地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (1): 3-12.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201801001

• 气候变化 •    下一篇

2016-2060年欧美中印CO2排放变化模拟及其与INDCs的比较

葛全胜1,2(),刘洋1,2,王芳1,郑景云1,2()   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-05 出版日期:2018-01-31 发布日期:2018-01-31
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602704);国家自然科学基金项目(41771050);科技部改革发展专项“巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”

Simulated CO2 emissions from 2016-2060 with comparison to INDCs for EU, US, China and India

GE Quansheng1,2(),LIU Yang1,2,WANG Fang1,ZHENG Jingyun1,2()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-03-05 Online:2018-01-31 Published:2018-01-31
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2016YFA0602704;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41771050;Reform and Development Research Program of Ministry of Science and Technology "Imperative and significant problems to addressing climate change after Paris Conference"

摘要:

研究各国在未来政策实施下温室气体排放量变化,对比其与国家自主贡献预案(INDCs)承诺目标的差别,对促进各国继续提高温室气体减排力度、加强国际合作,实现全球应对气候变化的长期目标有重要意义。基于最新的各国经济和能源数据,构建了化石能源CO2排放的动态模型,通过设置“延续”和“规划”两类情景,模拟了欧盟、美国、中国、印度2016-2060年的CO2排放量变化,并与各自的INDCs进行了对比。结果显示:① 中国在全部实现既有政策规划的前提下,将于2030年达到CO2排放峰值,约11277±643 Mt CO2,比延续过往发展趋势的情景提前10年达峰,峰值降低接近3000 Mt CO2;2030年单位GDP碳强度比2005年下降约63.6%,一次能源消耗中非化石能源占比约24.7%,能够实现中国提出的INDC目标。② 在全部实现既有政策规划的前提下,欧盟和美国CO2排放量有明显下降,印度CO2排放增速将明显放缓,欧盟和印度基本可以实现INDCs的最低要求,但美国与其最低承诺目标尚有差距。③ 各国INDCs目标均有力度,其中以中国和美国最为突出。但要在INDCs目标基础上,更进一步减缓全球增暖,确保21世纪末气温上升幅度低于2 ℃甚至1.5 ℃,发达国家需进一步推进减排举措、技术、资金等的落实,包括带头推进碳捕获与封存技术,以尽早实现CO2排放负增长,并对发展中国家提供资金和技术支持。

关键词: 二氧化碳(CO2), 排放变化, 国家自主贡献预案(INDCs)

Abstract:

Examining the CO2 emissions by country in the future whether the mitigation plans are implemented or not, as well as their comparison with INDCs, is important to promote the ambition and cooperation on global long-term goal of climate change. A dynamic model of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion is established based on statistical analysis between economy and energy development using the latest data from the World Bank and International Energy Agency. Extending and planning scenarios are designed according to whether there exist additional and explicit efforts to mitigate climate change. Then annual CO2 emissions during 2016-2060 for the European Union, the United States, China and India are simulated and compared with INDCs respectively, from which three main conclusions are derived. (1) In planning scenario China will achieve its INDCs. For detail, the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in China will be 63.6% lower than the level of 2005 and the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption will increase to 24.7%. Besides, China will reach the emission peak 11277±643 Mt CO2 in 2030, which is 10 years earlier and almost 3000 Mt CO2 lower than the peak of extending scenario. (2) In planning scenario, the CO2 emissions of EU and US will significantly decrease and the growth rate of India will slow down, which makes EU and India achieve their INDCs likely but US still has a gap around 300 Mt CO2. (3) INDCs are ambitious for all countries, especially for China and US. However, making further efforts on global warming mitigation to control the temperature rise below 2 ℃ or even 1.5 ℃, which requires the developed countries to play an important role on policy, technique and finance, including promoting carbon capture and storage technique, achieving negative growth of CO2 emissions, and providing support for developing countries.

Key words: carbon dioxide, emission variation, INDCs