中国老年人口分布的集疏格局及其形成机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201710003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国已全面进入快速老龄化社会,研究老龄人口空间集疏格局及形成机制,不仅是开展老龄人口空间研究的理论基础,也是指导面向老龄化社会城市更新问题的关键所在。选取地级以上行政单元为研究对象,基于五普、六普老年人口数据,采用老龄化率、集聚度和空间自相关等方法,定量分析2000年和2010年全国城市老年人口分布的集疏格局及空间关联。研究表明：全国地级以上城市总体处于老龄化中期水平,城市间老龄化空间分异较大,老年人口密集区城市主要分布在胡焕庸线以东,稀疏区城市则均位于胡焕庸线以西,这与总人口分布状况基本一致;高密区城市基本都分布在东部沿海地区,中密区主要分布在长三角、珠三角、中原、山东半岛、成渝和京津冀地区,为中国分布范围最广的老年人口集聚区;城市间人口老龄化存在较强的空间正相关特征,空间集聚状况有所增强,人口老龄化空间格局表现出以热点区为中心,逐渐向外围过渡的“中心—外围”结构;自然环境、经济环境、城市化建设、人口环境等是导致老年人口集疏格局的关键形成因素。

关键词: 老年人口分布, 集疏格局, 形成机制, 地级城市, 中国

Abstract:

China has stepped into a rapid aging society. The study on the spatial pattern and generating mechanism of the aging population is not only the theoretical foundation for the spatial research on aging population, but also the guiding principle of the upgrading of aging society. This study selected administrative units above the prefecture level as subjects and quantitatively analyzed the spatial pattern and association of the aging population distribution in cities in 2000 and 2010, based on data of the fifth and sixth censuses and the methods like aging population rate, aggregation degree and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that, cities above prefecture level all over the county are generally in the middle stage of aging, aging spatial differentiation is greater among cities, cities in densely aging-populated areas are mainly located to the east of Hu Line, and cities in sparsely aging-populated areas are all found to the west of Hu Line, which coincide with the national population distribution. Most of the cities with high density are distributed in the eastern coastal areas, and cities with medium density are mostly in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Central Plains, Shandong Peninsula, Chengdu-Chongqing Region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, which dominate the aging population areas. There is an obvious positive spatial association in aging population among cities, the spatial aggregation is further enhanced, and the spatial pattern of population aging shows a "Core-Periphery" structure with the hot-spots as the center and gradually spreading to the outskirts; natural environment, economic condition, urbanization construction, and population environment and the like are the key factors influencing the spatial pattern of the aging population.

Key words: aging population distribution, spatial pattern, generating mechanism, prefecture-level city, China

赵东霞, 韩增林, 王利. 中国老年人口分布的集疏格局及其形成机制[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(10): 1762-1775.

Dongxia ZHAO, Zenglin HAN, Li WANG. The spatial pattern of aging population distribution and its generating mechanism in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10): 1762-1775.

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老年人口集聚度地区			人口			土地			老年人口密度(人/km²)
分类(个)			总量 (万人)	比例(%)		面积	比例		极值	平均值
分类(个)				比例(%)		(万km²)	(%)		(最小值/最大值)	平均值
老年人口密集地区	高度密集区(15)			1828.5	10.48		12.04	1.31		149.91/547.26	199.80
	中度密集区(76)			5457.6	31.28		56.29	6.13		74.99/146.10	98.19
	低度密集区(65)			4739.8	27.16		86.14	9.38		37.02/72.53	55.46
	小计(156)			11572.1	69.33		154.47	16.82		37.02/547.26	90.91
老年人口均值地区	密度均上区(79)			3337.7	19.13		128.53	14.00		18.87/36.62	26.81
	密度均下区(43)		1312.0	7.52		97.58	10.62		9.58/18.21	13.54
	小计(122)	4578.7	26.24		226.11	24.62		9.58/36.62	22.09
老年人口稀疏地区	相对稀疏区(19)	410.8	2.35		66.55	7.25		4.02/8.69	6.23
	绝对稀疏区(17)	240.5	1.38		129.74	14.13		1.16/3.44	1.98
	极端稀疏区(19)	123.0	0.70		344.14	37.47		0.02/0.89	0.44
	小计(55)	774.3	4.44		540.43	58.85		0.02/8.69	2.92

名称	总人口(万人)	占全国比重(%)	人口密度(人/km²)	集聚度
长江三角洲(16)	1 664.96	9.54	162.58	8.79
珠江三角洲(9)	423.80	2.43	100.97	5.46
中原城市群(8)	499.13	2.86	97.74	5.28
山东半岛(8)	670.52	3.84	90.36	4.88
成渝地区(15)	1 540.46	8.83	80.93	4.37
京津冀(13)	1 348.71	7.73	75.83	4.10
海峡西岸(16)	863.24	4.95	71.69	3.87
长江中游(25)	1 497.50	8.58	54.18	2.93
关中城市群(6)	332.51	1.91	49.19	2.66
东北城市群(21)	1 144.74	6.56	37.14	2.01
合计	9 985.57	57.23	82.06	4.44

年份	Moran's I	Z(I)	P值
2000年	0.452	22.657	< 0.001
2010年	0.490	24.609	< 0.001

变量	符号	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
老龄化率	agpop	322	0.13	0.03	0.03	0.24
海拔高程	elev	322	517.56	842.35	0	4506
干燥度	dryn	322	1612.74	4572.02	-9	73756
湿润度	wett	322	1603.34	3484.16	-5886	10937
初始人口密度	depop	322	277.20	254.56	0.19	2156.50
人均GDP	GDPPC	322	41228.16	28193.14	5035	249040
每千人拥有床位数	thoubeds	322	12.39	7.99	0	43.49
人口迁入率	movpop	322	0.11	0.12	0	0.80
少数民族比	minopop	322	13.96	25.07	0.01	97.19
非农人口比	nonagr	322	29.72	15.68	6.49	86.23

变量	全部样本	分区域模型			分民族模型
变量	全部样本	东部	中部	西部	少数民族城市	非少数民族城市
elev	-0.0000037^** (-2.52)	0.0000051^** （2.09）		-0.0000072^*** （-3.68）	-0.0000057^** (-2.63)	-0.0000095^*** (-3.11)
dryn						-0.0000037^** (-2.11)
wett	0.0000017^*** (4.62)		0.0000017^*** (3.51)	0.0000020^*** (4.04)	0.0000025^*** (4.21)
depop				0.0000636^*** (4.41)	0.0000922^** (2.40)
GDPPC	0.0000001^** (2.13)	0.0000003^** (2.45)
thoubeds				0.0007962^*** (3.03)	0.0008799^*** (3.35)
movpop	-0.1172386^*** (-8.99)	-0.1398665^*** (-7.71)	-0.0811986^*** （-3.59）	-0.1522751^*** (-4.32)	-0.1575366^*** (-4.21)	-0.0997951^*** (-8.69)
minopop	-0.0003505^*** (-6.06)			-0.0001609^** (-2.35)
nonagr	0.0003270^*** (3.60)	0.0004778^** （2.60）	0.0002273^** （2.16）	0.0007538^*** (3.54)	0.0008126^*** (4.11)	0.0003293^*** (3.46)
Intercept	0.1314035^*** (36.36)	0.1271678^*** （18.19）	0.1275000^*** (33.87)	0.1120069^*** (13.57)	0.0945765^*** (11.45)	0.1429136^*** (44.93)
N	322	100	114	108	55	267
调整R²	0.386	0.408	0.218	0.733	0.745	0.265
F	36.04	18.04	11.47	41.83	27.33	24.93