珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象

doi:10.11821/dlxb201710006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

珠江三角洲是世界范围内经济和城镇发展“增长奇迹”的典型地区,当中以东莞为代表的“外向型城镇化”模式长期受到国内外学者的关注。然而,2008年的金融危机冲击对东莞经济造成巨大冲击,市域范围同时出现了普遍增长与局部收缩两种截然不同的新空间现象。随着中国经济步入新常态,城镇化快速发展过程中伴随的局部收缩现象逐渐引起学界和社会的广泛讨论。基于此,从城镇发展要素的集聚与流动出发,结合经济、人口和用地三个维度,提出理解城镇增长与收缩的分析框架,并对不同类型特征的城镇进行区分：持续增长、转型增长、潜在收缩与显著收缩。在实证分析部分,文章以东莞为案例,通过考察各镇街单元城镇增长与收缩的时间演变和空间格局,结合典型城镇案例分析,从经济危机冲击、刘易斯转折点、路径依赖存在、制度环境安排四个方面探讨东莞城镇增长与收缩的形成机制,最后对增长与收缩的未来深化研究方向进行讨论。

关键词: 城镇化, 收缩城市, 空间格局, 珠江三角洲, 东莞市

Abstract:

The Pearl River Delta (PRD), a typical area of rapid urbanization with Dongguan as its most representative case of the 'exo-urbanization' model, has thus long been attracting scholarly attention. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, a new spatial phenomenon has emerged in Dongguan, with overall growth and partial shrinkage taking place in the same city area. As the Chinese economy steps into a state of New Normal, partial shrinkage during a process of rapid urbanization has kindled heated debate. Starting from the vacancy phenomenon caused by the outflow of development factors, this paper has integrated three analytical dimensions, i.e., economy, population, and land, to put forward a framework for understanding urban growth and shrinkage. Four types of towns have been identified in Dongguan, featuring, respectively, continuous growth, resurgent growth, moderate shrinkage, and continuous shrinkage. Moreover, time trajectory and spatial pattern of growing and shrinking have been investigated to account for the distribution characteristic of urban growth and shrinkage. Then, through probing the shocks of economic crisis, Lewisian turning point, path dependence existence and institutional arrangement, we have analyzed the mechanisms of urban growth and shrinkage amid rapid urbanization in Dongguan. Conclusions and avenues for future research are discussed in the last section.

Key words: urbanization, shrinking city, spatial pattern, Pearl River Delta, Dongguan

杜志威, 李郇. 珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(10): 1800-1811.

Zhiwei DU, Xun LI. Growth or shrinkage: New phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10): 1800-1811.

图/表 6

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

图5

参考文献 48

[1]	Enright M J, Edith E Scott, Chang Ka-mun.Regional powerhouse: The Greater Pearl River Delta and the rise of China. Chichester: Wiley, 2005. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8306.2006.00517_9.x
[2]	Xu Xueqiang, Liu Qi, Zeng Xiangzhang, Development and Urbanization in Pearl River Delta. Guangzhou: Sun Yat-Sen University Press, 1988.
	[许学强, 刘琦, 曾祥章. 珠江三角洲的发展与城市化. 广州: 中山大学出版社, 1988.]
[3]	Sit Fung Shuen Victor, Yang Chun. Exo-urbanization: The case of the Zhujiang River Relta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1997 (3): 193-206. doi: 10.11821/xb199703001
	[薛凤旋、杨春. 外资: 发展中国家城市化的新动力: 珠江三角洲个案研究. 地理学报, 1997, 52(3): 193-206.] doi: 10.11821/xb199703001
[4]	Lin G C S. Peri-urbanism in globalizing China: A study of new urbanism in Dongguan. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2006, 47(1): 28-53. doi: 10.2747/1538-7216.47.1.28
[5]	Xu Xueqiang, Li Xun.Review and preview of the urbanization in Pearl River Delta in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. Economic Geography, 2009, 29(1): 13-18.
	[许学强, 李郇. 改革开放30年珠江三角洲城镇化的回顾与展望. 经济地理, 2009, 29(1): 13-18.]
[6]	Li Xun, Du Zhiwei, Li Xianfeng.The spatial distribution and mechanism of city shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta. Modern Urban Research, 2015(9): 36-43. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2015.09.005
	[李郇, 杜志威, 李先锋. 珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制. 现代城市研究, 2015(9): 36-43.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2015.09.005
[7]	Häußermann H, Siebel W.Die schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie In Soziologische Stadtforschung. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 1988: 78-94.
[8]	Oswalt P. Shrinking Cities, International Research, Vol. 1. Ostfildern, Hatje Crantz Verlag, 2006.
[9]	Martinez-Fernandez C, Audirac I, Fol S, et al.Shrinking cities: Urban challenges of globalization. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2012, 36(2): 213-225. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2427.2011.01092.x pmid: 22518881
[10]	Haase A, Rink D, Grossmann K, et al.Conceptualizing urban shrinkage. Environment and Planning A, 2014, 46(7): 1519-1534. doi: 10.1068/a46269
[11]	Wiechmann T.Errors expected: Aligning urban strategy with demographic uncertainty in shrinking cities. International Planning Studies, 2008, 13(4): 431-446. doi: 10.1080/13563470802519097
[12]	Schilling J, Logan J.Greening the rust belt: A green infrastructure model for right sizing America's shrinking cities. Journal of the American Planning Association, 2008, 74(4): 451-466. doi: 10.1080/01944360802354956
[13]	Mykhnenko V, Turok I.East European cities: Patterns of growth and decline, 1960-2005. International Planning Studies, 2008, 13(4): 311-342. doi: 10.1080/13563470802518958
[14]	Martinez-Fernandez C, Weyman T, Fol S, et al.Shrinking cities in Australia, Japan, Europe and the USA: From a global process to local policy responses. Progress in Planning, 2016, 105: 1-48. doi: 10.1016/j.progress.2014.10.001
[15]	Wiechmann T, Pallagst K M.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2012, 36(2): 261-280. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2427.2011.01095.x pmid: 22518884
[16]	Beauregard R A.Urban population loss in historical perspective: United States, 1820-2000. Environment and Planning A, 2009, 41(3): 514-528. doi: 10.1068/a40139a
[17]	Bartholomae F, Nam C W, Schoenberg A.Urban shrinkage and resurgence in Germany. Urban Studies, 2016: 0042098016657780. doi: 10.1177/0042098016657780
[18]	Fujii Y.Shrinkage in Japan//Shrinking Cities. Vol.1 International Research. Ostfildern, 2005: 96-100
[19]	Blanco H, Alberti M, Olshansky R, et al.Shaken, shrinking, hot, impoverished and informal: Emerging research agendas in planning. Progress in Planning, 2009, 72(4): 195-250. doi: 10.1016/j.progress.2009.09.001
[20]	Long Ying, Li Xun.Shrinking city: International experience and Chinese reality. Modern Urban Research, 2015(9): 1.
	[龙瀛, 李郇. 收缩城市:国际经验和中国现实. 现代城市研究, 2015(9): 1.]
[21]	Zhou Kai, Qian Fangfang.Shrinking city: On searching for urban development in non-growing scenarios. Modern Urban Research, 2015(9): 2-13.
	[周恺, 钱芳芳. 收缩城市:逆增长情景下的城市发展路径研究进展. 现代城市研究,2015(9): 2-13.]
[22]	Zhang Xueliang, Liu Yubo, Lyu Cunchao.Background, identification and feature analysis of shrinking cities in China. Journal of Southeast University (Philosophy and Social Science), 2016(4): 132-139, 148.
	[张学良, 刘玉博, 吕存超. 中国城市收缩的背景、识别与特征分析. 东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2016(4): 132-139, 148.]
[23]	Du Zhiwei, Li Xun.Concept, mechanism and planning suggestions of shrinking city: A perspective of capital flows from Neo-Marxism. Planners, 2017(1): 5-11.
	[杜志威, 李郇. 收缩城市的形成与规划启示: 基于新马克思主义城市理论的视角. 规划师, 2017(1): 5-11.]
[24]	Bertinelli L, Black D.Urbanization and growth. Journal of Urban Economics, 2004, 56(1): 80-96. doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2004.03.003
[25]	Quigley J M.Urbanization, agglomeration, and economic development. Urbanization and Growth, 2009: 115. doi: 10.1016/j.actbio.2006.08.004
[26]	Harvey D. The New Imperialism. Oxford University Press, USA, 2003.
[27]	Harvey D.The Limits to Capital (New and Fully Updated Edition). London and New York: Verso, 2006.
[28]	Friedmann J.Planning for the global cities: The endogenous development model. Urban Planning Forum, 2004, (4): 3-7, 95.
	[John Friedmann.规划全球城市: 内生式发展模式. 城市规划汇刊, 2004(4): 3-7, 95.]
[29]	Bartholomae F, Woon Nam C, Schoenberg A.Urban shrinkage and resurgence in Germany. Urban Studies, 2016: 0042098016657780. doi: 10.1177/0042098016657780
[30]	Long Ying, Wu Kang, Wang Jianghao.Shrinking cities in China. Modern Urban Research, 2015(9): 14-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2015.09.002
	[龙瀛, 吴康, 王江浩. 中国收缩城市及其研究框架. 现代城市研究, 2015(9): 14-19.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2015.09.002
[31]	Turok I, Mykhnenko V.The trajectories of European cities, 1960-2005. Cities, 2007, 24(3): 165-182. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2007.01.007
[32]	Kabisch N, Haase D, Haase A.Urban population development in Europe, 1991-2008: The examples of Poland and the UK. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2012, 36(6): 1326-1348. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2427.2012.01114.x
[33]	Alves D, Barreira A P, Guimarães M H, et al.Historical trajectories of currently shrinking Portuguese cities: A typology of urban shrinkage. Cities, 2016, 52: 20-29. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2015.11.008
[34]	Reis J P, Silva E A, Pinho P.Spatial metrics to study urban patterns in growing and shrinking cities. Urban Geography, 2016, 37(2): 246-271. doi: 10.1080/02723638.2015.1096118
[35]	Liu Helin.Research on quantitative calculation method of shrinking city. Modern Urban Research, 2016(2): 17-22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2016.02.004
	[刘合林. 收缩城市量化计算方法进展. 现代城市研究, 2016(2): 17-22.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2016.02.004
[36]	Elvidge C D, Cinzano P, Pettit D R, et al.The Nightsat mission concept. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2007, 28(12): 2645-2670. doi: 10.1080/01431160600981525
[37]	Elvidge C D, Sutton P C, Ghosh T, et al.A global poverty map derived from satellite data. Computers & Geosciences, 2009, 35(8): 1652-1660. doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2009.01.009
[38]	Knox P L, McCarthy L. Urbanization: An Introduction to Urban Geography. Boston: Pearson, 2012. doi: 10.1038/2001267e0
[39]	Wang Jici, et al.Innovative Spaces: Enterprise Clusters and Regional Development. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2001.
	[王缉慈, 等. 创新的空间: 企业集群与区域发展. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2001.]
[40]	Dai Jilin, Liang Guojian.Reason analysis of economic growth in Pearl River Delta. Economy in the Prerl River Delta, 2000(2): 7-13.
	[代吉林, 梁国坚. 珠江三角洲经济区经济快速增长原因探析. 珠江三角洲经济, 2000(2): 7-13.]
[41]	Cai Fang.Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and lewis turning point in China. Economic Research Journal, 2010(4): 4-13.
	[蔡昉. 人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点.经济研究, 2010(4): 4-13.]
[42]	Nelson R, Winter S.An evolutionary Theory of Economic Growth. Belknap-Harvard, Cambridge, MA, 1982.
[43]	Martin R, Sunley P.Path dependence and regional economic evolution. Journal of Economic Geography, 2006, 6(4): 395-437. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbl012
[44]	Frenken K, Boschma R A.A theoretical framework for evolutionary economic geography: Industrial dynamics and urban growth as a branching process. Journal of Economic Geography, 2007. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbm018
[45]	Martin P.Public policies, regional inequalities and growth. Journal of Public Economics, 1999, 73(1): 85-105. doi: 10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00110-8
[46]	Pike, Andy, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, John Tomaney. Handbook of Local and Regional Development. Routledge, 2010.
[47]	Jha A K, Miner T W, Stanton-Geddes Z.Building Urban Resilience: Principles, Tools, and Practice. World Bank Publications, 2013.
[48]	Martin R, Sunley P.On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, 2015, 15: 1-42. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbu015

城镇类型	主要特征	所属城镇
持续增长	通过传统制造业与现代服务业结合,或推动先进制造业升级,不断吸引资本要素和人口要素的流入,实现了经济、人口和用地三者良性循环;	松山湖、东城街道、南城街道、虎门镇、麻涌镇、厚街镇、大朗镇、谢岗镇、东坑镇
转型增长	受到金融危机影响出现人口收缩,通过“机器换人”和技术创新的方式,推动劳动密集型产业转型升级,实现了经济的重新增长;	长安镇、寮步镇、沙田镇、凤岗镇、桥头镇
潜在收缩	主导产业处于比较劣势,缺乏明确的城镇转型方向路径,虽然城镇人口数量保持稳定,但经济指标持续下滑面临着收缩的风险;	常平镇、清溪镇、横沥镇、企石镇、石排镇、石龙镇、石碣镇、洪梅镇、莞城街道、万江街道
显著收缩	城镇原有经济与人口基础较薄弱,金融危机冲击过后城镇收缩凸显,在经济指标低增速的同时,人口数量持续出现负增长。	望牛墩镇、道滘镇、中堂镇、高埗镇、茶山镇、大岭山镇、黄江镇、塘厦镇、樟木头镇