中国气象农业非参数化综合干旱监测及其适用性

doi:10.11821/dlxb201801006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

旱灾是对人类社会影响以及致损最大的灾种之一,如何进行可靠的旱灾监测是旱灾预警与旱灾防灾减灾的关键。气象干旱与农业干旱的综合干旱方法是目前干旱监测的主要方法之一。本文对多变量标准化干旱指数（MSDI）方法进行改进,以非参数化的方法计算标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）、标准化土壤湿度指数（SSI）,提出改进的MSDI,即气象农业综合干旱指标（MMSDI）。在此基础上,用1979-2015年中国降水资料、蒸散发资料以及土壤湿度数据对不同时间尺度（3月尺度与6月尺度）分别研究气象干旱、农业干旱、气象农业综合干旱,用气象农业综合干旱分别与气象干旱、农业干旱和改进之前的气象农业综合干旱对比,并结合实际记录的干旱事件时空特征验证,结果证实MMSDI指数可以同时监测气象与农业干旱,且其监测结果准确度高于单一变量的气象（SPEI）或农业（SSI）干旱监测,MMSDI指数对气象农业综合干旱具有更好的监测效果,可考虑作为中国气象农业综合干旱监测及旱灾预警的重要理论依据。

关键词: 干旱监测, 气象农业综合干旱, 土壤湿度, 降尺度, 非参数化

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most catastrophic natural hazards which have severe impacts on human society and yet it is the least understood hazard. Monitoring drought in a reliable way plays a critical role in the early warning as well as the mitigation of drought hazard. Generally, the integrated agro-meteorological drought monitoring is one of the most popular drought monitoring methods and it is the key step to mitigate droughts effectively. However, the originally developed integrated drought monitoring index included nothing about evapotranspiration, and it does perform not well in reflecting impacts of evapotranspiration on occurrence of droughts. In this case, this study attempted to propose an improved version of the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSI), i.e. modified multivariate standardized drought index (MMSDI). Based on the statistical records of drought-affected crop area in 7 geographical zones across China, this study tests the applicability of MMSDI in drought monitoring across China in 3-month and 6-month time scales, with comparison to the meteorological drought monitored by SPEI, agricultural drought monitored by SSI and integrated agro-meteorological drought monitored by MSDI. The result indicates that MMSDI can monitor meteorological drought and agricultural drought simultaneously. Furthermore, MMSDI has greater superiority than SPEI, SSI and MSDI in the veracity of drought monitoring. Besides, MMSDI can monitor droughts in bad conditions where meteorological drought and agricultural drought monitoring technique cannot be applied. Moreover, MSDI tends to overestimate the drought intensity and the size of drought-affected regions across China. In sum, MMSDI proposed in this study can be used to monitor and detect drought conditions in a more accurate way from perspectives of meteorological drought and agricultural drought. Meanwhile, drought conditions monitored by MMSDI are very close to in-situ observations and to the real-world observations of droughts in terms of drought-affected regions and related losses. In this sense, this study provides a theoretical foundation for large-scale drought monitoring across China, and provides practical regional case studies for related research in other regions of the world.

Key words: drought monitoring, integrated agro-meteorological drought, soil moisture, downscaling, nonparametric drought monitoring method

李勤,张强,黄庆忠,史培军. 中国气象农业非参数化综合干旱监测及其适用性[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(1): 67-80.

LI Qin,ZHANG Qiang,HUANG Qingzhong,SHI Peijun. Nonparametric integrated agro-meteorological drought monitoring in China: New monitoring technique and applicability[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(1): 67-80.

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