坡度 | A2 | -0.058 | -0.058 | - |
坡向 | A3 | 0.013 | 0.016 | - |
地形起伏度 | A4 | -0.043 | -0.058 | - |
多年平均降雨量 | B1 | -0.057 | -0.02 | - |
多年平均气温 | B2 | 0.171** | 0.197** | 0.184 |
NDVI | C | -0.001 | 0.047 | - |
冰川和永久积雪指数 | D1 | -0.044 | -0.047 | - |
草地指数 | D2 | -0.043 | -0.008 | - |
耕地指数 | D3 | 0.078 | 0.088* | - |
灌木指数 | D4 | 0.067 | 0.049 | - |
裸地指数 | D5 | -0.05 | -0.100* | - |
人造地表指数 | D6 | 0.942** | 0.810** | 0.876 |
森林指数 | D7 | -0.025 | -0.009 | - |
湿地指数 | D8 | -0.015 | -0.02 | - |
水体指数 | D9 | -0.023 | -0.021 | - |
苔原指数 | D10 | -0.005 | 0.072 | - |
河网密度 | E1 | 0.498** | 0.437** | 0.468 |
距河流距离 | E2 | -0.045 | -0.071 | - |
路网密度 | F1 | 0.664** | 0.630** | 0.647 |
距道路距离 | F2 | -0.048 | -0.089* | - |
夜间灯光指数 | G1 | 0.902** | 0.792** | 0.847 |
GDP | G2 | 0.398** | 0.490** | 0.444 |
工业总产值 | G3 | 0.453** | 0.452** | 0.453 |
农林牧渔业产值 | G4 | 0.036 | 0.327** | - |
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