地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (5): 945-956.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201805013

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黄河中游多沙粗沙区水沙变化趋势及其主控因素的贡献率

孙倩1(),于坤霞1(),李占斌1,2,李鹏1,张晓明3,龚珺夫1   

  1. 1. 西安理工大学 西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室, 西安 710048
    2. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌 712100
    3. 中国水利水电科学研究院泥沙所 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100048
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-26 出版日期:2018-05-03 发布日期:2018-05-03
  • 基金资助:
    项目名称:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402407);国家自然科学基金青年项目(51509203);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330858)

The trends of streamflow and sediment and their driving factors in the middle reaches of the Yellow River

SUN Qian1(),YU Kunxia1(),LI Zhanbin1,2,LI Peng1,ZHANG Xiaoming3,GONG Junfu1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology of MOE, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dry-land Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
    3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China
  • Received:2017-05-26 Online:2018-05-03 Published:2018-05-03
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2016YFC04 02407;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.51509203, No.41330858

摘要:

随着气候变化和人类活动影响加剧,黄河中游多沙粗沙区的水沙变化剧烈,因此研究影响黄河中游多沙粗沙区径流量和输沙量的驱动因素对预测未来水沙变化具有重要意义。本文选取Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,Pettitt突变点检验法,位置、尺度、形状的广义可加模型以及累积量斜率变化率比较法对黄河中游多沙粗沙区15个水文站控制流域1956-2010年的年降水量、年径流量以及年输沙量变化特征及其贡献率进行分析,确定影响黄河中游多沙粗沙区径流量和输沙量变化的主要原因。结果表明:① Mann-Kendall趋势检验在5%的显著性水平下,表明降水量虽呈减少趋势但并不显著,径流量和输沙量则有显著的减少趋势;② Pettitt突变点检验得出所研究区域径流量和输沙量的突变年份在1972年、1985年以及1996年左右;③ GAMLSS模型分析结果同样表明降水的均值不随时间发生变化,但降水的方差有减小的趋势;④ 通过累积量斜率变化率比较法得出,人类活动对窟野河流域径流输沙的影响大于无定河流域。通过分析黄河中游多沙粗沙区径流量和输沙量变化的原因,可为黄河中游多沙粗沙区水资源合理分配提供一定的理论支持。

关键词: 黄河中游多沙粗沙区, 水沙变化特征, GAMLSS模型, 累积量斜率变化率比较法

Abstract:

As streamflow and sediment of the coarse sand area in the middle reaches of the Yellow River have experienced considerable change under the background of climate change and intensified human activities in recent years, it is of great importance to conduct research on their driving factors to predict future streamflow and sediment discharge of the Yellow River. We used annual precipitation, annual streamflow volume, and annual sediment discharge data from 15 hydrological stations located in the coarse sand area of the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2010. The Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt change point test, generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape model (GAMLSS), and comparison of cumulative slope change rate were applied to analyze the variation characteristics of these hydrological variables and to determine the driving factors of annual streamflow volume and annual sediment discharge. The results of the analyses are as follows: (1) The Mann-Kendall trend tests showed that annual precipitation demonstrated a non-significant decreasing trend at the 5% significance level, whereas annual streamflow volume and sediment discharge exhibited significant decreasing trends in the study area; (2) The Pettitt change point tests showed that the abrupt change of time-points for annual streamflow volume and sediment discharge occurred around 1972, 1985, and 1996; (3) The GAMLSS results indicated that the mean values of annual precipitation did not change with time, but the variance of annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend in all study areas; (4) The comparison of cumulative slope change rate showed that the influences of human activities on annual streamflow volume and sediment discharge were greater in the Kuye River basin than that in the Wuding River basin. Analyzing the driving factors of changes in annual streamflow volume and sediment discharge provides theoretical support for the rational allocation of water resources in the coarse sand area of the middle reaches of the Yellow River.

Key words: coarse sand area, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, variation of streamflow and sediment, GAMLSS model, comparison of cumulative slope change rate