1982-2010年中国县市尺度流动人口核算及地域类型演化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201712002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

县市是中国新型城镇化发展过程中调控流动人口的重要单元。本文系统梳理了1982年、1990年、2000年、2010年四期人口普查的流动人口统计口径,根据地理流数据的空间尺度转换原则,核算四期人口普查县市尺度的流入人口和流出人口,构建对应的流动人口空间数据库。并提出新的修正复合指标法,划分出6种流动人口地域类型,包括大规模净流入活跃型、小规模净流入活跃型、大规模净流出活跃型、小规模净流出活跃型、平衡活跃型、非活跃型,据此分析中国流动人口地域类型的演化格局。主要结论为：① 中国流动人口地域类型经历了从不活跃到活跃、从相对均势到高度极化的演化过程,大部分地区逐步转化为净流出活跃型,流动人口向少数净流入活跃型县市集聚,51个大规模净流入活跃型县市集聚了全国55.85%的流入人口。② 中国流动人口地域类型在空间格局同样呈现高度极化的演化过程,形成长三角地区、珠三角地区2个流入人口高度集聚区,京、津及其他省会或首府等大城市则呈现单核式吸纳流入人口,净流出活跃型在“胡焕庸线”东南侧的“秦岭—淮河”以南地区呈现大面积扩张,成为中国最大的流出人口源区。③ 社会经济因素逐步成为影响流动人口集疏的主导因素,行政等级因素的作用也愈发突出。

关键词: 县市尺度, 流动人口, 核算, 地域类型, 中国

Abstract:

County-level units, which contain both counties and county-level cities, are the key floating population regulating units for China's new urbanization policy. This paper examines the statistical definitions of floating population for the censuses in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010. According to the principle of geographic data transformation among different spatial scales, the numbers of both the in-migrants and out-migrants at county level are calculated for each census. And the county-level spatial database of floating population is also built up. Besides, this paper puts forward a modified composite-index method to identify six types of the regional types of floating population, namely, large-scale active net in-migration, small-scale net in-migration, large-scale active net out-migration, large-scale active net out-migration, active balanced migration and inactive migration. Using this method, we analyze the spatial pattern evolution of China's floating population. The main results are listed as follows. (1) The regional types pattern of floating population transferred from inactive domination into active domination and from relative equilibrium into high polarization. Many regions turned into active net out-migration types. Most of the floating population moved into just a few cities which belongs to active net in-migration type. There were only 51 large-scale active net in-migration cities, but they occupied 55.85% of total inter-county in-migrants in China. (2) The spatial pattern of China's floating population regional types also presented a polarized feature. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in southeast coastal China are the main in-migrant floating population cluster regions, while Beijing, Tianjin and other provincial capitals are also main migration destinations with a monocentric pattern. The active net out-migration regions are mainly located in regions south of the "Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River" Line to the southeast of "Hu Line", which became the largest population losing area in China. (3) Social-economy was the major factor affecting the distribution of floating population regional types. Administration factor also gradually became a leading factor.

Key words: county-level, floating population, spatial statistics, regional types, China

戚伟, 赵美风, 刘盛和. 1982-2010年中国县市尺度流动人口核算及地域类型演化[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(12): 2131-2146.

Wei QI, Meifeng ZHAO, Shenghe LIU. Spatial statistics and regional types evolution of China's county-level floating population during 1982-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(12): 2131-2146.

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地域类型	数量占全国比重(%)							流入人口占全国比重(%)							流出人口占全国比重(%)
地域类型	1982#		1990#		2000#	2010#	2000	2010	1982#	1990#	2000#	2010#	2000	2010	1982#	1990#	2000#	2010#	2000	2010
净流入活跃型合计	0.09	1.48	6.98	10.25	7.02	10.19		1.01	12.78	61.07	72.79	61.08	72.76		0.03	0.79	5.01	12.17	5.00	12.16
其中：大规模净流入活跃型		0.04	0.83	2.29	0.81	2.22			2.46	38.90	55.93	38.82	55.85			0.08	2.42	7.06	2.42	7.05
其中：小规模净流入活跃型	0.09	1.44	6.15	7.96	6.21	7.97		1.01	10.32	22.17	16.86	22.26	16.91		0.03	0.71	2.59	5.11	2.58	5.11
净流出活跃型合计		0.13	12.43	37.23	12.04	36.22			0.07	2.51	6.71	2.51	6.70			1.36	34.94	61.52	34.91	61.48
其中：大规模净流出活跃型				0.27		0.26					0.26		0.26					1.98		1.98
其中：小规模净流出活跃型		0.13	12.43	36.96	12.04	35.96			0.07	2.51	6.45	2.51	6.44			1.36	34.94	59.54	34.91	59.50
平衡活跃型合计	0.48	2.57	19.59	27.52	19.06	27.38		1.46	10.20	18.76	17.62	18.75	17.64		0.55	2.96	25.48	20.29	25.47	20.30
非活跃型合计	99.43	95.82	61.00	25.00	61.88	26.21		97.53	76.95	17.66	2.88	17.66	2.90		99.42	94.89	34.57	6.02	34.62	6.06

解释变量	1982年			1990年				2000年				2010年
解释变量	净流入活跃型		平衡活跃型		净流入活跃型		平衡活跃型	净流出活跃型	净流入活跃型	平衡活跃型	净流出活跃型	净流入活跃型	平衡活跃型	净流出活跃型
lnEC	1.78	0.30		0.23	0.46	-1.38^***		1.15^***	0.58^***	-0.16		0.96^***	0.40^***	-0.06
JO	0.06	0.04^**		0.08^***	0.06^***	0.07^***		0.09^***	0.03^***	0.01		0.08^***	0.02^***	0.01^***
UR	0.13^***	0.03^**		0.00	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.03^***	0.04^***		0.01	0.02^***	0.01^*
lnED	-2.79	-0.63		-0.27	0.00	-1.25^***		1.25^***	0.10	-0.82^***		1.90^***	0.56^**	-0.45^***
AD1	-4.15	-15.76^***		-0.53	-0.20	-12.57^***		-2.19^**	-3.07^***	-16.70^***		13.79^***	12.12^***	-0.69^**
AD2	-7.15^***	-16.89^***		0.64	-0.11	-13.03^***		-1.86^***	-1.04^***	-1.85^***		1.45^***	1.80^***	0.59^***
AD3	13.41^***	-0.03		0.85	-0.17	-12.19^***		-0.12	-0.27	-0.75^***		0.32	-0.09	-0.63^***
lnRD	0.83	-0.38		0.03	0.23	0.63		0.10	-0.03	-0.07		0.66^***	0.43^***	0.19^***
lnPD	0.27	-0.94^***		-0.33^*	-0.34^***	1.10^**		-0.47^***	-0.23^***	0.06		-0.08	-0.03	0.22