地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (7): 1309-1323.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201807010

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

中亚天山山区冰雪变化及其对区域水资源的影响

邓海军1,2,3,4,陈亚宁2   

  1. 1. 福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州 350007
    2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830011
    3. 湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福州 350007
    4. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-31 出版日期:2018-07-25 发布日期:2018-07-13
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41630859, 41471030)

The glacier and snow variations and their impact on water resources in mountain regions: A case study in Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia

DENG Haijun1,2,3,4,CHEN Yaning2   

  1. 1. Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters, Fuzhou 350007
    2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    3. State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology, Fuzhou 350007, China
    4. College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
  • Received:2017-08-31 Online:2018-07-25 Published:2018-07-13
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41630859, No.41471030

摘要:

冰川和积雪是构成山区固体水库的主体,对区域水资源稳定性具有调节功能,但深受气候变化的影响。以中亚天山为研究区域,基于长时间序列的观测数据,分别从冰川、积雪、水储量、径流等方面进行分析,并选取阿克苏河、开都河及乌鲁木齐河3个典型流域,研究天山山区冰雪变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明:① 冰川退缩速率与面积的函数关系为fx) = -0.53×x-0.15R2 = 0.42,RMSE = 0.086),说明小型冰川对气候变化的响应更为敏感。同时,中低海拔区域的冰川退缩速率大于高海拔区域;② 2003-2015年天山山区水储量的递减速率为-0.7±1.53 cm/a,天山中部区域的递减速率最大,这一结果与该区域冰川急剧退缩相吻合;③ 近半个多世纪以来,冰雪融水径流增加是这3个典型流域径流量增加的主要原因,其中阿克苏河增幅最大(达0.4×108 m3/a)。但自20世纪90年代中期以来,3个流域的径流量都呈减少趋势,与流域内冰川面积减少、厚度变薄及平衡线海拔升高的关系密切。研究结果揭示了气候变化驱动下的山区固态水体储量变化对流域水资源的影响机制,以期为流域水资源管理提供有价值的决策参考。

关键词: 气候变化, 冰雪, 水资源, 冰冻圈, 天山

Abstract:

Strongly impacted by climate change, glacier and snow, as major parts of solid reservoirs in mountains, can regulate the local water sources. This study uses glacier and snow datasets to analyze the variations of glaciers, snow, water storage, and runoff in the Tianshan Mountains, and selects three typical river basins (Aksu River, Kaidu River, and Urumqi River) to interpret the impact of glacier and snow changes on regional water resources in this region. Results indicate that: (1) the functional relationship between glaciers retreat and glaciers area is f(x) = -0.53×x-0.15 (R2 = 0.42, RMSE = 0.086), and small glacier retreat is more sensitive under climate change. Meanwhile, glacier retreat rate at the low-middle elevation bands is faster than that of the high elevation band; (2) the decreasing rate of regional average total water storage (TWS) is -0.7±1.53 cm/a in the study area during 2003-2015. The maximum of TWS deficit region was mainly observed in the central part of the mountains, which is closely related with accelerated glacier retreats; (3) during the past half century, the increased melting of glacier and snow melt led to a runoff increase in the three typical river basins, especially in the Aksu river basin (0.4×108 m3/a). The area decreasing, thinning, and rising equilibrium line altitude (ELV) of glaciers are the major factor contributing to the decreasing trend of runoff in the three river basins since the mid-1990s. Therefore, results revealed that the mechanism of influence of solid water reserves reduction in mountains on regional water resources under climate change, and also provided references for water resources management in the mountainous river basin.

Key words: climate change, glacier and snow, water resources, cryosphere, Tianshan Mountains