地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (10): 1865-1879.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201810004

所属专题: 人口与城市研究

• 城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国人口与土地城镇化时空耦合特征及驱动机制

吴一凡1(),刘彦随1,2(),李裕瑞2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-05 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0504701)

Spatio-temporal coupling of demographic-landscape urbanization and its driving forces in China

WU Yifan1(),LIU Yansui1,2(),LI Yurui2   

  1. 1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2017-09-05 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-10-25
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program, No.2017YFC0504701

摘要:

城镇化是现代化的必然趋势,城镇人口与土地利用的合理匹配成为新型城镇化的重要前提。本文以中国636个建制市为研究对象,构建了人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合发展关系指数,据此划分其耦合类型。借助Kernel Density工具,分析了中国城镇化发展的宏观格局、人口与土地城镇化耦合变化态势,诠释了这些耦合特征形成的原因及其内在驱动机制。结果表明:① 2006-2014年中国城市建设用地年均增长率是城镇常住人口年均增长率的1.65倍,土地城镇化远快于人口城镇化;② 市域人口与土地城镇化发展的空间依赖性较强,人口向城市集聚的密度重心呈现逐渐西移的趋势;③ 城市建成区快速扩展,城市人均建设用地面积普遍超标,其中42%的城市现状人均用地是标准值的5倍以上;④ 人口与土地城镇化耦合失调类型的城市空间分布相对集中,且“同增失调”现象较为普遍,主要城市群外围地区的失调问题较中心地区更为严重;⑤ 人口与土地城镇化耦合发展程度受到经济发展水平、城市性质、人口规模、政府决策行为、地理区位条件和地区内部差距等要素的综合影响,不同要素的作用机理和效应存在明显差异。新时期城镇人口与土地利用管理应当注重新常态、新趋势的系统诊断和动能转化的综合分析,为新型城镇化、城乡融合发展与乡村振兴决策提供科学依据。

关键词: 城镇化, 城乡融合, 土地利用, 人地耦合, 乡村振兴, 中国

Abstract:

Urbanization is an inevitable trend of modernization and the fundamental transition in socioeconomic structure, human production and life style. China is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented urbanization process, and has achieved the short-term goals that European and American countries attained in the past decades or even centuries ago. This kind of rapid expansion has inevitably led to a serious imbalance between urban land expansion and urban population growth. We used the demographic-landscape urbanization coupling relationship index (ratio of the annual average growth rate of demographic permanent population and urban development land) to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics of demographic-landscape urbanization coupling situation, and further explain its driving forces during the past decade in China. All analyses, based on the demographic statistics and landscape dataset of 636 cities in China, aimed to identify and diagnose six coupling types. Furthermore, we made the macro pattern of urbanization development level more visible with the help of Kernel Density spatial analysis tool. Results show that: (1) Over the past decade, the average annual growth rate of urban development land in China was 1.65 times that of the urban population, and demographic-landscape urbanization coupling situation was poorly coordinated. (2) We found that there is a spatial dependency between demographic urbanization and landscape urbanization. Moreover, the spatial agglomeration center of high-density urban population showed a gradual westward moving trend. Meanwhile, urbanization development mode shifted from "land lag" to "population lag". (3) Generally, the area of per capita urban development land has exceeded the standard threshold; and 41.96% of the cities currently have a development land area per capita more than five times of the ideal value. (4) The proportion of three coordination types was 73.25%, which is much higher than that of three incoordination types (26.75%). Among them, "Both Growth and Uncoordinated Type" took the largest proportion of 43.27%, which reflects the uncoordinated relationship between demographic urbanization and landscape urbanization. This situation will continue or even is intensified in the years to come. Additionally, the cities located at the edge of urban agglomeration seemed to be more uncoordinated than cities at the center. This is probably because that the cities at the edge of urban agglomeration, which had a small population and low property price, relied more on the "land finance" to earn their main source of urban economic income. (5) Economic development level, population size, governmental decision-making behaviors, geographical location and regional disparity were all driving factors of demographic-landscape urbanization. In addition, there are few obvious differences in the mechanism and effect of these factors. To sum up, urban population and land use management in the new era should get more attention according to the new trend in system diagnosis and comprehensive analysis, thus to provide a scientific basis in development decision for new urbanization and urban-rural integration strategy as well as the rural revitalization strategy.

Key words: urbanization, urban-rural integration, land use, man-land coupling, rural revitalization, China