地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (8): 1513-1525.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201808009

所属专题: 人口与城市研究

• 城市与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市群视角下中国人口分布演变特征

张国俊1(),黄婉玲2,周春山2(),曹永旺2   

  1. 1. 广东财经大学公共管理学院,广州 510320
    2.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-03 出版日期:2018-08-15 发布日期:2018-07-31
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(17BRK010)

Spatio-temporal characteristics of demographic distribution in China from the perspective of urban agglomeration

ZHANG Guojun1(),HUANG Wanling2,ZHOU Chunshan2(),CAO Yongwang2   

  1. 1. Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
    2. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
  • Received:2018-04-03 Online:2018-08-15 Published:2018-07-31
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China, No.17BRK010

摘要:

以“十三五”提及的19个城市群为研究对象,采用第五、第六次全国人口普查的常住人口数据,引入重心模型、空间自相关、泰尔指数等研究方法,从城市群视角分析中国人口分布的演变特征。结果表明:① 2000-2010年中国城市人口密度、自然增长率、流动人口、常住人口的空间演变与城市群的分布、发展密切关联;全国常住人口的空间分布重心朝东南方向移动;城市群是全国人口密度和人口总量增长的高值区,是人口自然增长率的低值区;全国集聚或扩散的人口流量较大的城市主要位于城市群内。② 10年间城市群内外地区的人口密度差异均呈扩大趋势,城市群的发展使人口大量流入城市群或其核心城市,城市群内的人口分布不均衡程度加剧,成为全国人口密度差异进一步扩大的主要原因。③ 中国城市群发展水平差异较大,处在不同发展水平的城市群表现出不同的人口集聚和扩散效应;处于发展水平较高的城市群主要位于东部沿海人口稠密地区,对人口有较强的吸引力,人口呈现总体集聚的特征,且逐步形成一定的等级结构。人口较稀疏的中西部地区的城市群大多仍处于发展水平较低阶段,对人口的吸引力较弱,人口呈现核心集聚边缘扩散的特征,城市体系结构尚未稳定。

关键词: 城市群, 人口分布, 发展水平, 泰尔指数, 中国

Abstract:

The spatio-temporal characteristics of demographic distribution in China from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed systematically from the perspective of urban agglomeration, using the methods of barycenter model, spatial autocorrelation and Theil index. The 19 urban agglomerations mentioned in the country's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) are studied in this paper. Results show that the distribution center of permanent population is moving further towards the southeast where developed urban agglomerations are concentrated. Urban agglomeration is a high value area of population density and population growth, but a low value area of natural population growth. Urban agglomeration is also the most active area of China's population flow, and the effect of population space agglomeration and diffusion is also remarkable. The spatial distribution pattern of China's population is closely related to the distribution and development of urban agglomerations. Meanwhile, the development of urban agglomerations has brought a large population into urban agglomeration or its core cities, and the distribution of population in urban agglomeration has increased significantly. Because of the attraction effect of urban agglomeration on population, the geographical difference of population density in China is further expanded. The development level of urban agglomeration in China is very different, and the urban agglomeration in different stages of development show different effects of population agglomeration and diffusion. Urban agglomerations in stage of the higher development degree, mainly located in eastern coastal densely populated areas, are featured by strong demographic attractiveness, and overall population agglomeration, hence gradually form a hierarchy. At the same time, urban agglomerations in stage of the lower development degree are mainly distributed in the central and western regions, where the population is sparse, with the city being less appealing to population. These urban agglomerations present the core edge diffusion characteristic, and the urban system structure is not stable yet.

Key words: urban agglomeration, demographic distribution, development degree, Theil Index, China