地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (10): 1985-2000.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201810012

• 产业布局与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀地区经济增长的时空分异与影响因素

张学波1(),于伟1,张亚利2,宋金平3(),王振波4   

  1. 1. 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照 276800
    2. 枣庄学院旅游与资源环境学院,枣庄 277160
    3. 北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
    4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-13 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590842);国家自然科学基金项目(41771181, 41271132);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433008)

Spatio-temporal differentiation and its influencing factors of regional economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

ZHANG Xuebo1(),YU Wei1,ZHANG Yali2,SONG Jinping3(),WANG Zhenbo4   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, Shandong, China
    2. School of Tourism and Resource Environment, Zaozhuang University, Zaozhuang 277160, Shandong, China
    3. Faculty of Geography Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2017-03-13 Published:2018-10-25 Online:2018-10-25
  • Supported by:
    Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71433008;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41771181, No.41271132;Major Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41590842

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摘要：

空间结构视角下的典型地区内部经济增长时空分异是近年来学界持续探讨和研究的重要议题。基于构建的地区经济增长时空分异研究的理论框架,针对京津冀地区核心—外围结构的3类地区,将地区经济增长与经济水平指标相结合,使用相关统计变量、地统计分析方法以及面板多元回归模型对京津冀地区1994-2014年经济增长的空间分异及近阶段的影响因素进行了探究。结果表明：① 京津冀地区经济增速往往伴随着经济总差异的扩张;地区分组组间差异是总差异的主体成分;地区分组组间差异和京津冀地区经济总差异呈扩张趋势。② 京津冀地区经济增长的空间分异可划分为经济增长空间扩散—地区差异总体收敛、经济增速减缓且空间集聚—地区总差异扩张、经济波动增速并空间扩散—总差异波动上升、经济增速减缓并再次空间集聚—地区经济差异波动缓慢增加等4个阶段。③ 当前,经济增长的空间辐射主要表现为一级核心地区对邻近二级核心地区的带动作用,向外围地区的扩散尚弱。④ 核心与外围不同类型地区的参数估计存在显著差异,这体现了不同类型地区经济结构的梯度差距。

关键词: 经济增长, 时空分异, 影响因素, 京津冀

Abstract:

Spatio-temporal differentiation of regional economic growth viewed from inner functional structure in a typical area is a hot research topic in economic geography in recent years. Based on the core-peripheral theory and the creative methodology framework, we identified the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region into the first central group, the secondary central group and peripheral group, and then displayed the evolution of spatio-temporal differentiation of regional economic growth and disparities in the region from 1994 to 2014 using some indexes which can represent regional economic growth and economic level respectively supported by some statistical indictors and geostatistical analysis methods. The results indicated that there was a positive correlation between accelerating economic growth and widening economic disparities, and the inter-group differences become the main portion of the widening disparities after 2001 in the BTH region. The evolution of spatial differentiation can be divided into four stages according to the characteristics of overall regional economic growth and spatial distribution. In the first stage, economic growth dispersed from the core to peripheral areas. The differences include the intra-group differences, the inter-group differences, and the differences decreased. During the second stage, the economic growth slowed down and clustered in core areas, which resulted in an increase in economic disparities. In the third stage, the overall economic growth rate of the BTH region rose but fluctuated, and the high-speed economic growing regions were mainly distributed surrounding the core. In the last stage, the average economic growth rate declined and the high-speed economic growing regions returned to the core. In summary, the peripheral areas have not yet received the steady and robust driving force emitted from the core. After that, some factors influencing economic growth of three types of groups were estimated in a constructive multiple linear regression model. The coefficient estimates of variables indicated a significant gradient which reflected the gradient of economic structure and economic level among the three groups.

Key words: economic growth, spatio-temporal differentiation, influencing factor, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region